The Dems Will Lose Less Seats than You Think

[Toro]

No doubt the Democrats are going to lose seats in November. They have made healthcare their priority when they should have been focusing more so on the economy, healthcare is unpopular, and Obama hasn't been particularly effective. Plus, they're Democrats, which makes them pretty much incompetent in their DNA anyways. (Over the past 10 years, the Republicans seemed to have programmed their DNA for incompetence too.)

But I don't think the Democrats are going to lose either chamber. Personally, I'd like to see the GOP win one because both parties are too stupid to control everything. We saw that under Bush and we're seeing it again now. So I'm all for divided government and am hoping for Republican gains.

The Dems will lose 30-50 seats in the House and 4-6 seats in the Senate. That is probably better than most pundits think. Here's why.

First, the center is not angry over healthcare, unlike the Right. They may not support it but there is no seething anger, unlike the Right. Six months from now, once the healthcare bill is passed, it will be less of an issue for the center.

Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

Finally, and most importantly, the economy is getting better. Soon, you will see positive job growth. Between now and October, over a million jobs may be created in the economy. That may sound like a lot but it is in fact below the average coming out of a recession and even below long-term trends. The economy is still going to be sluggish and unemployment will still be high, but the headlines will be more positive and people will feel more optimistic. That will help the Democrats.

Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think those hoping for a Republican takeover of Congress are going to be disappointed.

 

[Modbert]

It all depends on the economy. Just like it will in 2012. If Job growth is occurring by the election, the Dems will not lose as much as expected.

And you're right Toro, the Republicans cannot sit on their hands and protect special interests when it comes to financial reform. You see Boehner doing that already and it will be ugly for the Republicans to do so.

 

[MarcATL]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

 

[saveliberty]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro. The center is going to throw out incumbents. This will mean a large number of new faces after election. Now that may very well mean your numbers are close. What I wonder is, will independents choose a third party over either current party? Will these people elected caucus with the Republicans? I think so. This is where the numbers will move toward a Republican majority.

 

[Modbert]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro. The center is going to throw out incumbents. This will mean a large number of new faces after election. Now that may very well mean your numbers are close. What I wonder is, will independents choose a third party over either current party? Will these people elected caucus with the Republicans? I think so. This is where the numbers will move toward a Republican majority.

And your right of no center in your thinking.

The center does not consist of just tea party Republicans who say they would vote Independent but will vote majority for Republicans anyway.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Yeah, great analysis. Dems have nothing to fear.

Go for Immigration "reform" next.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Kennedy Seat and the Governorships in NJ and VA were just hiccups in an otherwise long Obama Reich

 

[Toro]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro.

No, I'm right of center. I come across as left of center to those who are way out on the right, and there are a lot of those people here.

 

[saveliberty]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro.

No, I'm right of center. I come across as left of center to those who are way out on the right, and there are a lot of those people here.

Think what you will. I have taken several of those polls that are supposedly going to reveal where you are in the political spectrum. I'm always just slightly right of center. You and I are not in the same place.

P.S. DOgbert amd MarcATL just thanked you. That speaks volumes on your leanings.

 

[rdean]

America's mad at "incumbents". But they already know that the Republcians are destructive and incompetent. They give the illusion of being able to govern because they are a overwhelmingly white party who vote in lockstep. Because they lack diversity, they don't work for "middle class America's" best interests.
The Democrats are made up of educated white people and everyone else including most scientists. Because it's a broadly diverse coalition, it takes time and negotiation for them to truly work as the coalition they are. But because they are a coalition, they work for the best interests of the United States and not some narrow white special interest group.
I know the truth upsets those on the right. But they should just "get over it" and "deal with reality". They aren't the only "group of importance" in this country. When they say, "take back America", they assume they are the only "true" Americans who, because they are white and Christian, deserve "special" rights and considerations. They act like the country should "belong" to them rather than America being a place for "ALL" Americans to live with equal rights.

 

[Toro]

Your left of center in your thinking Toro.

No, I'm right of center. I come across as left of center to those who are way out on the right, and there are a lot of those people here.

Think what you will. I have taken several of those polls that are supposedly going to reveal where you are in the political spectrum. I'm always just slightly right of center. You and I are not in the same place.

P.S. DOgbert amd MarcATL just thanked you. That speaks volumes on your leanings.

I have been a member of the conservative parties of Canada and the UK. My political hero is Margaret Thatcher. My shelf is stuffed full of free market books. I was once an ardent supporter of the Republican party. But I first and foremost cannot stand stupidity, and I find most of the stupid stuff written here is from the Right. I also don't like dogma, and most dogmatic members here are conservatives. And I'm not a social conservative. If this forum was populated by sealybobos, then you'd think I was a conservative.

I usually wind up as a libertarian in those same online political leaning sites.

 

[Modbert]

Think what you will. I have taken several of those polls that are supposedly going to reveal where you are in the political spectrum. I'm always just slightly right of center. You and I are not in the same place.

P.S. DOgbert amd MarcATL just thanked you. That speaks volumes on your leanings.

Except you seem to have no idea where I stand on the issues. I usually agree with Toro because he makes thought out, intelligent, and backed up with evidence remarks. The same goes with others on this board who would be considered leaning to the right.

And if you're for civil war, you're not slightly right of center. Those polls are rubbish if that's the case.

 

[Zander]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

 

[Ravi]

No doubt the Democrats are going to lose seats in November. They have made healthcare their priority when they should have been focusing more so on the economy, healthcare is unpopular, and Obama hasn't been particularly effective. Plus, they're Democrats, which makes them pretty much incompetent in their DNA anyways. (Over the past 10 years, the Republicans seemed to have programmed their DNA for incompetence too.)

But I don't think the Democrats are going to lose either chamber. Personally, I'd like to see the GOP win one because both parties are too stupid to control everything. We saw that under Bush and we're seeing it again now. So I'm all for divided government and am hoping for Republican gains.

The Dems will lose 30-50 seats in the House and 4-6 seats in the Senate. That is probably better than most pundits think. Here's why.

First, the center is not angry over healthcare, unlike the Right. They may not support it but there is no seething anger, unlike the Right. Six months from now, once the healthcare bill is passed, it will be less of an issue for the center.

Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

Finally, and most importantly, the economy is getting better. Soon, you will see positive job growth. Between now and October, over a million jobs may be created in the economy. That may sound like a lot but it is in fact below the average coming out of a recession and even below long-term trends. The economy is still going to be sluggish and unemployment will still be high, but the headlines will be more positive and people will feel more optimistic. That will help the Democrats.

Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think those hoping for a Republican takeover of Congress are going to be disappointed.

That there is commie talk, boy!

I am like you in that I really don't like having one party in control. Though I have to say, having the Democrats in control is almost like a balanced government since they seem incapable of doing anything productive.

 

[rightwinger]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

Still waiting Zander.....You have been playing Chicken Little since Obama got elected

Any day now....the economy will crash....any day now

For the side hoping for the economy to fail

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

I think that's a fair analysis. I agree that the Democrats are unlikely to lose their majority in either chamber, but I don't agree that the economy is getting better obviously. There may be the perception that the economy is getting better for a short time, but things are going to get much worse.

 

[The Rabbi]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

All the economy has to do is continue on at its lethargic pace. 9-10% unemployment coupled with new high taxes will guarantee "it's the economy, stupid" and the Dums are out.
I predict a landslide historic shift. Scott Brown should have been enough to demonstrate that.

 

[Zander]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

Still waiting Zander.....You have been playing Chicken Little since Obama got elected

Any day now....the economy will crash....any day now

For the side hoping for the economy to fail

Are you really that stupid? The economy has already crashed. We've lost over 7 million jobs since Obama took over and gov't spending is out of control. Sorry, but I am not hoping for the economy to fail - it already has.

PS- "the stock market" is NOT the economy.

 

[Xenophon]

No doubt the Democrats are going to lose seats in November. They have made healthcare their priority when they should have been focusing more so on the economy, healthcare is unpopular, and Obama hasn't been particularly effective. Plus, they're Democrats, which makes them pretty much incompetent in their DNA anyways. (Over the past 10 years, the Republicans seemed to have programmed their DNA for incompetence too.)

But I don't think the Democrats are going to lose either chamber. Personally, I'd like to see the GOP win one because both parties are too stupid to control everything. We saw that under Bush and we're seeing it again now. So I'm all for divided government and am hoping for Republican gains.

The Dems will lose 30-50 seats in the House and 4-6 seats in the Senate. That is probably better than most pundits think. Here's why.

First, the center is not angry over healthcare, unlike the Right. They may not support it but there is no seething anger, unlike the Right. Six months from now, once the healthcare bill is passed, it will be less of an issue for the center.

Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

Finally, and most importantly, the economy is getting better. Soon, you will see positive job growth. Between now and October, over a million jobs may be created in the economy. That may sound like a lot but it is in fact below the average coming out of a recession and even below long-term trends. The economy is still going to be sluggish and unemployment will still be high, but the headlines will be more positive and people will feel more optimistic. That will help the Democrats.

Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think those hoping for a Republican takeover of Congress are going to be disappointed.

You are not reading the mood of the US correctly.

This is going to cost the Dems both houses, it will be WORSE then a lot of people think for the Dems.

And you are dead wrong, the center IS EXTREMLY angry over healthcare, the bill nobody wants.

 

[Toro]

Well, for anyone who agrees or disagrees, you can bet on the outcome. Current Intrade odds for the Republicans taking control of the House are 48% v 52% for the Dems retaining control. The odds of the GOP taking control of the Senate are currently about 15%.

Intrade Prediction Markets

If the center was truly seething with anger, I would expect those numbers for the GOP to be higher.