Updates on 2024 Electoral College Projections and Pollster Ratings Not Good For One Party Not at All

Procrustes Stretched

And you say, "Oh my God, am I here all alone?"
Dec 1, 2008
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There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

electoral map 2024 projections.png

and as far as the polls people are following?

pollsters 538 ratings.png

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.
 
There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

View attachment 893966

and as far as the polls people are following?

View attachment 893967

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.

Thanks.

There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game.

But you're posting the 2020 numbers, you're not posting the 2024 numbers.


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There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

View attachment 893966

and as far as the polls people are following?

View attachment 893967

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.
Yeah sure, Biden is doing GREAT!!! :cuckoo:
 
There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

View attachment 893966

and as far as the polls people are following?

View attachment 893967

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.
The people who actually have money on the line and arent biased by their own political views disagree. Vegas odds have Trump winning by a large margin. The odds of Biden winning are slim.

 
There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

View attachment 893966

and as far as the polls people are following?

View attachment 893967

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.
Again, Trump has not made any inroads into winning over independents in the swing states he lost in 2020.
Therefore, his road to 270 is the same. And the result?...will likely be the same as well.
 
There appears to be a growing suggestion that Mr. Trump is bound to lose by about the same numbers in the EC game. I'm wondering what the percentages will be in the popular vote.

As it stand now -- 270 to Win has...

View attachment 893966

and as far as the polls people are following?

View attachment 893967

I trust 538, because they explain in detail how they come to these ratings.

1706394359522.png


Moron. They took the 2020 vote totals and took into account the change in electoral votes because of the 2020 census. Red states gained 3 net votes.
 
Again, Trump has not made any inroads into winning over independents in the swing states he lost in 2020.
Therefore, his road to 270 is the same. And the result?...will likely be the same as well.
Last i saw, Trump was leading in every single swing state but 1. :dunno:
 
name them
The poll, published Thursday from Morning Consult and Bloomberg News, found Biden is trailing the former president by an average of 5.28 percentage points in the seven swing states surveyed — North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Trump held his strongest lead over Biden in North Carolina — 11 points — followed by Georgia — 7 points.

The former president is leading in Wisconsin by 6 points and Nevada by 5 points, pollsters found. His smallest leads are in Michigan and Arizona, leading by 4 and 3 points, respectively.
 
Looking at it all, the forecasts and the ultimate votes:



add in: Are Swing States Ready for 2024?

The 2024 projections map will change. We can all agree that counting on Trump to run into the proverbial china shop like a raging bull, only seriously wounded this time...

Trump momentum, is being overrated. It sells, but is it reality based.
 

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