Fueri
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- Nov 16, 2015
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"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)...."
It's not the flu, it's not the flu.....oh, shit it's the flu.
We've been seeing a lot of reworking of these types of numbers over the past few days and most, if not all, that I've seen indicate that this was highly overestimated in terms of mortality rate and other metrics.
NOT discussing bringing elements of the economy back online in light of this data makes no sense whatsoever.
In the main hospital in Albany Georgia, every bed is full with Coronavirus patients. They have no more capacity left. That NEVER happens during flu season, and it is starting to happen in multiple cities around the country whether small or large! You'll soon see make shift morgues to handle the dead outside these hospitals as the body count rises. Does that happen during flu season? NO!
You wanna know why this is not the FLU, just ask any ER doctor in New York City! This is an unprecedented disaster! No one is going to go back to work to a non-essential service because that aids the virus in finding new host and increases the number of people that die.
There were 54,000 infections on March 24 in the United States. By the end of the day on March 27, there were 104,000 infections. That level of exponential growth, doubling every 3 to 4 days, will produce 5 million infections by Easter and a death toll of 50,000! The ENEMY, this PATHOGEN, has to be defeated before any non-essential service can open up again. Take this exponential growth to the end of April, and 1 million Americans would die because over 100 million would be infected! The daily infection rate increase must be cut from the average of 22% down below 8% and SOON!
Yes, and that's why we're trying to flatten the curve to keep from overwhelming the medical system, which makes sense, however, these prognostications of millions dead are looking increasingly wrong.
I cited the article. Fauci's name is on it, BTW. If you'd like to take issue with it, go ahead.
We are seeing growth in the numbers of cases here because we've just implemented larger scale testing and, of course, it is still spreading. Everyone, literally everyone, expected the numbers to spike once larger scale testing was implemented and, of course, they are.
Discussing opening up sections of the economy where the data indicates lesser risk makes sense. I know you think we should basically just dig a hole and climb in, as I've seen your posts, but we cannot do that indefinitely. If the data says otherwise, and it is beginning to look like the early numbers were flat wrong, that makes no sense. We have to strike a balance here.....
We can lock down non-essential services indefinitely. This is a national emergency. I hope the exponential growth is stopped, but if it is not, with doubling every three days and a 1% death rate, by the end of April with those stats, you will see 1 million dead Americans. That's basic math. There were 54,000 infections on March 24 and that nearly doubled by March 27 with 104,000 infections. A 1.6% death rate. At that rate, you will have 1 million dead Americans by the end of April! That's what the basic math shows.
There is NO reason for NON-ESSENTIAL services to be reopened for the next 3 months or 6 months if necessary. This is a national crises. The two ways you defeat this PATHOGEN are LOCKDOWN and increased testing.
There is overwhelming evidence of what happens when you don't lockdown and increase testing. There is NO EVIDENCE that shutting down non-essential services for 3 months or 3 years would not be something the country could not come back from.
Look at what happened during the Great Depression and World War II. Shutting down non-essential services is key to defeating this enemy, and every day you don't do that, you EXTEND THE CRISES which makes the overall economic hardship greater.
No, we cannot just lock down non-essential services indefinitely.
Millions of people will not survive financially indefinitely with a few grand from the government. There is no bailout large enough to stave off what will happen under some indefinite shutdown. Unemployment will continue to skyrocket, business will fold, bankruptcies will mount, foreclosures will follow. These things are going to happen already and the longer this goes on the larger those numbers will get as more and more people are pushed underwater.
Locking everything down does not shorten the timeframe here. I'm not sure where you got that idea but it is wrong. If anything it extends the timeframe. Flattening the curve does not necessarily mean less cases- it spreads them over time, which results in a longer timeframe. All we need to do is look at the x-axis on any one of the graphs already put out, which plot time vs cases to see that. We can hope as spring arrives some of this will lessen, and maybe it will, but that's uncertain.
If the data indicates it we need to reshape our thinking as that data evolves. That data seems to have been updated by the same experts most people have been telling us we should be looking to for answers, and we are looking at new information just over the last few days. This new data seemingly contradicts a lot of what we have been told to this point which has shaped our thinking and our strategies. We need to incorporate updated information into our decision-making process here and not just sit in the most conservative position possible across the entire country.
There has to be an end game here and we need to start figuring out what that looks like and continue moving forward. Just locking down nationally indefinitely is not a plan, nor is waiting until we have a vaccine, as that's a year+ out.
This is a national emergency. Non-essential business's, their closure, the unemployment levels are irrelevant to defeating the Pathogen and saving lives. Most experts believe that the lockdown is the best way to save lives, protect the healthcare system, as well as protect the economy. The non-essential business's can reopen when this WAR is over. There may be multiple shut down cycles we go through before a vaccine is available and used.
Thousands of non-essential business's shut down during World War II and over 16 million men were taken out of the economy and sent over seas to fight in foreign countries. This is what happens in a national emergency and the country can maintain this for years if necessary, because it has in the past.
The most in debt this country ever was, was the year after World War II ended.
Also, it is NOT for sure, that there will be another outbreak after this lockdown is lifted or that if there is one that it will be as bad. More importantly, it would have saved lives, bought the medical and scientific community time, and we would be closer to a vaccine.
The fact is, the lockdown plan is what 99% of the nations on earth have adopted and plan to pursue until the pathogen is defeated.
The idiots that want to reopen non-essential services are in the minority. Even if your non-essential business reopens, no one is going to go there or use it in the middle of the pandemic.
Continuing to repeat the same thing over and over again doesnt make it more true.
Nor is this an either-or choice on a global level for the entire country. Some areas are, and will, be more effected. Some portions of the population are more at risk than others.
And yes, it is all but certain that the disease will not be simply 'defeated' and will continue to circulate during any lockdown only to re-emerge once it is lifted. Without a vaccine or some amount of herd immunity to begin to shift numbers from those susceptible to those not susceptible, that is nothing but simple math.
All of the histrionics in the world won't save people's homes and futures from some misapplied global lockdown. The country must, and will, open up in areas where it can while remaining vigilant to keep the infection numbers within the ability of the system to handle them. That is all these measures have ever been intended to do, as most people realize that economic considerations have to be part of our calculus, whether we like it or not.
And, again, as you seem to be ignoring this fact completely, the data we had 2 weeks ago is apparently not what experts are saying now. We don't plot a course based on old data, nor should we.
We're not doing this for years. That you think that throwing millions of families out of their homes with no way to earn money to even feed themselves and destabilizing our economy for decades is a better option than phasing economic activity back in where possible honestly baffles the heck out of me.