The Dems Will Lose Less Seats than You Think

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Toro, Mar 21, 2010.

  1. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    No doubt the Democrats are going to lose seats in November. They have made healthcare their priority when they should have been focusing more so on the economy, healthcare is unpopular, and Obama hasn't been particularly effective. Plus, they're Democrats, which makes them pretty much incompetent in their DNA anyways. (Over the past 10 years, the Republicans seemed to have programmed their DNA for incompetence too.)

    But I don't think the Democrats are going to lose either chamber. Personally, I'd like to see the GOP win one because both parties are too stupid to control everything. We saw that under Bush and we're seeing it again now. So I'm all for divided government and am hoping for Republican gains.

    The Dems will lose 30-50 seats in the House and 4-6 seats in the Senate. That is probably better than most pundits think. Here's why.

    First, the center is not angry over healthcare, unlike the Right. They may not support it but there is no seething anger, unlike the Right. Six months from now, once the healthcare bill is passed, it will be less of an issue for the center.

    Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

    Finally, and most importantly, the economy is getting better. Soon, you will see positive job growth. Between now and October, over a million jobs may be created in the economy. That may sound like a lot but it is in fact below the average coming out of a recession and even below long-term trends. The economy is still going to be sluggish and unemployment will still be high, but the headlines will be more positive and people will feel more optimistic. That will help the Democrats.

    Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think those hoping for a Republican takeover of Congress are going to be disappointed.
     
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  2. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    It all depends on the economy. Just like it will in 2012. If Job growth is occurring by the election, the Dems will not lose as much as expected.

    And you're right Toro, the Republicans cannot sit on their hands and protect special interests when it comes to financial reform. You see Boehner doing that already and it will be ugly for the Republicans to do so.
     
  3. MarcATL
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    MarcATL Gold Member

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    Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.
     
  4. saveliberty
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    saveliberty Diamond Member

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    Your left of center in your thinking Toro. The center is going to throw out incumbents. This will mean a large number of new faces after election. Now that may very well mean your numbers are close. What I wonder is, will independents choose a third party over either current party? Will these people elected caucus with the Republicans? I think so. This is where the numbers will move toward a Republican majority.
     
  5. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    And your right of no center in your thinking.

    The center does not consist of just tea party Republicans who say they would vote Independent but will vote majority for Republicans anyway.
     
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  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Yeah, great analysis. Dems have nothing to fear.

    Go for Immigration "reform" next.
     
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  7. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    The Kennedy Seat and the Governorships in NJ and VA were just hiccups in an otherwise long Obama Reich
     
  8. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    No, I'm right of center. I come across as left of center to those who are way out on the right, and there are a lot of those people here.
     
  9. saveliberty
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    saveliberty Diamond Member

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    Think what you will. I have taken several of those polls that are supposedly going to reveal where you are in the political spectrum. I'm always just slightly right of center. You and I are not in the same place.

    P.S. DOgbert amd MarcATL just thanked you. That speaks volumes on your leanings.
     
  10. rdean
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    rdean rddean

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    America's mad at "incumbents". But they already know that the Republcians are destructive and incompetent. They give the illusion of being able to govern because they are a overwhelmingly white party who vote in lockstep. Because they lack diversity, they don't work for "middle class America's" best interests.
    The Democrats are made up of educated white people and everyone else including most scientists. Because it's a broadly diverse coalition, it takes time and negotiation for them to truly work as the coalition they are. But because they are a coalition, they work for the best interests of the United States and not some narrow white special interest group.
    I know the truth upsets those on the right. But they should just "get over it" and "deal with reality". They aren't the only "group of importance" in this country. When they say, "take back America", they assume they are the only "true" Americans who, because they are white and Christian, deserve "special" rights and considerations. They act like the country should "belong" to them rather than America being a place for "ALL" Americans to live with equal rights.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2010

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