Makes Trumps win that much more impressive
Definitely. Big upset there. Just
barely pulled it off too.
The question is whether he can pull it off again. Personally, I don't think it's very likely. I think signs are pointing back to blue, as Pennsylvania has traditionally gone.
We'll know soon enough.
Debates will matter
Just my opinion here, but I don't think they're going to matter as much as they have in the past.
This has been one of the most interesting political cycles we've ever had, and I think most people pretty much have their minds made up one way or the other. At this point, people are either going to vote for Trump or against him.
If you look at the House popular vote in the midterm elections, 2018 had the two highest percentage increases - both for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Democrats had a 70% increase from the midterm before and Republicans had a 27% increase. Both the highest percentage increases ever recorded, both in the same election. What that tells me is that Trump is driving people to the polls. People have opinions on politics, on Trump, and on the direction of this country like we have never seen before. I don't think there are many apolitical people out there anymore compared to previous elections. I think most people already have an opinion one way or the other, and I don't think a debate is likely to change many people's minds like it did before.
With that said, there are still PLENTY of stupid things that either side is capable of doing between now and then, including a potential debate disaster. But outside of a complete disaster at the debates, I don't think they're going to move the needle much. Just my opinion.