There's been almost a 96% correlation between crude oil futures and the stock market over the last several months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude oil for December delivery was racing ahead by $3.37 to $93.57 a barrel, while the December Brent crude contract was gaining $2.63 to $111.54 a barrel as the dollar fell 1.1% against the euro at 71 cents.
Improved U.S. gross domestic product data also provided a much-needed boost for oil prices, with the economy growing 2.5%, as expected, in the third quarter, according to an initial reading on gross domestic product. That compares with growth of 1.3% in the second quarter. "Certainly, the news out of Europe is short-term bullish for oil prices," says Tradition Energy's senior market research director Addison Armstrong. "Technically, the prompt WTI contract looks like it could move up to $100 fairly easily. The dollar, which is under a lot of pressure today, is also supportive of crude."
But Armstrong says he's not celebrating just yet, because longer-term, there are still many things that need to go right over the next few weeks and months for the "European patient to be given a clean bill of health." "There are warnings," says Armstrong, "that the rescue plan will have a negative impact on credit creation in Europe and that the region may slip into recession over the next two or three quarters." A recession, of course, would lead to lower energy demand.
BGC Financial director Roger Volz, who says that "crude is following the global equity surge -- taking back yesterday's inventories slip," notes that WTI December prices may meet some resistance to further upside with a close at $94.90, with the resistance tension emerging at the $94.20. Meanwhile, a settlement of $90.70 remains supportive of further short-term gains in WTI prices. Energy stocks were rallying in premarket trading.
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