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First time I was eligible to vote, Bush beat Gore in PA. I voted for Gore. I ve been to PA. Rural PA is highly GOP.Different than President as Independents often don't vote in mid term elections. For example, I rarely do. So again what happened in 2016?
In 2016, Pennsylvania barely went red by less than 1%. Prior to that, they have gone blue in every presidential election for the last 24 years.
The question is, was 2016 the start of a new trend or was it an anomaly?
In 2018, the House vote went decisively back to blue by winning the popular vote by over 10% and picking up a net gain of 3 seats.
So what happened in 2016? My guess is that Democrats didn't show up because Hillary Clinton is terrible. What happened in 2018 is Democrats had a whopping 70% increase in their House vote total from the midterm election before. Trump energized both sides to vote in 2018, and unfortunately for him, a lot more people hate him than like him as we saw an unprecedented increase in a midterm election. That's also true in Pennsylvania.
Based on that along with the polling, my guess is that 2016 was an anomaly as Pennsylvania is already starting to show more signs of going back to blue. With an 800,000 vote advantage for Democrats, I'm not losing confidence in that one.
But like I said, we'll know in a few months.