Polling samples

[Liability]

Virginia?

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat Republican 16-18 Sep 12 LV 38% 33
(Independent / Other) 26
(Don’t know / Refused) 4

-- http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...y-voters-in-virginia-favor-obama-over-romney/

38 D to 33 R

Now, Virginia did lean Democrat (in 2008 as per Gallup, the gap was ~9%). State of the States: Political Party Affiliation

I don't know what that gap might be today, but I doubt it's still that high. It looks like in 2010, the State had shifted to a slight GOP edge: Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And that makes the 5% D polling sample "edge" in the FoxNews poll results at least a bit suspect.

 

[Liability]

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

I already linked an answer, you incredibly dense piece of worthless hack lib shit.

And the answer I linked COULD be off. But it probably isn't off so badly that Dims should be sampled in double digits MORE than Republicans.

You linked to Rasmussen, the pro-Republican outlier in most of the polls.

Your whining bitchy complaint about Rasmussen is bullshit, of course.

But, in any case, as you have now acknowledged, I did provide an answer already.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Foxnews is just out with state polls showing Obama with BIG leads in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

Does anyone want to write that off as part of the liberal media's polling conspiracy?

I went to the source, picking one state at random. Florida.

FL.:

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers September 16-18, 2012, among a random sample of 829 Florida likely voters (LV), including additional interviews (an oversample) of 77 randomly selected Hispanics.

Is it a pure coincidence that the RESULTS are:

2. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were: [ROTATE 1-2] [IF NOT SURE, ASK] Well, which way are you leaning?
Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden 49%
Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (Other) 44 2
(Wouldn’t vote) -
(Don’t know) 5

AND:

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat Republican 16-18 Sep 12 LV 42% 37
(Independent / Other) 20
(Don’t know / Refused) 1

In a state with a slight voter registration edge for Dims but solid Republican majorities statewide, that 5% point spread strikes me as being pretty damn suspect.

If there is a flaw in the methodology of the telephone polling, perhaps it has to get identified and addressed. But it sure as hell doesn't seem to be accurate.

One need not engage in any "conspiracy theory" speculation. The numbers themselves suggest the existence of at least a methodological problem.

Feel obligated to deny it.


EDIT: the SOURCE of the polling results/quotes referenced above is: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...e-over-romney-among-likely-voters-in-florida/

How did Foxnews poll get the 2008 election on the nose if they used flawed methodology?