Influential Covid-19 Models Were Horrifically Inaccurate & The Economic Decision To Shutdown The Economy Based On Them Was Wrong

[JackOfNoTrades]

If there was intelligence that China was covering up the virus, Trump didn’t share it with Congress.

Trump is PRESIDENT. he is not the head of US intelligence (17 separate agencies) and is not the Chairman of the House Intel Committee who is supposed to oversee US Intelligence. That would be the proven liar / traitor Adam Schiff, who was too busy at the time manufacturing and presenting fake evidence, committing Obstruction, and proving with his hilarious Impeachment hearings that he and the Democrats had zero crime, zero evidence, and zero witnesses.

FAIL, snowflake.

Seriously, even in your Trump Supporting Stupor, you can't be this dumb. Of course he's the defacto head of the intelligence agencies. Why do you think those intelligence agencies hold classified briefings for him, his cabinet members and the Joint Chiefs? So they can all pay him homage? It's been well known that Trump has a short attention span. They've had to shorten or dumb down the messages like a Quarter Pounder with Cheese cut into bite size chunks so he could consume them. It's also already known that Trump has no idea how government is supposed to function. Well, sorry Trump supporters, he's got a combo of a short attention span and ignorance..and here is where it starts working against your argument that he's some kind of stable genius. He isn't. That makes him flat out dangerous. He flat out denied, diverted, and played down the seriousness of the virus when he could have been initiating action (you know, cause he's President). But you keep pivoting to impeachment..which Trump brought on himself.

 

[BlueGin]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

There is a bigger issue here, Capt. People no longer trust the media. Leftists believe Fake News CNN and MSDNC and those on the right believe Fox News and the Blaze. You go back and forth with those channels and you would think you're living in two different realities. It is fine when it is just political banter but now it matters and we don't know who to trust or believe.

They don’t actually believe it...they just like using it to control the narrative.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

There is a bigger issue here, Capt. People no longer trust the media. Leftists believe Fake News CNN and MSDNC and those on the right believe Fox News and the Blaze. You go back and forth with those channels and you would think you're living in two different realities. It is fine when it is just political banter but now it matters and we don't know who to trust or believe.

They don’t actually believe it...they just like using it to control the narrative.

No no...they believe it. If they can believe that men may identify as women, they will believe anything and if you argue against them you're called a racist, sexist, homophobe, Islamaphobe.

 

[bripat9643]

If there was intelligence that China was covering up the virus, Trump didn’t share it with Congress.

Trump is PRESIDENT. he is not the head of US intelligence (17 separate agencies) and is not the Chairman of the House Intel Committee who is supposed to oversee US Intelligence. That would be the proven liar / traitor Adam Schiff, who was too busy at the time manufacturing and presenting fake evidence, committing Obstruction, and proving with his hilarious Impeachment hearings that he and the Democrats had zero crime, zero evidence, and zero witnesses.

FAIL, snowflake.

Seriously, even in your Trump Supporting Stupor, you can't be this dumb. Of course he's the defacto head of the intelligence agencies. Why do you think those intelligence agencies hold classified briefings for him, his cabinet members and the Joint Chiefs? So they can all pay him homage? It's been well known that Trump has a short attention span. They've had to shorten or dumb down the messages like a Quarter Pounder with Cheese cut into bite size chunks so he could consume them. It's also already known that Trump has no idea how government is supposed to function. Well, sorry Trump supporters, he's got a combo of a short attention span and ignorance..and here is where it starts working against your argument that he's some kind of stable genius. He isn't. That makes him flat out dangerous. He flat out denied, diverted, and played down the seriousness of the virus when he could have been initiating action (you know, cause he's President). But you keep pivoting to impeachment..which Trump brought on himself.

A summary of your post:

Bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit, personal attack, bullshit.

 

[colfax_m]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

 

[easyt65]

Are you ready to admit that Trump is the head of US intelligence and not Schiff?

Link?

What the hell does Schiff do if he ignores US intel as House Intel Committee Chairman?

Oh yeah....engage in Obstruction, Perjury, manufacturing false evidence, push political coups based on zero crime, zero evidence, zero witnesses....

 

[AntonToo]

And not a swignin' dick on this forum would've been able to make decisions which were any more informed than those made by the administration.

How the hell would you know that?

Certainly Trump's denials and misnformation spread of the covid-19 risk in February rose well beyond what a lot of people, left and right were guaging it to be.

Beyond Trump's unique diarhia of the mouth administration's neglect on making testing available and stockpiling of medical supplies as China's cities went into shutdown was a blunder so gross that its tough to imagine others fucking up like that. There was no downside to make that a priority even if the inevitability of the spread beyond china wasn't certain.

Well, for starters, I'd imagine we have a President who can spell "diarrhea".

You'd imagine? Thats nice, but it's well known that Trump routinely misspells. Thats as a POTUS, not an anonymous poster on a forum.

 

[colfax_m]

Are you ready to admit that Trump is the head of US intelligence and not Schiff?

Link?

What the hell does Schiff do if he ignores US intel as House Intel Committee Chairman?

Oh yeah....engage in Obstruction, Perjury, manufacturing false evidence, push political coups based on zero crime, zero evidence, zero witnesses....

Are you this fucking stupid you need a link to tell you that the president is head of US intelligence?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Are you ready to admit that Trump is the head of US intelligence and not Schiff?

Link?

What the hell does Schiff do if he ignores US intel as House Intel Committee Chairman?

Oh yeah....engage in Obstruction, Perjury, manufacturing false evidence, push political coups based on zero crime, zero evidence, zero witnesses....

Are you this fucking stupid you need a link to tell you that the president is head of US intelligence?

There you go with your tolerance and nice debating skills. LOL

Triggered much? Pathetic.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

And not a swignin' dick on this forum would've been able to make decisions which were any more informed than those made by the administration.

How the hell would you know that?

Certainly Trump's denials and misnformation spread of the covid-19 risk in February rose well beyond what a lot of people, left and right were guaging it to be.

Beyond Trump's unique diarhia of the mouth administration's neglect on making testing available and stockpiling of medical supplies as China's cities went into shutdown was a blunder so gross that its tough to imagine others fucking up like that. There was no downside to make that a priority even if the inevitability of the spread beyond china wasn't certain.

Well, for starters, I'd imagine we have a President who can spell "diarrhea".

You'd imagine? Thats nice, but it's well known that Trump routinely misspells. Thats as a POTUS, not an anonymous poster on a forum.

Twitter police. LOL

Antosha has gone off the deep end. Snowflake.

 

[easyt65]

Are you this fucking stupid you need a link to tell you that the president is head of US intelligence?

No...but you proved YOU DO.

Bwuhahahahahahaha..........

(And duly noted again - still can't / unwilling to provide any links. NO CREDIBILIYTY.)

 

[Brain357]

So now you blame democrats for trump guidelines? Wow that is stupid. Isn’t pence leading the charge?

Your reading comprehension level sucks, snowflake...or rather your transparent piss-poor attempts to spin do.

Well trump has been on tv everyday. Can’t blame the dems on this one.

 

[colfax_m]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

 

[colfax_m]

Are you this fucking stupid you need a link to tell you that the president is head of US intelligence?

No...but you proved YOU DO.

Bwuhahahahahahaha..........

(And duly noted again - still can't / unwilling to provide any links. NO CREDIBILIYTY.)

You’re an idiot. Who is the DNI?

Does the DNI report to Trump or to Schiff?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

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The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

 

[bripat9643]

And not a swignin' dick on this forum would've been able to make decisions which were any more informed than those made by the administration.

How the hell would you know that?

Certainly Trump's denials and misnformation spread of the covid-19 risk in February rose well beyond what a lot of people, left and right were guaging it to be.

Beyond Trump's unique diarhia of the mouth administration's neglect on making testing available and stockpiling of medical supplies as China's cities went into shutdown was a blunder so gross that its tough to imagine others fucking up like that. There was no downside to make that a priority even if the inevitability of the spread beyond china wasn't certain.

Well, for starters, I'd imagine we have a President who can spell "diarrhea".

You'd imagine? Thats nice, but it's well known that Trump routinely misspells. Thats as a POTUS, not an anonymous poster on a forum.

Can you show us any document that has been verified to be authored by Obama personally?

 

[easyt65]

You’re an idiot. Who is the DNI? Does the DNI report to Trump or to Schiff?

No Link?

Why hasn't the House Intel Chairman held the 1st hearing about this yet? Why are he and Nadler more interested in starting up new bogus, crimeless investigations of the President?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Are you this fucking stupid you need a link to tell you that the president is head of US intelligence?

No...but you proved YOU DO.

Bwuhahahahahahaha..........

(And duly noted again - still can't / unwilling to provide any links. NO CREDIBILIYTY.)

You’re an idiot. Who is the DNI?

Does the DNI report to Trump or to Schiff?

The President of the United States. It is an appointed position by the President.