Early voting stats by state

[DavidS]

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress

According to Michael McDonald's terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

So when McCain's pollster talks about Obama's black vote being "locked in", he is at best getting the story half-right. It's true that there aren't very many African-Americans who are reporting themselves as undecided. But any polling based on 2004 assumptions about what black turnout will look like is probably going to miss the mark significantly.

Frankly, I do think that McCain is the favorite to win a majority of undecideds (but a majority means like 55-60%, not some ridiculous fraction like 70%).

But I also think that the polls are probably undercounting Obama's decided vote, particularly among African-Americans, and young persons with cellphones.

 

[xsited1]

 

[WillowTree]

there's lots of dead people voting early too, before the stiffness sets in.

 

[DavidS]

That cartoon is innacurate. There are no black people in Utah.

 

[Jon]

That cartoon is innacurate. There are no people in Wyoming.

Fixed.

 

[The Paperboy]

In Florida early voting is even between Dems and Republicans.

 

[Wade]

Hopefully, they all get ONE vote.

 

[xsited1]

That cartoon is innacurate. There are no black people in Utah.

There's a large hispanic population that works out in the sun all the time who could pass for black.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

In Georgia, African-Americans are waiting in line for up to 4 hours to vote. They're often supported by the surrounding communities who bring coffee, hot chocolate, and donuts to those standing in line.

In Dekalb County, they've registered the highest early voting in state history, far exceededing the early voting in rural districts.

Obama may win Georgia .. and his coattails may also send Jim Martin, a democrat running for the Senate to victory.

I suspect many will come to regret their vote for Obama.

 

[strollingbones]

i live in a "white zone" early voting is way up here too...what does that mean?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

i live in a "white zone" early voting is way up here too...what does that mean?

Nothing, this is more wishful thinking by certain partisan hacks.

 

[rayboyusmc]

Racist cartoon, but what can you expect from and X-Bot?

there's lots of dead people voting early too, before the stiffness sets in.

Voter fraud, the perrenial boogeyman of the right, will never destroy the very fucking fabric of our democracy as McDisphit said. The Bush judiciary went after voter fraud and ended up actually prosecuting 56 for the last election.

That is nothing compared to the thousands who are being disenfranchised by the right wing election fraud machine.

95,000 in Florida on the felons list for 2000. So flawed that the number who could of voted would have given Florida to Gore.

Fuck your fake ACORN crap.

 

[DavidS]

2008 Early Voting

Here's what's REALLY important:

Florida: Out of 2,590,640 - Dem - 45%, Repub 39%, Ind 15.6%
Colorado: Out of 958,508 - Dem - 38.6%, Repub 37.9%, Ind 23.5%
Louisiana: Out of 264,361 - Dem 58.4%, Repub 28.5%, Ind 13.1%
Nevada: Out of 376,139 - Dem - 52.15%, Repub 29.6%, Ind 16.7%
New Mexico: Out of 104,179 - Dem 55.1%, Repub 32.3%, Ind 12.6%

In 5 out 5 swing state, Democrats lead Republicans in the number of registered voters who are voting and with the exception of Colorado, lead the number of registered voters who are voting by a landslide.

These are not polls, there is no guessing, no science, this is just accumulated voting.

 

[AVG-JOE]

I have to admit... I was kind of hoping that early vote tabulations would not be published until 8 pm West-Coast time, November 4.

PLEASE VOTE ANYWAY!!!

-Joe

 

[sealybobo]

2008 Early Voting

Here's what's REALLY important:

Florida: Out of 2,590,640 - Dem - 45%, Repub 39%, Ind 15.6%
Colorado: Out of 958,508 - Dem - 38.6%, Repub 37.9%, Ind 23.5%
Louisiana: Out of 264,361 - Dem 58.4%, Repub 28.5%, Ind 13.1%
Nevada: Out of 376,139 - Dem - 52.15%, Repub 29.6%, Ind 16.7%
New Mexico: Out of 104,179 - Dem 55.1%, Repub 32.3%, Ind 12.6%

In 5 out 5 swing state, Democrats lead Republicans in the number of registered voters who are voting and with the exception of Colorado, lead the number of registered voters who are voting by a landslide.

These are not polls, there is no guessing, no science, this is just accumulated voting.

A judge somewhere in America, maybe Ohio, ruled that you can not wear Obama or McCain pins or shirts when you go vote. That's bullshit! I think we should all wear either Blue or Red. So when they see 75% of the people showing up all day are wearing Blue, they can't steal the election or lie about the results.

 

[xsited1]

 

[DavidS]

A judge somewhere in America, maybe Ohio, ruled that you can not wear Obama or McCain pins or shirts when you go vote. That's bullshit! I think we should all wear either Blue or Red. So when they see 75% of the people showing up all day are wearing Blue, they can't steal the election or lie about the results.

Who's they? Do they have hidden cameras somewhere watching you vote? Come on.

 

[DavidS]

That's hilarious!

 

[sealybobo]

Who's they? Do they have hidden cameras somewhere watching you vote? Come on.

The legions of lawyers and poll watchers and exit pollers that will be there to help challanged voters who've been purged from the lists.

We're not letting it happen again.

We have to get rid of electronic voting machines that don't have a paper trail. Every state does it different.

People in democratic districts will be waiting hours to vote in some cases. That's why this early voting is GREAT!!!

 

[xsited1]

That's hilarious!

Glad you like humor. If McCain was ahead, I'd be posting crazy pictures of him. Although I do enjoy people calling me a racist, homophobe, Republican, Democrat, Con, Lib, intolerant, etc., when I'm joking around.