Polling samples

[NYcarbineer]

Come on Mr Lonestar Liberia - TRY and understand this.

If a party has 46% support in the real world, and as a pollster I cam going to call 100 people, then 46 of the people I call should support that party, right?

That way my research will have achieved an accurate portrayal of the real world support.

In a random sample, it is doubtful that you would hit that 46% mark. Out of your 100 cold calls, somewhere AROUND 46% would (in terms of probability) be from that Party. But the margin of error (call it 5%) would mean that you might end up with anywhere between 41 or 51.

On the other hand, if we have reason to believe that slightly more folks are actually Republicans than Democratics with somewhere less than a third being Indys,* then it is rather odd that so many of the polls reveal a disproportionately higher number of Democratics getting polled.

And that DOES skew the results.

Bottom line? The left wing main stream media outright lies and distorts and does so deliberately.

__________________
* Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - knowing as we do that FOXNEWS is in no way a part of the liberal media -

showing Obama up by 5?

That, btw, is tied for highest margin for Obama of all the polls in the current realclear average.

How is it a liberal media conspiracy for NBC to have Obama +5, CBS Obama +3, AP Obama +1,

while Fox has Obama +5???

Would not the simplest test of the validity of a claim of a liberal media conspiracy be to compare the so-called liberal media polls to the non-liberal, or conservative media polls?

Wouldn't there have to be some measureable difference IN the polls?

 

[Liability]

Come on Mr Lonestar Liberia - TRY and understand this.

If a party has 46% support in the real world, and as a pollster I cam going to call 100 people, then 46 of the people I call should support that party, right?

That way my research will have achieved an accurate portrayal of the real world support.

In a random sample, it is doubtful that you would hit that 46% mark. Out of your 100 cold calls, somewhere AROUND 46% would (in terms of probability) be from that Party. But the margin of error (call it 5%) would mean that you might end up with anywhere between 41 or 51.

On the other hand, if we have reason to believe that slightly more folks are actually Republicans than Democratics with somewhere less than a third being Indys,* then it is rather odd that so many of the polls reveal a disproportionately higher number of Democratics getting polled.

And that DOES skew the results.

Bottom line? The left wing main stream media outright lies and distorts and does so deliberately.

__________________
* Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - * * * *

Suck on this. You are not even original on that pointless IN this very thread, you mindless nimrod.

 

[Liability]

And yet, even very conservative pollsters like FOX poll more dems.

Perhaps instead of a national conspiracy to defraud conservatives, its something simple like, more people call themselves dem but consider themselves conservative, or more dems are willing to be polled.

To some extent the reason for the oversampling of Dims is too consistent to be mere coincidence.

But regardless, the point remains that the fact of such over-sampling DOES tend to skew the result.

And just as (intentionally or inadvertently) oversampling Dims skews the result, so too does interviewing REGISTERED voters rather than LIKELY voters.

It really isn't even debatable.

The main stream liberal media's hell-bent intent to breathlessly then report these erroneous figures does seem to be designed to dishearten GOP voters.

How do you account for oversampling vs an actual reflection of the population?

Why is EVERY poll from both the left and the right showing the same thing?

I don't account for it. And not every poll is showing it.

 

[Zander]

This massive "self soothing" by liberals is truly enjoyable to watch... 48 days bitches, 48 days..

 

[depotoo]

Come on Mr Lonestar Liberia - TRY and understand this.

If a party has 46% support in the real world, and as a pollster I cam going to call 100 people, then 46 of the people I call should support that party, right?

That way my research will have achieved an accurate portrayal of the real world support.

In a random sample, it is doubtful that you would hit that 46% mark. Out of your 100 cold calls, somewhere AROUND 46% would (in terms of probability) be from that Party. But the margin of error (call it 5%) would mean that you might end up with anywhere between 41 or 51.

On the other hand, if we have reason to believe that slightly more folks are actually Republicans than Democratics with somewhere less than a third being Indys,* then it is rather odd that so many of the polls reveal a disproportionately higher number of Democratics getting polled.

And that DOES skew the results.

Bottom line? The left wing main stream media outright lies and distorts and does so deliberately.

__________________
* Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - knowing as we do that FOXNEWS is in no way a part of the liberal media -

showing Obama up by 5?

That, btw, is tied for highest margin for Obama of all the polls in the current realclear average.

How is it a liberal media conspiracy for NBC to have Obama +5, CBS Obama +3, AP Obama +1,

while Fox has Obama +5???

Would not the simplest test of the validity of a claim of a liberal media conspiracy be to compare the so-called liberal media polls to the non-liberal, or conservative media polls?

Wouldn't there have to be some measureable difference IN the polls?

That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.

 

[NYcarbineer]

In a random sample, it is doubtful that you would hit that 46% mark. Out of your 100 cold calls, somewhere AROUND 46% would (in terms of probability) be from that Party. But the margin of error (call it 5%) would mean that you might end up with anywhere between 41 or 51.

On the other hand, if we have reason to believe that slightly more folks are actually Republicans than Democratics with somewhere less than a third being Indys,* then it is rather odd that so many of the polls reveal a disproportionately higher number of Democratics getting polled.

And that DOES skew the results.

Bottom line? The left wing main stream media outright lies and distorts and does so deliberately.

__________________
* Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - * * * *

Suck on this. You are not even original on that pointless IN this very thread, you mindless nimrod.

Not one word of intelligent rebuttal from you. Of course that's because what I said is irrefutable.

Your insane premise that there is a liberal media conspiracy in the polling requires that one believe that FOXNEWS is a party to that liberal conspiracy.

That leads to the question:

What is the motive of a conservative cable news channel like Foxnews to join into a supposed liberal media conspiracy over the polls?

Can anyone answer that? Or can we all just accept the fact that there is no such conspiracy...

 

[Liability]

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - * * * *

Suck on this. You are not even original on that pointless IN this very thread, you mindless nimrod.

Not one word of intelligent rebuttal from you. Of course that's because what I said is irrefutable.

Your insane premise that there is a liberal media conspiracy in the polling requires that one believe that FOXNEWS is a party to that liberal conspiracy.

That leads to the question:

What is the motive of a conservative cable news channel like Foxnews to join into a supposed liberal media conspiracy over the polls?

Can anyone answer that? Or can we all just accept the fact that there is no such conspiracy...

A brain dead hack troll bitch like you, Carbuncle, can't recognize intelligence, anyway. So your assessment is valueless.

As I DID say (intelligently and correctly) before, however: with or without a "conspiracy," a poor sampling does skew the results.

And a shithead hack lying sack of pus like you cannot even begin to address that point.

 

[NYcarbineer]

In a random sample, it is doubtful that you would hit that 46% mark. Out of your 100 cold calls, somewhere AROUND 46% would (in terms of probability) be from that Party. But the margin of error (call it 5%) would mean that you might end up with anywhere between 41 or 51.

On the other hand, if we have reason to believe that slightly more folks are actually Republicans than Democratics with somewhere less than a third being Indys,* then it is rather odd that so many of the polls reveal a disproportionately higher number of Democratics getting polled.

And that DOES skew the results.

Bottom line? The left wing main stream media outright lies and distorts and does so deliberately.

__________________
* Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Answer this.

If the current polling data showing Obama in the lead is a liberal media conspiracy,
why is the latest FOXNEWS poll - knowing as we do that FOXNEWS is in no way a part of the liberal media -

showing Obama up by 5?

That, btw, is tied for highest margin for Obama of all the polls in the current realclear average.

How is it a liberal media conspiracy for NBC to have Obama +5, CBS Obama +3, AP Obama +1,

while Fox has Obama +5???

Would not the simplest test of the validity of a claim of a liberal media conspiracy be to compare the so-called liberal media polls to the non-liberal, or conservative media polls?

Wouldn't there have to be some measureable difference IN the polls?

That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.

Are you saying that makes it a good poll?

Or are you saying that Foxnews is skewing the numbers in favor of Obama?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Suck on this. You are not even original on that pointless IN this very thread, you mindless nimrod.

Not one word of intelligent rebuttal from you. Of course that's because what I said is irrefutable.

Your insane premise that there is a liberal media conspiracy in the polling requires that one believe that FOXNEWS is a party to that liberal conspiracy.

That leads to the question:

What is the motive of a conservative cable news channel like Foxnews to join into a supposed liberal media conspiracy over the polls?

Can anyone answer that? Or can we all just accept the fact that there is no such conspiracy...

A brain dead hack troll bitch like you, Carbuncle, can't recognize intelligence, anyway. So your assessment is valueless.

As I DID say (intelligently and correctly) before, however: with or without a "conspiracy," a poor sampling does skew the results.

And a shithead hack lying sack of pus like you cannot even begin to address that point.

Is the Foxnews poll skewed in favor of Obama, yes or no?

 

[Liability]

Not one word of intelligent rebuttal from you. Of course that's because what I said is irrefutable.

Your insane premise that there is a liberal media conspiracy in the polling requires that one believe that FOXNEWS is a party to that liberal conspiracy.

That leads to the question:

What is the motive of a conservative cable news channel like Foxnews to join into a supposed liberal media conspiracy over the polls?

Can anyone answer that? Or can we all just accept the fact that there is no such conspiracy...

A brain dead hack troll bitch like you, Carbuncle, can't recognize intelligence, anyway. So your assessment is valueless.

As I DID say (intelligently and correctly) before, however: with or without a "conspiracy," a poor sampling does skew the results.

And a shithead hack lying sack of pus like you cannot even begin to address that point.

Is the Foxnews poll skewed in favor of Obama, yes or no?

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

 

[Liability]

Give it about a week AFTER 10/3/2012: The polling numbers are not going to be pretty for the incumbent.

And it will not even matter all that much that there will likely still be oversampling of Dims and that the inclusion of just Registered Voters is the preferred methodology.

 

[NYcarbineer]

A brain dead hack troll bitch like you, Carbuncle, can't recognize intelligence, anyway. So your assessment is valueless.

As I DID say (intelligently and correctly) before, however: with or without a "conspiracy," a poor sampling does skew the results.

And a shithead hack lying sack of pus like you cannot even begin to address that point.

Is the Foxnews poll skewed in favor of Obama, yes or no?

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

 

[depotoo]

Is the Foxnews poll skewed in favor of Obama, yes or no?

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

you tell us, why don't you. What is the correct sample and how do you know what it is?
From my earlier post regarding the numbers -
That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

you tell us, why don't you. What is the correct sample and how do you know what it is?
From my earlier post regarding the numbers -
That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.

I'm not the one accusing all these polls of 'oversampling'.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

you tell us, why don't you. What is the correct sample and how do you know what it is?
From my earlier post regarding the numbers -
That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.

I asked you about that poll you didn't answer.

 

[Liability]

Is the Foxnews poll skewed in favor of Obama, yes or no?

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

I already linked an answer, you incredibly dense piece of worthless hack lib shit.

And the answer I linked COULD be off. But it probably isn't off so badly that Dims should be sampled in double digits MORE than Republicans.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If (and to whatever extent) it over-samples Dims, then the answer is plainly "yes," you dope.

And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?

I already linked an answer, you incredibly dense piece of worthless hack lib shit.

And the answer I linked COULD be off. But it probably isn't off so badly that Dims should be sampled in double digits MORE than Republicans.

You linked to Rasmussen, the pro-Republican outlier in most of the polls.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Foxnews is just out with state polls showing Obama with BIG leads in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

Does anyone want to write that off as part of the liberal media's polling conspiracy?

 

[Liability]

Foxnews is just out with state polls showing Obama with BIG leads in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

Does anyone want to write that off as part of the liberal media's polling conspiracy?

I went to the source, picking one state at random. Florida.

FL.:

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers September 16-18, 2012, among a random sample of 829 Florida likely voters (LV), including additional interviews (an oversample) of 77 randomly selected Hispanics.

Is it a pure coincidence that the RESULTS are:

2. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were: [ROTATE 1-2] [IF NOT SURE, ASK] Well, which way are you leaning?
Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden 49%
Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (Other) 44 2
(Wouldn’t vote) -
(Don’t know) 5

AND:

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat Republican 16-18 Sep 12 LV 42% 37
(Independent / Other) 20
(Don’t know / Refused) 1

In a state with a slight voter registration edge for Dims but solid Republican majorities statewide, that 5% point spread strikes me as being pretty damn suspect.

If there is a flaw in the methodology of the telephone polling, perhaps it has to get identified and addressed. But it sure as hell doesn't seem to be accurate.

One need not engage in any "conspiracy theory" speculation. The numbers themselves suggest the existence of at least a methodological problem.

Feel obligated to deny it.


EDIT: the SOURCE of the polling results/quotes referenced above is: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...e-over-romney-among-likely-voters-in-florida/

 

[Liability]

Ohio?

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican? (Independent (Don’t know / Other) / Refused) 21 1
Democrat Republican 16-18 Sep 12 LV 42% 36

42 D to 36 R

Really?