Predict the Elctoral Outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election

[courseofhistory]

These are mine.

LINK

 

[beretta304]

320 for Romney and 218 for Obama.

 

[Dissent]

Predict a winner: Battleground states - 2012 election - Data Desk - Los Angeles Times

Wow...with what you can choose. Even if Romney takes. Nevada,Iowa,Colorado,New Hampshire,North Carolina,Virginia and Wisconsin Obama still wins! He has to take Florida or Ohio and I don't think he will. I was pushing it giving Iowa and Wisconsin to Romney simply done because Ryan is from Wisconsin and its near Iowa...I still don't think he can take Wisconsin...we shall see...

 

[Dissent]

320 for Romney and 218 for Obama.

How in the world did you get that?

 

[blastoff]

The boy heads back to Hyde Park in January.

 

[Old Rocks]

300+ electorial votes for President Obama.

The numbers have just stayed too steady for months for anything but a major catastrophe to make a differance.

 

[beretta304]

320 for Romney and 218 for Obama.

How in the world did you get that?

It said predict, so I predicted. Nothing scientific about it. Just my guess but I think that I did run across a poll or model somewhere that predicted it. Probbaly stuck in my head.

 

[DiamondDave]

Many battleground/swing states go to Romney... who I think edges it out even with losing Ohio

 

[candycorn]

300+ electorial votes for President Obama.

The numbers have just stayed too steady for months for anything but a major catastrophe to make a differance.

Most compelling evidene there is to point to an Obama win.

 

[DiamondDave]

300+ electorial votes for President Obama.

The numbers have just stayed too steady for months for anything but a major catastrophe to make a differance.

Neither would win with 300+... this is going to be a close election

 

[Dissent]

Damn I glad he didn't say make a bet...these predictions are hilarious.

 

[tjvh]

266 Obama, 272 Romney

 

[courseofhistory]

If you don't do the map, it is hard to tell how you arrived at the conclusion. You have to post it also. I did 3 possible scenarios and Obama still won. Giving Mitt Romney some states he PROBABLY won't win.

It's all guessing but somewhat educated guessing.

 

[Dissent]

Mine was 299 Obama 239 Romney. I don't it will be that close...I think Obama will take Wisconsin and Iowa which I gave to Romney merely because of his VP pick.

 

[Full-Auto]

Predict the Elctoral Outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election

Cronies 27..... citizens zip..........

 

[beretta304]

I pretended to be a Lib and just pulled the numbers out of my ass. Who needs maps and facts. It's a guess by any standard.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 221 Governor Romney 181 Tossup 136

Tossup states

Colorado President Obama 1.6 9 ev

Florida President Obama 1.0 29 ev

Iowa President Obama 0.2 6 ev

Michigan President Obama 2.0 16 ev

Missouri Governor Romney 4.3 10 ev

Nevada President Obama 4.2 6 ev

New Hampshire President Obama 3.5 4 ev

North Carolina Governor Romney 0.7 15 ev

Ohio President Obama 1.4 18 ev

Virginia President Obama 0.6 13 ev

Wisconsin President Obama 1.4 10 ev

A lot of close races, but the President leads in all but two. Not a good sign for the Romney campaign.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[8537]

Ya know what's amazing about that map? Give Romney every single tossup except Florida and he still loses...

Yet he chose Mr End Medicare as We Know It for a running mate.

<Oh, it appears I got that wrong. FL seems to leave him four short.>

 

[barry1960]

Ya know what's amazing about that map? Give Romney every single tossup except Florida and he still loses...

Yet he chose Mr End Medicare as We Know It for a running mate.

<Oh, it appears I got that wrong. FL seems to leave him four short.>

If i were to take a guess today i would predict

Obama 297
Romney 241

There are enough undecided states for the election to tilt the other way, but Obama currently has the edge.

Much will depend on voter turnout in the undecided states.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

300+ electorial votes for President Obama.

The numbers have just stayed too steady for months for anything but a major catastrophe to make a differance.

Neither would win with 300+... this is going to be a close election

This.

Gun to my head, I'd still predict an Obama victory, but I can easily see how it would go Romney at this point. It's still way to early to be certain who will ultimately win, but it isn't going to be a landslide like 2008 or even 2004.

Truth is, if the GOP had a stronger candidate than Romney, Obama would be losing fairly bad. It's taken a fairly weak candidate for Obama to stay up in the electoral count.

For the actual map:

I gave Romney Nevada. There's a strong Mormon population there and in a low turn out election, they'll carry the state for him. I gave Romney Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina as I think Obama will be hard pressed to carry any of those.

I gave Obama New Hampshire.

Wisconsin is a toss up. However, at that point it also doesn't matter. On my map, if Obama carries Florida he flat wins the race. To win, Romney has to carry Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

That isn't impossible, but it's really telling how bad the electoral math is for Romney.