The Dems Will Lose Less Seats than You Think

[Papi]

I agree with much of what you wrote except for the part that the Economy is about to turn around...
Personally I believe that the unemployment figures are going to be hovering in the 6-8% and change range for at least the next 3 years... We are a very long way from being out of the woods on this issue and the more the Government dilly dallies with raining in the real Crooks (The Banks and Wall Street) the more people will continue to get hosed by Credit Card Rates, Bank Fees, and Russian Roulette with their Kids College funds and their retirement plans...

The Foreclosure Crisis has not been dealt with and that area Sub Prime Loans is how we got into this mess in the first place... Wall Street and the Banks have been bailed out with no strings attached and they are back to snorting cocaine with hundred bills as they dip their Cigars in the world's finest cognac.

I view the Health Care Legislation as a small victory for the Middle Class but just a small one because the Bill is only a start to what really needs to be done with is either single payer or a public option to break the monopoly on those greedy bastards in the insurance industries back. But the price of medication and medical supplies have not been addressed and Hospitals are still going to be handing out like lunch $75,000 Hospital Bills for a few days visit and someone is still going to have to pay that.

Most are blaming President Obama for choosing the wrong War Health Care of Jobs but if you look at it, I think he showed some guts to double back to achieve his single biggest legislative agenda Health Care Reform when the Republicans had done such a masterful job of Lying about it and Killing it...
Turns out they celebrated too soon. It took the Country 50-60 years since the last major reforms to the delivery of Health Care Reforms in this Country. It has taken President Obama just under 14 months to do so. Say what you want this is a Major Victory for him.

The Administration will now turn it's attention to Jobs and the Economy. it Obama foolishly takes up issues like Immigration Reform or Climate Change or Energy before doing everything within the power of the Presidency to address Jobs, then he is going to be in serious trouble.

Here is how I see the Priorities going forward and in this order of what should be the Agenda from the White House:
1) Jobs- The Economy- The Clock is ticking and the Economy must be turned around.
2) Financial Regulatory Reform- We can't let these greedy bastards get off the hook.
3) Education- Our kids are floundering and will get lapped if we don't improve the schools
4) Energy- we can't keep paying those guys in the white sheets with the sun tans Bazillions
5) Immigration Reform- We can't stop em we may as well tax them.

Still pulling for our Country.
Papi.

 

[Charles Stucker]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

Steps of the Economy
1 - Cycle Up
2 - Cycle Down
Repeat endlessly.

I hope the Democrats lose EVERY SINGLE SEAT and the Republicans take it as a mandate to rescind all the socialist bullshit which has infected the US since FDR.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

Passing Healthcare was a BIG loss for the GOP, as you're right, that means the agenda is freed up for going after the Financial Industry.

And if the GOP fights reform there, they'll lose.

Best bet for them is to shut up and just let the Democrats do what they want till 2010. Then show the consequences and roll it back if the American People give them back the Congress.

 

[The Rabbi]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

Steps of the Economy
1 - Cycle Up
2 - Cycle Down
Repeat endlessly.

I hope the Democrats lose EVERY SINGLE SEAT and the Republicans take it as a mandate to rescind all the socialist bullshit which has infected the US since FDR.

I hope I can bang supermodels.
But that probably won't happen either.

However I do think an unprecedented turnover in the House is very likely, and that will gum up Obama's agenda long enough to make it a forgotten chapter in American history in a short time

 

[Modbert]

Yes, because the GOP is going to run on the platform of repealing Health Care and putting nothing in it's place.

 

[The Rabbi]

Yes, because the GOP is going to run on the platform of repealing Health Care and putting nothing in it's place.

Except for retaining the popular parts and lowering taxes.
Yeah, that sounds like a loser to me.
Actually YOU sound like a loser to me.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

You know a lot of folks here are saying that the GOP will take back the House, the Senate, and beat Obama in 2012.

I don't think its impossible for the GOP to take the House (though passing Healthcare reduces that possiblity), it was hard to take the Senate (Almost statistically impossible), but defeating Obama in 2012 has me LOL'ing in my office.

Clinton lost the House in 1994, and in 1996....

Even if you manage to turn back the Legislature to GOP control, that won't guarantee a GOP win in 2012. Right now the GOP seems bound and determined to pick Palin as the nominee, and if that happens you'll have a replay of Dole vs. Clinton at the very least. You might even get to see Reagan v. Mondale play out, with Obama as Reagan and Palin as Mondale.

If the GOP is serious about winning in 2012, they need to purge the wingnuts. Which they won't do.

 

[Modbert]

Except for retaining the popular parts and lowering taxes.
Yeah, that sounds like a loser to me.
Actually YOU sound like a loser to me.

If you think the GOP is going to do that, you're more naive than I thought. You should of loved the Stimulus then by the way, 40%+ tax cuts.

Though the only loser between us two is you Rabbi. Wish death on any Muslims of late with your pals?

 

[Modbert]

You know a lot of folks here are saying that the GOP will take back the House, the Senate, and beat Obama in 2012.

I don't think its impossible for the GOP to take the House (though passing Healthcare reduces that possiblity), it was hard to take the Senate (Almost statistically impossible), but defeating Obama in 2012 has me LOL'ing in my office.

Clinton lost the House in 1994, and in 1996....

Even if you manage to turn back the Legislature to GOP control, that won't guarantee a GOP win in 2012. Right now the GOP seems bound and determined to pick Palin as the nominee, and if that happens you'll have a replay of Dole vs. Clinton at the very least. You might even get to see Reagan v. Mondale play out, with Obama as Reagan and Palin as Mondale.

If the GOP is serious about winning in 2012, they need to purge the wingnuts. Which they won't do.

Their only real choice at the moment is Romney, who is racing himself to suck up to the wingnut base as much as possible. I too am LOL'ing at the GOP thinking they will defeat Obama in 2012 at the present moment.

 

[The Rabbi]

You know a lot of folks here are saying that the GOP will take back the House, the Senate, and beat Obama in 2012.

I don't think its impossible for the GOP to take the House (though passing Healthcare reduces that possiblity), it was hard to take the Senate (Almost statistically impossible), but defeating Obama in 2012 has me LOL'ing in my office.

Clinton lost the House in 1994, and in 1996....

Even if you manage to turn back the Legislature to GOP control, that won't guarantee a GOP win in 2012. Right now the GOP seems bound and determined to pick Palin as the nominee, and if that happens you'll have a replay of Dole vs. Clinton at the very least. You might even get to see Reagan v. Mondale play out, with Obama as Reagan and Palin as Mondale.

If the GOP is serious about winning in 2012, they need to purge the wingnuts. Which they won't do.

How old are you?
Clinton presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
Reagan presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
George HW Bush presided over a mild recession and got kicked out of office after winning one of the shortest, most blood-less, quickest and most popular wars in U.S history.

Obama's own White House is rpedicting unemployment to stay between 9 and 10%. With the new taxes from healthcare companies won't be hiring as much, preferring to work people on overtime. Unemployed people tend to be unhappy people. And they will be unhappy with Obama.
He's one n done.

 

[EriktheRed]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

Steps of the Economy
1 - Cycle Up
2 - Cycle Down
Repeat endlessly.

I hope the Democrats lose EVERY SINGLE SEAT and the Republicans take it as a mandate to rescind all the socialist bullshit which has infected the US since FDR.

I hope I can bang supermodels.
But that probably won't happen either.

However I do think an unprecedented turnover in the House is very likely, and that will gum up Obama's agenda long enough to make it a forgotten chapter in American history in a short time

And we should take your predictions seriously because...?

 

[NYcarbineer]

You know a lot of folks here are saying that the GOP will take back the House, the Senate, and beat Obama in 2012.

I don't think its impossible for the GOP to take the House (though passing Healthcare reduces that possiblity), it was hard to take the Senate (Almost statistically impossible), but defeating Obama in 2012 has me LOL'ing in my office.

Clinton lost the House in 1994, and in 1996....

Even if you manage to turn back the Legislature to GOP control, that won't guarantee a GOP win in 2012. Right now the GOP seems bound and determined to pick Palin as the nominee, and if that happens you'll have a replay of Dole vs. Clinton at the very least. You might even get to see Reagan v. Mondale play out, with Obama as Reagan and Palin as Mondale.

If the GOP is serious about winning in 2012, they need to purge the wingnuts. Which they won't do.

How old are you?
Clinton presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
Reagan presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
George HW Bush presided over a mild recession and got kicked out of office after winning one of the shortest, most blood-less, quickest and most popular wars in U.S history.

Obama's own White House is rpedicting unemployment to stay between 9 and 10%. With the new taxes from healthcare companies won't be hiring as much, preferring to work people on overtime. Unemployed people tend to be unhappy people. And they will be unhappy with Obama.
He's one n done.

How can you predict the economy 2 years out? Reagan was in worse shape in the spring of 82 than Obama is now.

 

[Modbert]

How can you predict the economy 2 years out? Reagan was in worse shape in the spring of 82 than Obama is now.

Funny, I recall Reagan raising taxes what? 6 times after 81 at least?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

You know a lot of folks here are saying that the GOP will take back the House, the Senate, and beat Obama in 2012.

I don't think its impossible for the GOP to take the House (though passing Healthcare reduces that possiblity), it was hard to take the Senate (Almost statistically impossible), but defeating Obama in 2012 has me LOL'ing in my office.

Clinton lost the House in 1994, and in 1996....

Even if you manage to turn back the Legislature to GOP control, that won't guarantee a GOP win in 2012. Right now the GOP seems bound and determined to pick Palin as the nominee, and if that happens you'll have a replay of Dole vs. Clinton at the very least. You might even get to see Reagan v. Mondale play out, with Obama as Reagan and Palin as Mondale.

If the GOP is serious about winning in 2012, they need to purge the wingnuts. Which they won't do.

How old are you?
Clinton presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
Reagan presided over an enormous expansion in the economy. Of course he got re-elected.
George HW Bush presided over a mild recession and got kicked out of office after winning one of the shortest, most blood-less, quickest and most popular wars in U.S history.

Obama's own White House is rpedicting unemployment to stay between 9 and 10%. With the new taxes from healthcare companies won't be hiring as much, preferring to work people on overtime. Unemployed people tend to be unhappy people. And they will be unhappy with Obama.
He's one n done.

How can you predict the economy 2 years out? Reagan was in worse shape in the spring of 82 than Obama is now.

That's the real question.

I seriously doubt the economy is in the crapper in two years, and if it is better Obama will walk to a win in 2012 against anyone the GOP has.

If its worse, he'll still mop the floor with Palin. The GOP's only hope in 2012 right now is Romney as a nominee and a crappy economy.

Losing on this Healthcare debate hurt them, badly. They wanted this to be the Democrat's Waterloo and fought tooth and nail to stop it. By 2010, no one is going to care now.

 

[The Rabbi]

Actually the GOP won. They prevented much much worse legislation, despite having a very minority status in both houses of Congress. And they demonstrated an almost unprecedented party unity, in addition to getting their message out effectively enough that a majority of people opposed the plan, despite media fawning.
And you are assuming Palin is the nominee. I doubt it. It is way to early to call the nominee at this point.

 

[EriktheRed]

Actually the GOP won. They prevented much much worse legislation, despite having a very minority status in both houses of Congress. And they demonstrated an almost unprecedented party unity, in addition to getting their message out effectively enough that a majority of people opposed the plan, despite media fawning.
And you are assuming Palin is the nominee. I doubt it. It is way to early to call the nominee at this point.

Atta boy! Spin this into a positive.

In the meantime, the rest of us are gonna keep laughing.

 

[keee keee]

Steps of the Economy
1 - Cycle Up
2 - Cycle Down
Repeat endlessly.

I hope the Democrats lose EVERY SINGLE SEAT and the Republicans take it as a mandate to rescind all the socialist bullshit which has infected the US since FDR.

I hope I can bang supermodels.
But that probably won't happen either.

However I do think an unprecedented turnover in the House is very likely, and that will gum up Obama's agenda long enough to make it a forgotten chapter in American history in a short time

And we should take your predictions seriously because...?

Because Obama has awaken a sleeping giant. The American people will not forget this vote. A majority of Americans are opposed to this bill. And will turn out in record numbers for payback for not being listened to!!!! Come on now pass amnesty. Do you remember that the people are against this also? Get more people to come out and vote you out!!!

 

[rightwinger]

Actually the GOP won. They prevented much much worse legislation, despite having a very minority status in both houses of Congress. And they demonstrated an almost unprecedented party unity, in addition to getting their message out effectively enough that a majority of people opposed the plan, despite media fawning.
And you are assuming Palin is the nominee. I doubt it. It is way to early to call the nominee at this point.

Doesn't matter which stiff the Republicans put up in 2012. They will still lose

The economy will be significantly improved which will make Republican obstruction indefendable

 

[Toro]

It's one party's version of what healthcare reform is....not what the majority of Americans asked for and you know it. Quit playing semantics with words....you can't be serious when you say the Corn Husker kickback is what America wants....please...we are not stupid...

and for the record...this Bill will have ZERO effect on me or my finances because I'm a military retiree and exempt.

Call it whatever you wish. That's not the point.

If you break down support, 90% of conservatives are against it, 90% of liberals are for it, and moderates are evenly split. Since there are more conservatives than liberals, then most of America is against this bill. But conservatives weren't going to vote for the Democrats in November anyways. What matters to Obama are moderates. And the fact that half of moderates are supportive of this bill means there is not the seething anger in the middle as there are with conservatives. For moderates, this issue will matter less in the mid-term elections.

I deem your post to be a fair-minded and dispassionate analysis.

But I see what I consider to be a flaw in your thinking.

To put a point on it: your analysis seems to assume that the conditions you describe are stagnant. In other words, the 50-50 split of the so-called "moderates" will remain at 50-50 through the mid-term elections.

If that turns out to be the case, you have a fair point. The election results under such circumstances should not be as bad for the liberal Democratics as many of the pundits are suggesting they will be.

But if you are incorrect, then the results may be expected to be quite horrendous for the liberal Democratics.

What might ALTER the 50-50 split of the so-called "moderates?" Reality. When WHAT this monstrosity of a bill is -- and what it does -- STARTS to become better understood generally, such as when the taxes strike and the associated costs hit, THEN the "moderates" might very well give this legislation another jaundiced look. That does NOT bode well for the liberal Democratics who supported this hideously stupid "plan" of the Obama Administration.

We shall see fairly soon.

I agree. Things can change in a hurry. I may wind up being dead wrong.

 

[BolshevikHunter]

All you Leftist bottomfeeders get to look forward to is a Republican Majority in 2010 and another Republican in office in 2012 for atleast 8 years. LOL!!!! Not too mention The Supreme Court ruling against this mentally deranged Bill. In the end, You're losers as usual. ~BH