Early voting stats by state

Discussion in 'Congress' started by DavidS, Oct 28, 2008.

  1. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress

    According to Michael McDonald's terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

    Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

    [​IMG]

    The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

    This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

    So when McCain's pollster talks about Obama's black vote being "locked in", he is at best getting the story half-right. It's true that there aren't very many African-Americans who are reporting themselves as undecided. But any polling based on 2004 assumptions about what black turnout will look like is probably going to miss the mark significantly.

    Frankly, I do think that McCain is the favorite to win a majority of undecideds (but a majority means like 55-60%, not some ridiculous fraction like 70%).

    But I also think that the polls are probably undercounting Obama's decided vote, particularly among African-Americans, and young persons with cellphones.
     
  2. xsited1
    Offline

    xsited1 Agent P

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    17,750
    Thanks Received:
    5,299
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Location:
    Little Rock, AR
    Ratings:
    +5,306
    [​IMG]
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  3. WillowTree
    Offline

    WillowTree Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    68,147
    Thanks Received:
    10,164
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Ratings:
    +14,703
    there's lots of dead people voting early too, before the stiffness sets in.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  4. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    That cartoon is innacurate. There are no black people in Utah.
     
  5. Jon
    Offline

    Jon The CPA

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2008
    Messages:
    8,101
    Thanks Received:
    1,276
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Fayetteville, AR
    Ratings:
    +1,281
    Fixed.
     
  6. The Paperboy
    Offline

    The Paperboy Times Square

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2008
    Messages:
    1,837
    Thanks Received:
    116
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Times Square
    Ratings:
    +116
    In Florida early voting is even between Dems and Republicans.
     
  7. Wade
    Offline

    Wade Member

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2008
    Messages:
    90
    Thanks Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    6
    Ratings:
    +9
    Hopefully, they all get ONE vote.
     
  8. xsited1
    Offline

    xsited1 Agent P

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    17,750
    Thanks Received:
    5,299
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Location:
    Little Rock, AR
    Ratings:
    +5,306
    There's a large hispanic population that works out in the sun all the time who could pass for black.
     
  9. BlackAsCoal
    Offline

    BlackAsCoal Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2008
    Messages:
    5,203
    Thanks Received:
    528
    Trophy Points:
    155
    Ratings:
    +1,884
    In Georgia, African-Americans are waiting in line for up to 4 hours to vote. They're often supported by the surrounding communities who bring coffee, hot chocolate, and donuts to those standing in line.

    In Dekalb County, they've registered the highest early voting in state history, far exceededing the early voting in rural districts.

    Obama may win Georgia .. and his coattails may also send Jim Martin, a democrat running for the Senate to victory.

    I suspect many will come to regret their vote for Obama.
     
  10. strollingbones
    Offline

    strollingbones Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2008
    Messages:
    65,643
    Thanks Received:
    15,621
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    chicken farm
    Ratings:
    +31,939
    i live in a "white zone" early voting is way up here too...what does that mean?
     

Share This Page