"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)...."
It's not the flu, it's not the flu.....oh, shit it's the flu.
We've been seeing a lot of reworking of these types of numbers over the past few days and most, if not all, that I've seen indicate that this was highly overestimated in terms of mortality rate and other metrics.
NOT discussing bringing elements of the economy back online in light of this data makes no sense whatsoever.
In the main hospital in Albany Georgia, every bed is full with Coronavirus patients. They have no more capacity left. That NEVER happens during flu season, and it is starting to happen in multiple cities around the country whether small or large! You'll soon see make shift morgues to handle the dead outside these hospitals as the body count rises. Does that happen during flu season? NO!
You wanna know why this is not the FLU, just ask any ER doctor in New York City! This is an unprecedented disaster! No one is going to go back to work to a non-essential service because that aids the virus in finding new host and increases the number of people that die.
There were 54,000 infections on March 24 in the United States. By the end of the day on March 27, there were 104,000 infections. That level of exponential growth, doubling every 3 to 4 days, will produce 5 million infections by Easter and a death toll of 50,000! The ENEMY, this PATHOGEN, has to be defeated before any non-essential service can open up again. Take this exponential growth to the end of April, and 1 million Americans would die because over 100 million would be infected! The daily infection rate increase must be cut from the average of 22% down below 8% and SOON!
Yes, and that's why we're trying to flatten the curve to keep from overwhelming the medical system, which makes sense, however, these prognostications of millions dead are looking increasingly wrong.
I cited the article. Fauci's name is on it, BTW. If you'd like to take issue with it, go ahead.
We are seeing growth in the numbers of cases here because we've just implemented larger scale testing and, of course, it is still spreading. Everyone, literally everyone, expected the numbers to spike once larger scale testing was implemented and, of course, they are.
Discussing opening up sections of the economy where the data indicates lesser risk makes sense. I know you think we should basically just dig a hole and climb in, as I've seen your posts, but we cannot do that indefinitely. If the data says otherwise, and it is beginning to look like the early numbers were flat wrong, that makes no sense. We have to strike a balance here.....