Electoral Tracker

[Czernobog]

Professional Political Prognosticators have been wrong all along regarding the 2016 election...

That's why I'm not prognosticating. All I'm doing is tracking the real time electoral votes.

 

[Skylar]

Professional Political Prognosticators have been wrong all along regarding the 2016 election...

That's why I'm not prognosticating. All I'm doing is tracking the real time electoral votes.

I think you're probably right about West Virginia.

 

[Czernobog]

Professional Political Prognosticators have been wrong all along regarding the 2016 election...

That's why I'm not prognosticating. All I'm doing is tracking the real time electoral votes.

I think you're probably right about West Virginia.

She lost West Virginia 6 months ago. I realize she didn't mean what they thought she meant, but it doesn't matter. The damage was already done.

 

[JimH52]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

Maybe if someone could tape his mouth shut....maybe...

 

[longknife]

FoxNews says the probability is that Trump is within 13 of the needed 270.

 

[Czernobog]

FoxNews says the probability is that Trump is within 13 of the needed 270.

I'd like to know what math they're using, cuz I track this over several different sources, all using different algorithms, and the closest I have seen Trump is 227, and that's a far cry from "within 13".

Hell, RCP's most optimistic estimate (without any tossups) only puts him at 213.

 

[Czernobog]

New electoral count demonstrates the problem that the spoilers are going to create for Clinton:

Clinton: 277
Trump: 214
Tied: 47

What's interesting to note is that the state that Clinton has lost control of is Virginia, in spite of her VP pick, Tim Kaine. As you dig into the polls out of Virginia, you learn that Trump did not gain any ground in Virginia; rather, Clinto lost ground to Gary Johnson.

This seems to be evidence that what many, including myself, have been warning Progressives about, for weeks - Neither Johnson, nor Stein are going to win the election (Johnson only stole a whopping 7% from Clinton), but they will help Trump to beat Clinton, even while being a less popular candidate.

 

[AceRothstein]

New electoral count demonstrates the problem that the spoilers are going to create for Clinton:

Clinton: 277
Trump: 214
Tied: 47

What's interesting to note is that the state that Clinton has lost control of is Virginia, in spite of her VP pick, Tim Kaine. As you dig into the polls out of Virginia, you learn that Trump did not gain any ground in Virginia; rather, Clinto lost ground to Gary Johnson.

This seems to be evidence that what many, including myself, have been warning Progressives about, for weeks - Neither Johnson, nor Stein are going to win the election (Johnson only stole a whopping 7% from Clinton), but they will help Trump to beat Clinton, even while being a less popular candidate.

How is Virginia red? I'm not seeing one poll showing Trump up there.

 

[BIG YANK BAL 1976]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

Trump was facing 16 other clowns, who were all weaker than shit, and who didn't have a clue about anything?? Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina

He's up against a much different animal , who will have a much superior ground game, an unlimited war chest, and who will kick his ass in the debates if he dosen't Pussy out.., and pull a no show..

 

[Czernobog]

I'm not even sure what to make of this. I'll just put it out there, and let you guys speculate on it's importance, or lack thereof. Newest data shifts Arizona to Clinton:

Clinton: 288
Trump: 203
Tied: 47

 

[Czernobog]

North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.

Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47

 

[Czernobog]

With the newest polls, NH has shifted comfortably back into Clinton's favour. It should also be noted that Florida is now leaning towards Clinton.

Clinton: 306
Trump: 214
Tied: 18

 

[auditor0007]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

I am slowly starting to believe that Hillary may win Texas. I find it very likely that she tops 400 electoral votes.

 

[Sadie (D-MD)]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

I am slowly starting to believe that Hillary may win Texas. I find it very likely that she tops 400 electoral votes.

As I said in another thread, those are almost Putin numbers!

FYI, just realized that there was a whole other section just about the election - in another section there is a thread about Hillary and Trump, so yeah.

I tend to like FiveThirtyEight for polling, because they have different (apparently almost real-time, or at least day-to-day) projections based on overall trends, who would win if the election were held today, etc, and then my favorite, the one that shows how much each state's electoral votes matter.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Maryland and Hawaii have 30+ point Dem leads! DC with +70!

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

North Carolina moves back to red. No surprise there.

Clinton: 273
Trump: 218
Tied: 47

Essentially it's going to come down to Ohio and Florida, whoever wins Ohio AND Florida wins the election.

Hillary will win Virginia and possibly North Carolina and also Nevada.

The Donald will win Arizona, I don't know why Mississippi and Georgia are leaning, I think he'll win both Mississippi and Georgia.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Gee, this certainly reminds me of projections last Summer when the "experts" predicted that Trump had a zero chance of being the GOP nominee.

I am slowly starting to believe that Hillary may win Texas. I find it very likely that she tops 400 electoral votes.

No and no.

 

[sealybobo]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.

I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.

 

[sealybobo]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.

I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.

I know!

New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

By way of explanation, every elections cycle, there ends up being discussion ad nasueum about polls, and raw popular votes. I realized some time ago that the popular vote is, in many ways, irrelevant. Let us say, for instance, that Trump wins the popular vote in, say the entire North East corridor, but loses California, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Theoretically, while he may have won the popular vote in a plurality of states, if they are the wrong states, he will still lose the election, because of the electoral college. So, while everyone else debates the daily, and weekly polls, and who is ahead, I spend my time looking at the states, and watching who has what electoral votes. I track it daily, and will post any changes to the electoral map, as they come.

July 26th - Looks like Trump picked up Nevada, and Ohio coming off the convention:

We'll have to see if he can hold on to those. Current count:>

Clinton: 288
Trump: 221
Tied: 29

Florida remains a consistent dead heat.

Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.

I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.

I know!

New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.

I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.

The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.

Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.

My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.