Influential Covid-19 Models Were Horrifically Inaccurate & The Economic Decision To Shutdown The Economy Based On Them Was Wrong

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

So you call someone old as a compliment because my wisdom goes well beyond my years. I see. My argument is always right. You just babble stupidly over and over.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

So you call someone old as a compliment because my wisdom goes well beyond my years. I see. My argument is always right. You just babble stupidly over and over.

You are the judge, jury and executioner. I asked "are you elderly" as you repeated the same shit over and over again like a primitive parrot. Do I have the right to choose whom I support in politics? Yes or No? Do my parents? Yes or No?

Answer is yes. As do you. Doesn't mean I have to defend my actions. You do you and I will do me.

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

So you call someone old as a compliment because my wisdom goes well beyond my years. I see. My argument is always right. You just babble stupidly over and over.

You are the judge, jury and executioner. I asked "are you elderly" as you repeated the same shit over and over again like a primitive parrot. Do I have the right to choose whom I support in politics? Yes or No? Do my parents? Yes or No?

Answer is yes. As do you. Doesn't mean I have to defend my actions. You do you and I will do me.

Yes but you admit trump has been awful for deficits but keep trying to defend him which forces people to repeat the facts to you.

 

[BlindBoo]

Let me stop you right there before you go on. Yes he is. Don’t be an idiot.

So you believe it is the President's responsibility to do D-Adam Schiff's - the House Intelligence Committee Chairman - job?

Bwuhahahaha

When was information about a new virus threat included in the PDB? But there plenty of time for those questions and answers on the other side of this.

Time for Americans to



and forget the discordians.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

So you call someone old as a compliment because my wisdom goes well beyond my years. I see. My argument is always right. You just babble stupidly over and over.

You are the judge, jury and executioner. I asked "are you elderly" as you repeated the same shit over and over again like a primitive parrot. Do I have the right to choose whom I support in politics? Yes or No? Do my parents? Yes or No?

Answer is yes. As do you. Doesn't mean I have to defend my actions. You do you and I will do me.

Yes but you admit trump has been awful for deficits but keep trying to defend him which forces people to repeat the facts to you.

Yes, I do but that is just one part of his presidency. He has also been awful when it comes to healthcare. I do not dispute that. Doesn't mean I won't vote for him again.

 

[berg80]

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please.

Don't be silly. Of course they can't. BTW, just how horrified was your poor mom when she saw you for the first time? Or is she an orc too?

 

[Brain357]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

Ah.....so you got it!

Leftists (not liberals) got me to the point to where I wanted them to feel how I felt. So you agree that Trump is the effect not the cause. He didn't exacerbate it per se, he opened the flood gates for opposing views (you and I don't agree on anything) to flourish. Where as before the likes of you said, hey we are in charge now the opposition may argue the same.

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Aw, the wittle wiberals huwt your widdle feewings?

We are now paying the price to satisfy your victim mentality.

Ah...so you went all rogue my turn.

You and your PC Culture BS doesn't fly with me and I will express that. Not just white leftists. But the whole bullshit BDS movement, BLM, etc. Don't tell me that women may identify as men. Don't tell me what is and is not PC. You SJWs are sissies. Instead of being a "victim" I unleashed my right to vote and voted for someone who tells it like it is. You don't like it so you whine and complain as your TDS grows.

NOTE: You took this conversation to a dark place. Now live it with it. Antifa got in my face last June. It worked out very poorly for them. I don't run from fights, I embrace them. You pathetic snowflake.

So you’re complaint with liberals is that they said you shouldn’t attack blacks people, Palestinians, transgendered individuals.

And you’re whining about being attacked?

That’s some serious irony, isn’t it?

My complaint with Leftists is that they label anyone who disagrees with them as racist, sexist, homophobe, transphone, Islamaphobe. Never said I was attacked. I said my rights to speak openly were taken away. So I did something about it. Now you're frustrated. Good. No such thing as a Palestinian.

I want open debates and if I state a disparate opinion from you for you not to play the race card or whatever. If I believe affirmative action is stupid it does not make me racist. That is just one example.

Here is a map of Palestine for you.

View attachment 326634

Says the guy who admittedly hates old people, but supports trump. Funny stuff.

Hates old people? My parents are "old"...not as old as you, Methuselah but still old.

Yes you talk trash about old people all the time. If your parents are younger than me you are probably a child, which would explain a lot. Easy has grandkids, tell him how you hate old people.

Show one post where I say I "hate old people". I am 39.

I have broken another one. This is great!

There are many where you talk about how senile they are. Which is extra funny from a trump supporter. You are like the message board clown, it’s great.

Nope. Find one...

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters. My dad has a dual PhD. Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Call him an idiot all you like. He has given hundreds of thousands to Jewish causes and sponsored multiple families to come to the US. He says the Democrat party betrayed him. I just laugh as I never belonged or will belong to a party.

So now you will dismiss his points of view as well? Typical intolerant Leftist.

So when you call someone old it means what? A positive thing no doubt.

Your parents love failure eh? Trump has failed and failed so bad the country is shut down.

Not someone, YOU! Because you regurgitate the same argument over and over again like you have dementia. Do you?

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please. This isn't Nazi Germany. You think he failed and they disagree. Take it up with them. I would wager they are a lot more successful than you and have paid significantly more in taxes.

So you call someone old as a compliment because my wisdom goes well beyond my years. I see. My argument is always right. You just babble stupidly over and over.

You are the judge, jury and executioner. I asked "are you elderly" as you repeated the same shit over and over again like a primitive parrot. Do I have the right to choose whom I support in politics? Yes or No? Do my parents? Yes or No?

Answer is yes. As do you. Doesn't mean I have to defend my actions. You do you and I will do me.

Yes but you admit trump has been awful for deficits but keep trying to defend him which forces people to repeat the facts to you.

Yes, I do but that is just one part of his presidency. He has also been awful when it comes to healthcare. I do not dispute that. Doesn't mean I won't vote for him again.

It’s hard to find where he has been good. Tariffs caused a manufacturing decline. He made fun of presidents not hitting 3% growth, but now that’s him. His policies have mostly been a failure. Glad he has kept us out of new military conflicts, but sad he’s spending like we are in one. What has he done that was successful and helped our country?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

My parents are taxpayers and may do as they please.

Don't be silly. Of course they can't. BTW, just how horrified was your poor mom when she saw you for the first time? Or is she an orc too?

OK...BWK...when does that persona come out? After 7PM ET?

 

[RealDave]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

Yet another stupid fucking Trumpette who has no clue how mathematical modeling works.

Go out & lick some handrails.

 

[berg80]

My parents, lifetime Democrats until 2016. Now full time Trump supporters.

Dementia?

 

[BlindBoo]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

Inaccurate? It went from 2.2 MILLION dead to 60,000.

Inaccurate is an understatement.

2.2 million was the est. for the entire event if we did nothing and went with the herd immunity plan.

The 100 to 200 K is the est. for the entire event if we started social distancing and other measures when we did.

The 80 to 60 K is the est. through Aug. if we keep up social distancing measures.

 

[MisterBeale]

You know, the whole "armchair quarterback" thing gets old real quick. The reality is that there was no way to know what this thing was going to do.

Sorry, but the article and the true expert Epidemiologists speaking out in this article (AND MANY OTHERS) proves you are wrong. As the article teaches, there are 2 tried-and-true models who have been used for a long time that have been proven to be far more reliable than the IHME, which completely relied from the start on the CHICOMS to be honest, open, forthcoming, and sharing all of their information.

We'll just disagree.

The article we're looking at was written five days ago.

Where were these people three months ago?

Being suppressed by the corporate MSM.

I had posted them.

Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University | Episode 1•Mar 26, 2020

Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr. John Ioannidis Update: 4.17.20 | Episode 4•Apr 20, 2020

12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

Here is our list of twelve medical experts whose opinions on the Coronavirus outbreak contradict the official narratives of the MSM, and the memes so prevalent on social media.

off-guardian.org

10 MORE Experts Criticising the Coronavirus Panic

Following on from our previous list, here are ten more expert voices, drowned out or disregarded by the mainstream narrative, offering their take on the coronavirus outbreak. * * * Dr. Sunetra Gupt…

off-guardian.org

8 MORE Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

Our third batch of Medical experts dissenting from the media/political “consensus”.

off-guardian.org

Open Letter from Prof Sucharit Bhakdi to Chancellor Merkel

Translated from the German by Swiss Propaganda Research An Open Letter from Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, to the German…

off-guardian.org

Facts about Covid

Fully referenced facts about Covid-19.

swprs.org