The Dems Will Lose Less Seats than You Think

[Sarah G]

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

Agreed.

Putting healthcare in front of jobs has hurt the Democrats because people are more concerned about jobs than healthcare. From a tactical political standpoint, healthcare has been a disaster for the Democrats. But as the economy starts generating jobs again, this will benefit the Democrats.

Timing is everything..

 

[Liability]

Tonight, after this shit passes (which now appears to be a near certainty), the liberal Democratics will be well pleased with themselves. The hangover hits on Election Day.
They are gonna get CREAMED.

That sounds kinda familiar.


Now when did I hear that before...?

Wishful thinking from the right...

A month from now, the electorate will realize that the passing of healthcare will not end the world as we know it, there will be no death panels, granny will still be alive.

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

{quoted post edited to insert the close bracket}

Your response sounds like wishful thinking. You HOPE that the American people are like stupid docile sheep. But nobody on the other side is going to permit them to be so actively mislead.

The thing will broken down. The increased taxes will be exposed. The timing of those taxes will be explored. The associated rapid increase in the costs of almost everything will be exposed. And this is all without the first part of the substance of the bill -- things like the absolute loss of choice and liberty.

If anybody in the national GOP has a brain working in his or her skull, this will be a very well orchestrated information campaign.

And it's interesting that you mention JOBS. That has been the MAIN concern of the American electorate. yet it has NOT been the main focus of this Administration. Why are JOBS of such interest? Because people have this habit of getting addicted to eating and paying for their homes and their schools and their clothing and their transportation, etc. Hard to do without jobs. But also hard to do when the economy is getting butt-fucked. And this HEALTHCARE shit is gonna make everything more expensive BEFORE it srtarts the process of eliminating choice.

This Health Care crap is a disaster and the folks taking credit for it tonight are going to WISH to hell that they had, instead, listened to the MAJORITY of Americans who have OPPOSED this garbage. All the retarded liberal (and other) sheep-like Democratics in Congress granted the filthy Obama administration its wish on this one. The cost to them, politically, will be a remarkable thing to behold.

They WILLINGLY loaded the guns for their own electoral executions!

 

[rightwinger]

That sounds kinda familiar.


Now when did I hear that before...?

Wishful thinking from the right...

A month from now, the electorate will realize that the passing of healthcare will not end the world as we know it, there will be no death panels, granny will still be alive.

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

{quoted post edited to insert the close bracket}

Your response sounds like wishful thinking. You HOPE that the American people are like stupid docile sheep. But nobody on the other side is going to permit them to be so actively mislead.

The thing will broken down. The increased taxes will be exposed. The timing of those taxes will be explored. The associated rapid increase in the costs of almost everything will be exposed. And this is all without the first part of the substance of the bill -- things like the absolute loss of choice and liberty.

If anybody in the national GOP has a brain working in his or her skull, this will be a very well orchestrated information campaign.

And it's interesting that you mention JOBS. That has been the MAIN concern of the American electorate. yet it has NOT been the main focus of this Administration. Why are JOBS of such interest? Because people have this habit of getting addicted to eating and paying for their homes and their schools and their clothing and their transportation, etc. Hard to do without jobs. But also hard to do when the economy is getting butt-fucked. And this HEALTHCARE shit is gonna make everything more expensive BEFORE it srtarts the process of eliminating choice.

This Health Care crap is a disaster and the folks taking credit for it tonight are going to WISH to hell that they had, instead, listened to the MAJORITY of Americans who have OPPOSED this garbage. All the retarded liberal (and other) sheep-like Democratics in Congress granted the filthy Obama administration its wish on this one. The cost to them, politically, will be a remarkable thing to behold.

They WILLINGLY loaded the guns for their own electoral executions!

Go for it..

If you feel so strongly, Have the Republican candidates run on a platform of REPEALING the Healthcare Bill

 

[Article 15]

In that case .. how can any poll or prediction be accurate? Including yours.

I never say that my prediction is accurate. I am merely making an assessment of the future on information I now know. But lots can change in six months.

I know that. I just found it curious that Liability said that there's no way the polls on now people feel about the bill can be accurate because nobody has read the bill in one breath and then in the next he goes and makes a prediction of his own based on .... ????

 

[Liability]

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do.

But let me guess, the majority of people who do "get it" are Conservatives?

Cracks me up. When any poll does not work in one's favor, just call the people ignorant.

Oh please, doggie:

You are full of it.

If you aren't worked up over this crap then thee is a very good chance that you haven't bothered to get informed of what it does. Or you're just a lib who prefers statism.

But for anybody else who doesn't really prefer a nanny state or socialism or statism, and who also has not yet OBJECTED to what this Health Care Legislation is supposed to actually do, then it is readily apparent that they have not yet grasped what that 2700+ pages of crap is setting up.

You and I are in a minority. Most of the folks who participate in a political discussion board, like USMB, are in a minority. We have taken some time to inform ourselves. Even so, some of us are still in the dark -- to varying degrees -- over what this mess does or is designed to do. (I mean, some people still think it sets up "death panels" and WE should know better. Imagine how out of it most people are who DON'T spend this much time contemplating such things?)

So get off your high horse. That's not what I was saying at all.

 

[Ravi]

The IRS isn't going to be knocking on people's doors. The easiest way to enforce the penalty is to provide proof of insurance when you file your yearly return. Big deal.

Also, as more and more people are covered there will be less and less concern about taking dead end jobs simply to have health insurance.

In my field, at least, business is picking up and people are starting to spend and hire.

So yes, IMO, the economy is picking up. And that is the only thing that will matter come election time.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

No doubt the Democrats are going to ...going to be disappointed.

Too early to make bets, but loses are sure to come. Cycles.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

What will matter is how the economy is going in November, and how jobs are holding up.

I think with the health care thing passing along with its huge tax hikes, we will be seeing more and more job losses between now and then. Lots more business closures.


I don't see how the Republicans can gain much, as the whole disaster two years ago occurred on their watch, and most folks see TARP as a republican give away to buds that cost folks that lost their jobs, their jobs.

The anger is not so much at the Democrats, but at the political class in general.

I know blame bush is getting old, but the fact remains the Democrats have been trying to get us off the rocks That Bush and Co steered us on to. That the policies have been backwards, misguided, stupid, even venial and dishonest, but that is not a plus for the Republicans this year.

 

[Liability]

I also found this poll over at 538.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill

Don't know if it is accurate or not, or much about Public Policy Polling, but it is consistent with the idea that moderates are not seething over this bill.

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do. Fuck; even most of the idiot Congress-critters VOTING on it can't honestly tell you what most of that multi-thousand page miasma says

In that case .. how can any poll or prediction be accurate? Including yours.

My prediction is not a poll. Polls and predictions are not synonymous. Polls on THIS topic, in my estimation, are unlikely to be very accurate. They measure a public sentiment, maybe, but not the basis for that sentiment.

By contrast, my prediction is premised on my belief (as I noted) that between now and the midterms the public WILL be getting informed. It would be incredibly myopic of the national GOP to fail to educate the public on WHY the prices of everything are going up. It is quite clear to me (because I do know some things about this legislation that many of US know, but which many of the American people have NOT bothered to get informed about) that the immediate tax increases (and the numerous and hefty associated costs) will hit us all hard. And it will do so at a time where the economy is already hurting. So it is clear to me that the GOP will derive valuable voter support by showing the American people how and why the liberal Democrat Health Care Bill has caused them such increased harm.

Beyond that, I'm afraid I don't understand your question.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro. The center is going to throw out incumbents. This will mean a large number of new faces after election. Now that may very well mean your numbers are close. What I wonder is, will independents choose a third party over either current party? Will these people elected caucus with the Republicans? I think so. This is where the numbers will move toward a Republican majority.

One, no third party is going to elect a single member of Congress. Nothing indicates that is a possibility. Two, the center will generally support the status quo, which now includes regulated health insurance. Three, the far right of the GOP is going to try to get the party to gallop off the cliff.

This is the time for moderate Republicans to take back the party from the conloons.

 

[Article 15]

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do. Fuck; even most of the idiot Congress-critters VOTING on it can't honestly tell you what most of that multi-thousand page miasma says

In that case .. how can any poll or prediction be accurate? Including yours.

My prediction is not a poll. Polls and predictions are not synonymous. Polls on THIS topic, in my estimation, are unlikely to be very accurate. They measure a public sentiment, maybe, but not the basis for that sentiment.

By contrast, my prediction is premised on my belief (as I noted) that between now and the midterms the public WILL be getting informed. It would be incredibly myopic of the national GOP to fail to educate the public on WHY the prices of everything are going up. It is quite clear to me (because I do know some things about this legislation that many of US know, but which many of the American people have NOT bothered to get informed about) that the immediate tax increases (and the numerous and hefty associated costs) will hit us all hard. And it will do so at a time where the economy is already hurting. So it is clear to me that the GOP will derive valuable voter support by showing the American people how and why the liberal Democrat Health Care Bill has caused them such increased harm.

Beyond that, I'm afraid I don't understand your question.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[Zander]

The

Still waiting Zander.....You have been playing Chicken Little since Obama got elected

Any day now....the economy will crash....any day now

For the side hoping for the economy to fail

Are you really that stupid? The economy has already crashed. We've lost over 7 million jobs since Obama took over and gov't spending is out of control. Sorry, but I am not hoping for the economy to fail - it already has.

PS- "the stock market" is NOT the economy.

The stock market sure as hell helps..

So does three consecutive quarters of rising GDP

So does 10 consecutive months of increase in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators

So does GM getting near to making a profit

So does significant decreases in the rate of job losses

So does an increase of $6 trillion in personal wealth for Americans

So does stable interest rates and inflation

if you lose 50% of your wealth - then make 50% back, you are still down by 25%.

You are free to call it as you see it (or believe). I own a business that deals with other businesses from a variety of industries nationwide. These business people don't have rose colored glasses on - they are pessimistic and cutting expenses, cutting people, and cutting spending. The only part of the economy that is expanding is the gov't. It is not sustainable growth we are seeing, just more bubble economics compliments of well intentioned bureaucrats. It, like all bubbles will burst.....

 

[Toome]

I have to agree with rightwinger on this one. The American voter suffers from short-term memory. People tend to vote on how their lives are affected at the time of the vote. Health care, like it or not, is only important when you need it...not before. Or to paraphrase rightwinger's comments, more people will vote for the candidate who promises to improve the job market IF the job market doesn't improve by November. The only ones who will care about health care will be those who are directly affected by it at the time, and even then, it's not such a black and white issue. Things like government bureaucracy, red-tape run-around, etc. can always be attributed to a particular policy that can always be changed/improved as opposed to overturned.

And, like it or not, whether or not health care works, the new political third rail will be health care. Just like no candidate runs on getting rid of social security, defense spending, or the PATRIOT Act, the next best thing is to promise improving these programs but NOT getting rid of them.

The Dems would have to royally screw something up in September-October 2010 for it to become a contentious issue during the mid-term elections, and the taxes from this health care bill will not have kicked in by then for it to matter to the average American.

Hey, I'm not supporting it; just saying that this is the harsh, ugly reality of American politics.

 

[Liability]

The IRS isn't going to be knocking on people's doors. The easiest way to enforce the penalty is to provide proof of insurance when you file your yearly return. Big deal.

Also, as more and more people are covered there will be less and less concern about taking dead end jobs simply to have health insurance.

In my field, at least, business is picking up and people are starting to spend and hire.

So yes, IMO, the economy is picking up. And that is the only thing that will matter come election time.

The IRS may not LITERALLY knock on the door. I was speaking figuratively. Sorry if that wasn't sufficiently clear.

But the IRS WILL be getting very much upped in manpower to do exactly this. That's a part of the legislation. They will be the main enforcement officials for that portion of this Health Care bill. That's a part of the legislation. And they ARE getting a couple of thousand ADDITIONAL agents to do exactly that. That's a part of the legislation. And the proposed penalties for having a "plan" that doesn't meet gubmint's daffynition of "qualified" will be significant. That's a part of the legislation.

This bill is fucking ruinous. And you can bet your life that those responsible for it will be getting their blame properly POINTED OUT by those running AGAINST them.

 

[Ravi]

The IRS isn't going to be knocking on people's doors. The easiest way to enforce the penalty is to provide proof of insurance when you file your yearly return. Big deal.

Also, as more and more people are covered there will be less and less concern about taking dead end jobs simply to have health insurance.

In my field, at least, business is picking up and people are starting to spend and hire.

So yes, IMO, the economy is picking up. And that is the only thing that will matter come election time.

The IRS may not LITERALLY knock on the door. I was speaking figuratively. Sorry if that wasn't sufficiently clear.

But the IRS WILL be getting very much upped in manpower to do exactly this. That's a part of the legislation. They will be the main enforcement officials for that portion of this Health Care bill. That's a part of the legislation. And they ARE getting a couple of thousand ADDITIONAL agents to do exactly that. That's a part of the legislation. And the proposed penalties for having a "plan" that doesn't meet gubmint's daffynition of "qualified" will be significant. That's a part of the legislation.

This bill is fucking ruinous. And you can bet your life that those responsible for it will be getting their blame properly POINTED OUT by those running AGAINST them.

I don't think it is...that's just more hysteria from the right. And it shouldn't be, just another line item on your tax return.

 

[WillowTree]

The IRS isn't going to be knocking on people's doors. The easiest way to enforce the penalty is to provide proof of insurance when you file your yearly return. Big deal.

Also, as more and more people are covered there will be less and less concern about taking dead end jobs simply to have health insurance.

In my field, at least, business is picking up and people are starting to spend and hire.

So yes, IMO, the economy is picking up. And that is the only thing that will matter come election time.

The IRS may not LITERALLY knock on the door. I was speaking figuratively. Sorry if that wasn't sufficiently clear.

But the IRS WILL be getting very much upped in manpower to do exactly this. That's a part of the legislation. They will be the main enforcement officials for that portion of this Health Care bill. That's a part of the legislation. And they ARE getting a couple of thousand ADDITIONAL agents to do exactly that. That's a part of the legislation. And the proposed penalties for having a "plan" that doesn't meet gubmint's daffynition of "qualified" will be significant. That's a part of the legislation.

This bill is fucking ruinous. And you can bet your life that those responsible for it will be getting their blame properly POINTED OUT by those running AGAINST them.

I don't think it is...that's just more hysteria from the right. And it shouldn't be, just another line item on your tax return.

can you link us to documentation that it is a lie?

 

[The Rabbi]

It isn't a lie. The IRS is the agency charged with making sure people have health insurance and fining them if they dont. It is in the bill.

 

[Old Rocks]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

Still waiting Zander.....You have been playing Chicken Little since Obama got elected

Any day now....the economy will crash....any day now

For the side hoping for the economy to fail

Are you really that stupid? The economy has already crashed. We've lost over 7 million jobs since Obama took over and gov't spending is out of control. Sorry, but I am not hoping for the economy to fail - it already has.

PS- "the stock market" is NOT the economy.

Silly dingleberry. The crash was Bush's. TARP was Bush, one of the few things he got even half right.

The work on recovery is Obama's. If we see a recovery, even a slow, sluggish one, he will get the credit, for we came so very close to the Second Great Republican Depression.

Gov't spending was out of control under Bush, spending on things that would never pay us back in any way, a totallity of negative returns. If Obama's programs put people to work at present, and create infrastructure that will be used for generatons, then his spending will be for the good.

 

[Old Rocks]

It isn't a lie. The IRS is the agency charged with making sure people have health insurance and fining them if they dont. It is in the bill.

Good. Then, since we all have to have insurance, we can just step into a real universal plan like the other democratic wealthy nations have.

No more medical bankruptcies, no more Health Insurance Death Panels stating pre-existing condition. Longer life spans, healthier lives, as the focus shifts to prevention.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

Agreed.

Putting healthcare in front of jobs has hurt the Democrats because people are more concerned about jobs than healthcare. From a tactical political standpoint, healthcare has been a disaster for the Democrats. But as the economy starts generating jobs again, this will benefit the Democrats.

The stimulus package was H. R. ONE wasn't it?