Electoral Tracker

[Czernobog]

I know!

New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.

I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.

The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.

Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.

My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.

You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.

There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.

The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?

So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.

I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.

This is why I choose to track the electoral rather than the popular polls. You're right. It's all about the electoral college. This is a "national", but it is a national race divided into 50 electoral races. What really matters in a presidential race is which states a candidate wins.

Your electoral system is incomprehensible to non-Americans. Why do you have the Electoral College vote and the Popular Vote, when ONLY the Electoral College vote matters?

A candidate could win the Popular Vote 60% to 40%, but the candidate with the minimum votes of 40% would become President if they won the Electoral College vote.

So that candidate who became President, has been rejected by 60% of the population.

I think that might be a bit extreme, as the electoral college is determined by the popular vote in each state, with the number of electoral votes determined by state population.

So, while a loss of national popular vote, while still winning the electoral vote is possible, I don't believe your 20% difference could ever be achieved. Usually, when a candidate wins by electoral, but loses by popular, that popular loss is within points of each other.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[sealybobo]

Change Georgia to Blue. Michigan blue and PA blue.

I've been reading about all American elections since 1980, and I can't understand how you think Hillary win's Georgia, the last Democrat to win Georgia was Bill, but Georgia has become more Conservative since.

I know!

New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.

I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.

The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.

Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.

My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.

You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.

There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.

The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?

So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.

I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.

I don't care that Trump got more votes in a primary than anyone else ever. Here's why. Those were all people who were never going to vote for Hillary anyways. They are just people who normally don't vote in Republican primaries. So rather than establishment Republicans deciding who is going to be the nominee (Kasich, Rubio, cruz, jeb), the crazy Republicans like teabaggers and libertarians and disgruntled Republicans showed up and took over the party. This is going to be horrible for Republicans just watch.

 

[sealybobo]

I know!

New poll has Georgia leaning Clinton

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Georgia is a red state, but that is now in jeopardy. That fact that this is even up in the air is amazing. Great job, Trumpers.

I put little stock in opinion polls, especially ones that are taken three months away from an actual election.

The situation is, IMHO, the election result isn't going to be a landslide for either candidate.

Hillary is a very flawed candidate and she has a lot of baggage and she's a very polarising figure. The Donald is a very flawed candidate and he has a lot of baggage and he's a very polarising figure.

My reading of all of this is, that all established Blue states will be in Hillary's column and that all established Red states will be in The Donald's column and that essentially it'll come down to Ohio and Florida and whoever wins both of these, wins the election, if I've read correctly nobody has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.

You're thinking is so 2000. Georgia is going to turn blue. Texas might go blue. PA, FL, hell probably even Ohio is going to go blue this year. Michigan will go blue.

There's also the possibility that Hillary could win the EC vote and that The Donald win's the Popular Vote, people should remember, that despite what the incredibly biased MSM are commenting regarding The Donald and the Republican Party, that in sheer raw vote totals from the Primaries and Caucuses, The Donald received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history.

The Republican Party apparatus aren't a fan of his, and it's not too surprising that they're not, because not only isn't The Donald an ass-kissing career politician, he also has refused to tow the Republican Party line, which is essentially being a part of the Uni-Party ie. the Republicrats of Paul Ryan, John McCain, John Boehner, Mitt Romney etc. As such The Donald has them terrified and it's good that he does, because what's the point of having more than one political party when they've almost merged into the Republicrats?

So whilst The Republican Party aren't fans of The Donald, he's very popular with a substantial section of the American public.

I put no stock in most opinion polls, for instance, someone in another thread posted a recent opinion poll that had Hillary with I think a 4 point lead, when one read into the circumstances of that poll, the pollsters had over-polled Democrats by 12%, so that poll cannot be considered a valid poll, it was a deliberately weighted poll.

This is why I choose to track the electoral rather than the popular polls. You're right. It's all about the electoral college. This is a "national", but it is a national race divided into 50 electoral races. What really matters in a presidential race is which states a candidate wins.

Your electoral system is incomprehensible to non-Americans. Why do you have the Electoral College vote and the Popular Vote, when ONLY the Electoral College vote matters?

A candidate could win the Popular Vote 60% to 40%, but the candidate with the minimum votes of 40% would become President if they won the Electoral College vote.

So that candidate who became President, has been rejected by 60% of the population.

Who cares if 100% of Texans vote for Trump. Texas is only worth so many electoral votes.

 

[AceRothstein]

Newest polls have Georgia slipping into tied, and Michigan sliding more solidly Clinton:

Clinton: 306
Trump: 198
Tied: 34

I agree with the pundits that Georgia will most likely end up breaking for Trump. However, it bodes badly for the Trump campaign that Georgia would even be in question.

Why do you continue to show Virginia in red? Trump has led a grand total of zero Virginia polls.

 

[Czernobog]

Newest polls have Georgia slipping into tied, and Michigan sliding more solidly Clinton:

Clinton: 306
Trump: 198
Tied: 34

I agree with the pundits that Georgia will most likely end up breaking for Trump. However, it bodes badly for the Trump campaign that Georgia would even be in question.

Why do you continue to show Virginia in red? Trump has led a grand total of zero Virginia polls.

This was the most recent poll in Virginia, showing Trump with a very slight lead.

 

[AceRothstein]

Newest polls have Georgia slipping into tied, and Michigan sliding more solidly Clinton:

Clinton: 306
Trump: 198
Tied: 34

I agree with the pundits that Georgia will most likely end up breaking for Trump. However, it bodes badly for the Trump campaign that Georgia would even be in question.

Why do you continue to show Virginia in red? Trump has led a grand total of zero Virginia polls.

This was the most recent poll in Virginia, showing Trump with a very slight lead.

Ah, RCP doesn't have that one for some reason.

Here is the newest VA poll. YouGov | 2016 Battlegrounds: Trump keeps it close in Southwest, faces steep climb in Virginia

 

[Czernobog]

Newest polls have Georgia slipping into tied, and Michigan sliding more solidly Clinton:

Clinton: 306
Trump: 198
Tied: 34

I agree with the pundits that Georgia will most likely end up breaking for Trump. However, it bodes badly for the Trump campaign that Georgia would even be in question.

Why do you continue to show Virginia in red? Trump has led a grand total of zero Virginia polls.

This was the most recent poll in Virginia, showing Trump with a very slight lead.

Ah, RCP doesn't have that one for some reason.

Here is the newest VA poll. YouGov | 2016 Battlegrounds: Trump keeps it close in Southwest, faces steep climb in Virginia

Yeah. electoral.com won't even use that particular polling, because it has been demonstrated that YouGov is left-leaning, and electoral tries to avoid polls with a political bent. Oddly enough, they do include Rassmussen. Although I think that may be because Rassmussen was considered an established polling service long before their ideological leanings were ever made public, so most aggregate tracking still includes them, while understanding that they are usually an outlier.

 

[Czernobog]

And Virginia just went for Hillary - surprising absolutely no one.

Clinton:319
Trump:185
Tied:34

 

[Czernobog]

Georgia is leaning towards Hillary, now?!?!?

Clinton: 335
Trump: 185
Tied: 18
To understand the catastrophic implications of this, one needs to see this in historical context. Georgia has not boted for a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1992:

RECENT ELECTIONS
2012: 45.5% 53.3%
2008: 47.0% 52.2%
2004: 41.4% 58.0%
2000: 43.0% 54.7%
1996: 45.8% 47.0%

The Trump trainwreck needs to correct course soon, or he will have no time to turn things around. The good news is that Utah is polling even stronger for Trump. Then again, they were laready polling for Trump, so that doesn't really do a whole lot for him.

 

[Czernobog]

..and now Ohio falls. This is looking worse, and worse for Trump:

Clinton: 353
Trump: 179
Tied: 6

 

[Old Rocks]

A couple more statements like the one he made last night, and Texas will be in play. Clinton might well win with 400 ev's/

 

[Toro]

Unless it shows Trump winning, it's lying.

 

[longknife]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

 

[Czernobog]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

I'm not making any predictions. I am posting the electoral map, as it is updated. Are you disputing that the map is what it is? On what are you basing that dispute?

 

[AceRothstein]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

I'm not making any predictions. I am posting the electoral map, as it is updated. Are you disputing that the map is what it is? On what are you basing that dispute?

They don't like the results therefore they are wrong. Feels before reals.

 

[Toro]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

I'm not making any predictions. I am posting the electoral map, as it is updated. Are you disputing that the map is what it is? On what are you basing that dispute?

They don't like the results therefore they are wrong. Feels before reals.

Feels before reals.

lol

 

[longknife]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

I'm not making any predictions. I am posting the electoral map, as it is updated. Are you disputing that the map is what it is? On what are you basing that dispute?

I believe you are reporting what you find in an effort to give some good information. My problem is that is all a matter of predicting based on old norms. This election has been anything but routine and I do not think traditional models will prove to be valid.

 

[Czernobog]

I really don't know why I follow this thread. I know you are claiming to have some expertise on this and believe your projections are valid - but ...

I'm not making any predictions. I am posting the electoral map, as it is updated. Are you disputing that the map is what it is? On what are you basing that dispute?

I believe you are reporting what you find in an effort to give some good information. My problem is that is all a matter of predicting based on old norms. This election has been anything but routine and I do not think traditional models will prove to be valid.

Yeah, but as Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot, I'm beginning to think these electoral numbers are looking more, and more solid.

Sent from my 5054N using Tapatalk

 

[longknife]

Well, I am certain there will be a huge flashback to this, but here's a poll that should certainly stir things up.

 

[Czernobog]

Well, I am certain there will be a huge flashback to this, but here's a poll that should certainly stir things up.

LMFAO! Yeah. Okay. We heard this before. unskewed.com anyone? So, why can I not find anything on this miracle poll, beyond this meme image?