The Dems Will Lose Less Seats than You Think

[Sarah G]

Well, for anyone who agrees or disagrees, you can bet on the outcome. Current Intrade odds for the Republicans taking control of the House are 48% v 52% for the Dems retaining control. The odds of the GOP taking control of the Senate are currently about 15%.

Intrade Prediction Markets

If the center was truly seething with anger, I would expect those numbers for the GOP to be higher.

Regardless of what Indes are thinking of healthcare reform, they aren't running to Rs with open arms.

I think they want to hire moderates now.

 

[Article 15]

No doubt the Democrats are going to lose seats in November. They have made healthcare their priority when they should have been focusing more so on the economy, healthcare is unpopular, and Obama hasn't been particularly effective. Plus, they're Democrats, which makes them pretty much incompetent in their DNA anyways. (Over the past 10 years, the Republicans seemed to have programmed their DNA for incompetence too.)

But I don't think the Democrats are going to lose either chamber. Personally, I'd like to see the GOP win one because both parties are too stupid to control everything. We saw that under Bush and we're seeing it again now. So I'm all for divided government and am hoping for Republican gains.

The Dems will lose 30-50 seats in the House and 4-6 seats in the Senate. That is probably better than most pundits think. Here's why.

First, the center is not angry over healthcare, unlike the Right. They may not support it but there is no seething anger, unlike the Right. Six months from now, once the healthcare bill is passed, it will be less of an issue for the center.

Second, the Democrats next target will be the financial industry. The GOP's healthcare posture has been "Just say no." That has worked for healthcare but will not work for financial reform. Thus far, the GOP has been following the same script in financial reform as they have for healthcare reform. It will not work. Financial reform will not be as big as healthcare reform, but the GOP is digging in to protect entrenched interests who profited enormously from the government sponsored bailouts and are spending tens of millions of dollars to fight it. Whether or not the Democrats implement meaningful reform is another story, but they will use GOP defense of Wall Street as a stick to beat the Republicans with.

Finally, and most importantly, the economy is getting better. Soon, you will see positive job growth. Between now and October, over a million jobs may be created in the economy. That may sound like a lot but it is in fact below the average coming out of a recession and even below long-term trends. The economy is still going to be sluggish and unemployment will still be high, but the headlines will be more positive and people will feel more optimistic. That will help the Democrats.

Of course, never underestimate the Democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think those hoping for a Republican takeover of Congress are going to be disappointed.

You are not reading the mood of the US correctly.

This is going to cost the Dems both houses, it will be WORSE then a lot of people think for the Dems.

And you are dead wrong, the center IS EXTREMLY angry over healthcare, the bill nobody wants.

The GOP will have to shoot the moon take the Senate.

But if you think it will happen you can make a killing by clicking Toro's link and getting in on the action now, my friend.

 

[Liability]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

LOL!

They won't be winging it.

But they are gonna cream the Dems come the mid-terms.

The fraud that is this Health Care legislation is going to have folks paying massively increased taxes and associated higher costs starting almost immediately.

Not only are people gonna notice that, but the REASON for it is gonna be trumpted.

There will be NO COVER for all the moron Dems who voted for this hideous legislation.

Payback is gonna be a bitch for the Dems. They will lose the House. It is not as clear that they will lose control of the Senate.

 

[Toro]

I also found this poll over at 538.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill

Don't know if it is accurate or not, or much about Public Policy Polling, but it is consistent with the idea that moderates are not seething over this bill.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Well, you can be sure of one thing. Even if the Republicans were to pick up only a few seats in the house and a seat or two in the senate, the rightwing clowns around here will trump it up as a BIG VICTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

btw, how is that Scott Brown Mr. Forty-one thing working out to stop healthcare?

You wingnuts can stop pretending he's a conservative now, now that his usefulness didn't quite work out.

 

[EriktheRed]

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

Did you actually read what OP posted?

 

[Modbert]

I also found this poll over at 538.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill

Don't know if it is accurate or not, or much about Public Policy Polling, but it is consistent with the idea that moderates are not seething over this bill.

Public Policy Polling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Most polls have Moderates pretty much 50/50 on this bill though. So they're not seething as you said Toro.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

LOL!

They won't be winging it.

But they are gonna cream the Dems come the mid-terms.

The fraud that is this Health Care legislation is going to have folks paying massively increased taxes and associated higher costs starting almost immediately.

Not only are people gonna notice that, but the REASON for it is gonna be trumpted.

There will be NO COVER for all the moron Dems who voted for this hideous legislation.

Payback is gonna be a bitch for the Dems. They will lose the House. It is not as clear that they will lose control of the Senate.

It must be nice to be immune to the embarassment of making dumbass predictions and being dead wrong...or should I say dread wrong?

 

[Sarah G]

Good analysis, and I HOPE the GOP doesn't wing a single seat.

LOL!

They won't be winging it.

But they are gonna cream the Dems come the mid-terms.

The fraud that is this Health Care legislation is going to have folks paying massively increased taxes and associated higher costs starting almost immediately.

Not only are people gonna notice that, but the REASON for it is gonna be trumpted.

There will be NO COVER for all the moron Dems who voted for this hideous legislation.

Payback is gonna be a bitch for the Dems. They will lose the House. It is not as clear that they will lose control of the Senate.

I agree. The cons running should continue telling the voters what they are gonna do

 

[NYcarbineer]

Thankfully the Republicans have made such incredibly exaggerated predictions of all the horrible things that will be happening to America if this bill passes that they can't possibly be proven right. Nothing that happens as a consequence of this bill is ever going to live up to the sky-falling-doom-and-gloom apocalyptic scaremongering of the right, which will only further diminish their credibility.

 

[Liability]

I also found this poll over at 538.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill

Don't know if it is accurate or not, or much about Public Policy Polling, but it is consistent with the idea that moderates are not seething over this bill.

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do. Fuck; even most of the idiot Congress-critters VOTING on it can't honestly tell you what most of that multi-thousand page miasma says

Moderates will not "seethe" over it until they get clear on what it does -- and when. It undermines our liberties -- but that doesn't start for a few years. When the fucking IRS knocks on your door to verify that you are participating in a "qualified" health care plan, people tend to notice, however. And when the damn IRS starts PENALIZING you for participating in a plan of your own choosing that happens not to meet some arbitrary bureaucrat's daffynition of what is or isn't "qualified" people will REALLY start to take notice. But again, that will not happen at first. This bomb has a delayed fuse on it.

What people may notice a whole lot faster is that fucking EVERYTHING is gonna start costing more. The tax increases kick in right away. When corporations get hit with massively increased taxation, what do they do? They pass along those associated costs to their customers. So the price of everything is gonna go up at the same time that we are already hurting from a bad economy. And because it involves MONEY, the liberal Democratics are not content to set the delay on THAT fuse. Oh no. The heavily increased taxes hit damn near immediately.

People take REAL notice of such stuff and the BLAME is going to be LAID out before the midterms.

Tonight, after this shit passes (which now appears to be a near certainty), the liberal Democratics will be well pleased with themselves. The hangover hits on Election Day.
They are gonna get CREAMED.

 

[rightwinger]

The

I disagree. The economy is about to turn down in a ferocious double dip recession that will last for 2-3 years. The Democrats are going to be fighting for every seat. The Democrats will lose the House in November. The Senate will be very close and Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats, possible 10 - and take back control of the Senate in 2012. PS- Harry Reid is out - he will join the ranks of the unemployed in November.

If Obamacare passes, the gains will be even larger. The next six months will be all about "overturning" Obamacare.

Still waiting Zander.....You have been playing Chicken Little since Obama got elected

Any day now....the economy will crash....any day now

For the side hoping for the economy to fail

Are you really that stupid? The economy has already crashed. We've lost over 7 million jobs since Obama took over and gov't spending is out of control. Sorry, but I am not hoping for the economy to fail - it already has.

PS- "the stock market" is NOT the economy.

The stock market sure as hell helps..

So does three consecutive quarters of rising GDP

So does 10 consecutive months of increase in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators

So does GM getting near to making a profit

So does significant decreases in the rate of job losses

So does an increase of $6 trillion in personal wealth for Americans

So does stable interest rates and inflation

 

[Modbert]

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do.

But let me guess, the majority of people who do "get it" are Conservatives?

Cracks me up. When any poll does not work in one's favor, just call the people ignorant.

 

[EriktheRed]

Tonight, after this shit passes (which now appears to be a near certainty), the liberal Democratics will be well pleased with themselves. The hangover hits on Election Day.
They are gonna get CREAMED.

That sounds kinda familiar.


Now when did I hear that before...?

 

[rightwinger]

Tonight, after this shit passes (which now appears to be a near certainty), the liberal Democratics will be well pleased with themselves. The hangover hits on Election Day.
They are gonna get CREAMED.

That sounds kinda familiar.


Now when did I hear that before...?[/QUOTE

Wishful thinking from the right...

A month from now, the electorate will realize that the passing of healthcare will not end the world as we know it, there will be no death panels, granny will still be alive.

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

 

[Toro]

I wonder how that poll can be accurate?

It is actually pretty consistent. Most people are against this bill. Do the math and we can see how this happens.

20% of the country are liberals, 40% conservatives and 40% moderates. Roughly, liberals are 90% in favor, moderates 50% and conservatives 10%. That gives us a total approval rating of 42%, which is about where this thing has been polling.

I don't think the conservatives' anger is going to go away, but I do think that it will become less of an issue for moderates, which means a negative for them will become less negative come November.

 

[Article 15]

I also found this poll over at 538.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill

Don't know if it is accurate or not, or much about Public Policy Polling, but it is consistent with the idea that moderates are not seething over this bill.

I wonder how that poll can be accurate? It seems to me that most people don't even know what the legislation purports to do. Fuck; even most of the idiot Congress-critters VOTING on it can't honestly tell you what most of that multi-thousand page miasma says

In that case .. how can any poll or prediction be accurate? Including yours.

 

[Toro]

The Key issue in November will be JOBS

Agreed.

Putting healthcare in front of jobs has hurt the Democrats because people are more concerned about jobs than healthcare. From a tactical political standpoint, healthcare has been a disaster for the Democrats. But as the economy starts generating jobs again, this will benefit the Democrats.

 

[Toro]

In that case .. how can any poll or prediction be accurate? Including yours.

I never say that my prediction is accurate. I am merely making an assessment of the future on information I now know. But lots can change in six months.

 

[Modbert]

I never say that my prediction is accurate. I am merely making an assessment of the future on information I now know. But lots can change in six months.

He's talking to Liability, not you.