drought, usa

[Mr. H.]

Here's an interesting drought story...

Drought May Have Killed Sumerian Language - Yahoo! News

SAN FRANCISCO — A 200-year-long drought 4,200 years ago may have killed off the ancient Sumerian language, one geologist says.

Because no written accounts explicitly mention drought as the reason for the Sumerian demise, the conclusions rely on indirect clues. But several pieces of archaeological and geological evidence tie the gradual decline of the Sumerian civilization to a drought.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Here's an interesting drought story...

Drought May Have Killed Sumerian Language - Yahoo! News

SAN FRANCISCO — A 200-year-long drought 4,200 years ago may have killed off the ancient Sumerian language, one geologist says.

Because no written accounts explicitly mention drought as the reason for the Sumerian demise, the conclusions rely on indirect clues. But several pieces of archaeological and geological evidence tie the gradual decline of the Sumerian civilization to a drought.

Yeah that AGW is nothing to sneeze at or make fun of

 

[RollingThunder]

No dummy. I am ppinting out that wildfires occur all the damned time and have done so for so long that in southern California they are ESSENTIAL to the life cycles of many of the native flora...that's plants for you un-educated types.

That means dumb ass, that if you have no wildfires in California you have no native plant species anymore. Got it? I didn't think so.

Damn dude, do you just love playing with yourself? Do you set up 'straw-man' arguments deliberately or are you just too stupid to understand what everyone is talking about. Who ever said that there weren't supposed to be any wildfires? Try to keep up with the actual debate, little retard. The topic being discussed is the increase in the number and severity of wildfires in recent years as global warming dries out large parts of our country.

Wildfires
California Fire Science Consortium
July 27, 2012
(This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. You are free: to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work)

A Climate Central article about the 2011 fire season noted that "major wildfires require several factors to come together," and that wildfires are strongly influenced by regional climate conditions, which in turn are influenced by global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions:

As with most extreme weather and climate events, and their related impacts, major wildfires require several factors to come together in order [to] occur -- typically some combination of dry and windy weather, abundant and dry vegetation, and a spark, which can range from a carelessly tossed cigarette to a lightning strike.

Wildfires are a naturally occurring phenomenon closely tied to climate conditions, and as the world warms in response to rising amounts of greenhouse gases in the air, many studies show that wildfire frequency and severity will likely shift as well.

Historical variations in climate can explain much of the large year-to-year and decade-to-decade variations in Western US fire activity. Thus, climate change is already increasing wildfire activity in the Western US. This may seem surprising, given the number of other factors (including forest management practices) that are known to affect fire activity. [Climate Central, 6/21/11]​

Major Climate Report: "Wildfires in the United States Are Already Increasing Due To Warming". In a comprehensive report commissioned by the Bush administration and released in June 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program said earlier snowmelt and drying of soils and plants have worsened wildfires in Western states:

Wildfires in the United States are already increasing due to warming. In the West, there has been a nearly fourfold increase in large wildfires in recent decades, with greater fire frequency, longer fire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. This increase is strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt, which have caused drying of soils and vegetation. [U.S. Global Change Research Program, 6/16/09]​

The report included the following chart showing that the number of acres burned per fire has increased significantly since the 1980s:

A 2010 National Research Council report summarizing the state of climate science also stated that "the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months":

Large and long-duration forest fires have increased fourfold over the past 30 years in the American West; the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months; and the size of wildfires has increased several-fold. Recent research indicates that earlier snowmelt, temperature changes, and drought associated with climate change are important contributors to this increase in forest fire. [National Research Council, 5/19/10]​

National Research Council: Warming Expected To Expand Area Burned By Wildfires In Western North America. In a 2010 report, the National Research Council said that "for warming levels of 1°C to 2°C, the area burned by wildfire in parts of western North America is expected to increase by 2 to 4 times for each degree (°C) of global warming." Particularly vulnerable areas "include the Pacific Northwest and forested regions of the Rockies and the Sierra," according to the report, which also included the following map showing projected increases in "area burned for a 1°C increase in global average temperature" relative to the median annual area burned from 1950-2003.

Warming Has Boosted Tree-Killing Beetles, Adding Fuel For Fires. A National Academies website notes that the warming trend has boosted the population of bark beetles that kill trees in western forests:

This increase in wildfire is a legacy of both a changing climate and decades of total fire suppression that has resulted in a buildup of dead fuels. One important factor is drought. Wintertime precipitation is increasingly falling as rain instead of snow, and the snow that does accumulate is melting earlier in the spring--decreasing the amount of water available in the late summer months and contributing to longer and more intense droughts. Compounding the effects of these droughts is the increased susceptibility of drought-stressed trees to attacking insects. In the last decade, a bark beetle epidemic has exploded across 18,000 square miles of western mountain forests. Milder winter temperatures kill fewer beetles in their budworm phase than the colder winters of the past, helping to increase the bark beetle population, with devastating effects. As the beetles kill vast areas of forest, they leave standing dead wood, fueling even larger wildfires. [National Academies, accessed 6/28/12]​

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)

Geee, I wonder why they don't compare the wildffire ratio from the last 50 years? Maybe because it would flatten that little ol graph right out. But once again that would be factual and you guys don't do facts...you do propaganda.

It is just amazing how you can be wrong about just about everything and still manage to live in some kind of private fantasy world where you're right and the rest of the world is wrong, all the scientists are wrong and are "spreading propaganda" and the oil companies are, I suppose, 'spreading the truth'. Amazing and extremely hilarious. Now let's see, whats that you said....."Geee, I wonder why they don't compare the wildffire(sic) ratio from the last 50 years?".....Geee, I have wonder why you didn't bother to even check to see if anyone had scientifically studied longer term wildfire "ratios" (maybe even over much longer timeframes than last 50 years too) before parading your ignorance?......maybe it's 'cause you're such a classic victim of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.....and pretty retarded too, of course.....but then the two kind of go together.....as you exemplify so well......anyway sport, here you go.....

A look back suggests a sobering future of wildfire dangers in U.S. west
University of Oregon
Feb. 14, 2012
(excerpts)
EUGENE, Ore. -- The American West has seen a recent increase in large wildfires due to droughts, the build-up of combustible fuel, or biomass, in forests, a spread of fire-prone species and increased tree mortality from insects and heat. In a paper appearing online Feb. 14 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a 12-member research team warns that these conditions may be "a perfect storm" for more fires. While grazing and fire suppression have kept incidents of wildfires unusually low for most of the last century, the amounts of combustible biomass, temperatures and drought are all rising. "Consequently, a fire deficit now exists and has been growing throughout the 20th century, pushing fire regimes into disequilibrium with climate," the team concludes.

Comparing charcoal records and climate data, as expected, showed warm, dry intervals, such as the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" between 1,000 and 700 years ago, which had more burning, and cool, moist intervals, such as the "Little Ice Age" between 500 and 300 years ago, had fewer fires. Short-term peaks in fires were associated with abrupt climate changes -- warming or cooling. "We can use the relationship between climate and fire," Marlon said, "to answer the question: What would the natural level of fire be like today if we didn't work so hard to suppress or eliminate fires? The answer is that because of climate change and the buildup of fuels across the western U.S., levels of burning would be higher than at any time over the past 3,000 years, including the peak in burning during the Medieval Climate Anomaly."

 

[westwall]

Damn dude, do you just love playing with yourself? Do you set up 'straw-man' arguments deliberately or are you just too stupid to understand what everyone is talking about. Who ever said that there weren't supposed to be any wildfires? Try to keep up with the actual debate, little retard. The topic being discussed is the increase in the number and severity of wildfires in recent years as global warming dries out large parts of our country.

Wildfires
California Fire Science Consortium
July 27, 2012
(This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. You are free: to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work)

A Climate Central article about the 2011 fire season noted that "major wildfires require several factors to come together," and that wildfires are strongly influenced by regional climate conditions, which in turn are influenced by global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions:

As with most extreme weather and climate events, and their related impacts, major wildfires require several factors to come together in order [to] occur -- typically some combination of dry and windy weather, abundant and dry vegetation, and a spark, which can range from a carelessly tossed cigarette to a lightning strike.

Wildfires are a naturally occurring phenomenon closely tied to climate conditions, and as the world warms in response to rising amounts of greenhouse gases in the air, many studies show that wildfire frequency and severity will likely shift as well.

Historical variations in climate can explain much of the large year-to-year and decade-to-decade variations in Western US fire activity. Thus, climate change is already increasing wildfire activity in the Western US. This may seem surprising, given the number of other factors (including forest management practices) that are known to affect fire activity. [Climate Central, 6/21/11]​

Major Climate Report: "Wildfires in the United States Are Already Increasing Due To Warming". In a comprehensive report commissioned by the Bush administration and released in June 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program said earlier snowmelt and drying of soils and plants have worsened wildfires in Western states:

Wildfires in the United States are already increasing due to warming. In the West, there has been a nearly fourfold increase in large wildfires in recent decades, with greater fire frequency, longer fire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. This increase is strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt, which have caused drying of soils and vegetation. [U.S. Global Change Research Program, 6/16/09]​

The report included the following chart showing that the number of acres burned per fire has increased significantly since the 1980s:

A 2010 National Research Council report summarizing the state of climate science also stated that "the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months":

Large and long-duration forest fires have increased fourfold over the past 30 years in the American West; the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months; and the size of wildfires has increased several-fold. Recent research indicates that earlier snowmelt, temperature changes, and drought associated with climate change are important contributors to this increase in forest fire. [National Research Council, 5/19/10]​

National Research Council: Warming Expected To Expand Area Burned By Wildfires In Western North America. In a 2010 report, the National Research Council said that "for warming levels of 1°C to 2°C, the area burned by wildfire in parts of western North America is expected to increase by 2 to 4 times for each degree (°C) of global warming." Particularly vulnerable areas "include the Pacific Northwest and forested regions of the Rockies and the Sierra," according to the report, which also included the following map showing projected increases in "area burned for a 1°C increase in global average temperature" relative to the median annual area burned from 1950-2003.

Warming Has Boosted Tree-Killing Beetles, Adding Fuel For Fires. A National Academies website notes that the warming trend has boosted the population of bark beetles that kill trees in western forests:

This increase in wildfire is a legacy of both a changing climate and decades of total fire suppression that has resulted in a buildup of dead fuels. One important factor is drought. Wintertime precipitation is increasingly falling as rain instead of snow, and the snow that does accumulate is melting earlier in the spring--decreasing the amount of water available in the late summer months and contributing to longer and more intense droughts. Compounding the effects of these droughts is the increased susceptibility of drought-stressed trees to attacking insects. In the last decade, a bark beetle epidemic has exploded across 18,000 square miles of western mountain forests. Milder winter temperatures kill fewer beetles in their budworm phase than the colder winters of the past, helping to increase the bark beetle population, with devastating effects. As the beetles kill vast areas of forest, they leave standing dead wood, fueling even larger wildfires. [National Academies, accessed 6/28/12]​

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)

Geee, I wonder why they don't compare the wildffire ratio from the last 50 years? Maybe because it would flatten that little ol graph right out. But once again that would be factual and you guys don't do facts...you do propaganda.

It is just amazing how you can be wrong about just about everything and still manage to live in some kind of private fantasy world where you're right and the rest of the world is wrong, all the scientists are wrong and are "spreading propaganda" and the oil companies are, I suppose, 'spreading the truth'. Amazing and extremely hilarious. Now let's see, whats that you said....."Geee, I wonder why they don't compare the wildffire(sic) ratio from the last 50 years?".....Geee, I have wonder why you didn't bother to even check to see if anyone had scientifically studied longer term wildfire "ratios" (maybe even over much longer timeframes than last 50 years too) before parading your ignorance?......maybe it's 'cause you're such a classic victim of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.....and pretty retarded too, of course.....but then the two kind of go together.....as you exemplify so well......anyway sport, here you go.....

A look back suggests a sobering future of wildfire dangers in U.S. west
University of Oregon
Feb. 14, 2012
(excerpts)
EUGENE, Ore. -- The American West has seen a recent increase in large wildfires due to droughts, the build-up of combustible fuel, or biomass, in forests, a spread of fire-prone species and increased tree mortality from insects and heat. In a paper appearing online Feb. 14 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a 12-member research team warns that these conditions may be "a perfect storm" for more fires. While grazing and fire suppression have kept incidents of wildfires unusually low for most of the last century, the amounts of combustible biomass, temperatures and drought are all rising. "Consequently, a fire deficit now exists and has been growing throughout the 20th century, pushing fire regimes into disequilibrium with climate," the team concludes.

Comparing charcoal records and climate data, as expected, showed warm, dry intervals, such as the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" between 1,000 and 700 years ago, which had more burning, and cool, moist intervals, such as the "Little Ice Age" between 500 and 300 years ago, had fewer fires. Short-term peaks in fires were associated with abrupt climate changes -- warming or cooling. "We can use the relationship between climate and fire," Marlon said, "to answer the question: What would the natural level of fire be like today if we didn't work so hard to suppress or eliminate fires? The answer is that because of climate change and the buildup of fuels across the western U.S., levels of burning would be higher than at any time over the past 3,000 years, including the peak in burning during the Medieval Climate Anomaly."

How very cute. They minimise the buildup of fuel (mandated by environmentalists in many areas like here in Tahoe where they won't let homeowners clear the fallen trees) the invasive species like cheatgrass that are much more combustible than the native species, and the tree mortality that is due to insect infestation and instead blame most of the issue on warming that hasn't occurred in 16 years.

The denial of science by you clowns is astonishing.

 

[mamooth]

Poor Westy is so ignorant of the science, he doesn't even know that the warming causes the beetle outbreaks.

He also seems to think that it's practical to manually clear the brush from the entire western USA, and that only a dirty liberal plot has stopped such a teentsy little task from being accomplished.

And then he tops it off with a whackaloon claim of no warming, a claim so at odds with observed reality that you wonder if he could possibly be dumb enough to actually believe it.

 

[Old Rocks]

The expansion of the area of serious drought in the last few months is getting rather serious. We need major snow in the mountains and plains.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif

 

[westwall]

Poor Westy is so ignorant of the science, he doesn't even know that the warming causes the beetle outbreaks.

He also seems to think that it's practical to manually clear the brush from the entire western USA, and that only a dirty liberal plot has stopped such a teentsy little task from being accomplished.

And then he tops it off with a whackaloon claim of no warming, a claim so at odds with observed reality that you wonder if he could possibly be dumb enough to actually believe it.

I didn't make the claim little kitty. The UK's Met Office did. And no, nimrod, heat doesn't increase beetle infestations.



"The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years"

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online


The mountain pine beetle is known to infest the ponderosa, lodgepole, Scotch and lumber pine trees that grow along the Rocky Mountains in the western part of the country. These beetles start by attacking pine trees that have already been damaged by overcrowding, fire or lack of nutrition. As the infestation and population increase, healthier trees surrounding those already infested also begin to show symptoms of damage.

Read more: The Symptoms of Pine Beetles | eHow.com The Symptoms of Pine Beetles | eHow.com

 

[depotoo]

No dummy. I am ppinting out that wildfires occur all the damned time and have done so for so long that in southern California they are ESSENTIAL to the life cycles of many of the native flora...that's plants for you un-educated types.

That means dumb ass, that if you have no wildfires in California you have no native plant species anymore. Got it? I didn't think so.

Damn dude, do you just love playing with yourself? Do you set up 'straw-man' arguments deliberately or are you just too stupid to understand what everyone is talking about. Who ever said that there weren't supposed to be any wildfires? Try to keep up with the actual debate, little retard. The topic being discussed is the increase in the number and severity of wildfires in recent years as global warming dries out large parts of our country.

Wildfires
California Fire Science Consortium
July 27, 2012
(This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. You are free: to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work)

A Climate Central article about the 2011 fire season noted that "major wildfires require several factors to come together," and that wildfires are strongly influenced by regional climate conditions, which in turn are influenced by global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions:

As with most extreme weather and climate events, and their related impacts, major wildfires require several factors to come together in order [to] occur -- typically some combination of dry and windy weather, abundant and dry vegetation, and a spark, which can range from a carelessly tossed cigarette to a lightning strike.

Wildfires are a naturally occurring phenomenon closely tied to climate conditions, and as the world warms in response to rising amounts of greenhouse gases in the air, many studies show that wildfire frequency and severity will likely shift as well.

Historical variations in climate can explain much of the large year-to-year and decade-to-decade variations in Western US fire activity. Thus, climate change is already increasing wildfire activity in the Western US. This may seem surprising, given the number of other factors (including forest management practices) that are known to affect fire activity. [Climate Central, 6/21/11]​

Major Climate Report: "Wildfires in the United States Are Already Increasing Due To Warming". In a comprehensive report commissioned by the Bush administration and released in June 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program said earlier snowmelt and drying of soils and plants have worsened wildfires in Western states:

Wildfires in the United States are already increasing due to warming. In the West, there has been a nearly fourfold increase in large wildfires in recent decades, with greater fire frequency, longer fire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. This increase is strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt, which have caused drying of soils and vegetation. [U.S. Global Change Research Program, 6/16/09]​

The report included the following chart showing that the number of acres burned per fire has increased significantly since the 1980s:

A 2010 National Research Council report summarizing the state of climate science also stated that "the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months":

Large and long-duration forest fires have increased fourfold over the past 30 years in the American West; the length of the fire season has expanded by 2.5 months; and the size of wildfires has increased several-fold. Recent research indicates that earlier snowmelt, temperature changes, and drought associated with climate change are important contributors to this increase in forest fire. [National Research Council, 5/19/10]​

National Research Council: Warming Expected To Expand Area Burned By Wildfires In Western North America. In a 2010 report, the National Research Council said that "for warming levels of 1°C to 2°C, the area burned by wildfire in parts of western North America is expected to increase by 2 to 4 times for each degree (°C) of global warming." Particularly vulnerable areas "include the Pacific Northwest and forested regions of the Rockies and the Sierra," according to the report, which also included the following map showing projected increases in "area burned for a 1°C increase in global average temperature" relative to the median annual area burned from 1950-2003.

Warming Has Boosted Tree-Killing Beetles, Adding Fuel For Fires. A National Academies website notes that the warming trend has boosted the population of bark beetles that kill trees in western forests:

This increase in wildfire is a legacy of both a changing climate and decades of total fire suppression that has resulted in a buildup of dead fuels. One important factor is drought. Wintertime precipitation is increasingly falling as rain instead of snow, and the snow that does accumulate is melting earlier in the spring--decreasing the amount of water available in the late summer months and contributing to longer and more intense droughts. Compounding the effects of these droughts is the increased susceptibility of drought-stressed trees to attacking insects. In the last decade, a bark beetle epidemic has exploded across 18,000 square miles of western mountain forests. Milder winter temperatures kill fewer beetles in their budworm phase than the colder winters of the past, helping to increase the bark beetle population, with devastating effects. As the beetles kill vast areas of forest, they leave standing dead wood, fueling even larger wildfires. [National Academies, accessed 6/28/12]​

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)

Geee, I wonder why they don't compare the wildffire ratio from the last 50 years? Maybe because it would flatten that little ol graph right out. But once again that would be factual and you guys don't do facts...you do propaganda.

Or even the last decade -

Wildland Fires (2000 – 2009)
Year Fires Acres
2009 78,792 5,921,786
2008 78,979 5,292,468
2007 85,705 9,328,045
2006 96,385 9,873,745
2005 66,753 8,689,389
2004 65,461 *8,097,880
2003 63,629 3,960,842
2002 73,457 7,184,712
2001 84,079 3,570,911
2000 92,250 7,393,493

 

[RollingThunder]

EUGENE, Ore. -- The American West has seen a recent increase in large wildfires due to droughts, the build-up of combustible fuel, or biomass, in forests, a spread of fire-prone species and increased tree mortality from insects and heat. While grazing and fire suppression have kept incidents of wildfires unusually low for most of the last century, the amounts of combustible biomass, temperatures and drought are all rising.

How very cute. They minimise the buildup of fuel (mandated by environmentalists in many areas like here in Tahoe where they won't let homeowners clear the fallen trees) the invasive species like cheatgrass that are much more combustible than the native species, and the tree mortality that is due to insect infestation and instead blame most of the issue on warming that hasn't occurred in 16 years.

Yeah......I see......lots of "minimization" there all right, walleyed....LOLOLOLOLOL.....at least there is if you're either blind in one eye and can't see out of the other, or you're just so ignorant and brainwashed that you don't know which end is 'up'.....you are such a silly little retard.....

The denial of science by you clowns is astonishing.

Considering that the entire world scientific community is in a remarkable state of consensus on the reality of AGW, you must be talking to yourself and your denier cult butt-buddies again. I sure wish you douche-bags would get around to growing a brain sometime.

 

[depotoo]

and this -

Overall trends for nonresidential building fires for the 5-year-period of
2006 to 2010 show:
■ A 16% decrease in fires.
■ A 5% increase in deaths.
■ An 8% increase in injuries.
■ A 7% decrease in dollar loss. (Note: This overall constant dollar
loss trend takes inflation into account by adjusting each year’s
dollar loss to its equivalent 2010 value.)
http://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/nonres_bldg_fire_trends.pdf

 

[Old Rocks]

Tenacious U.S. Drought Worsens, To Last Through Winter | Climate Central

The drought may rival Hurricane Sandy as the most costly U.S. natural disaster of 2012, with damage estimates already ranging between $75 billion to $150 billion. Deutsche Bank Securities has predicted that the drought will be responsible for a 0.5 to 1 percent drop in U.S. gross domestic product this year, a significant drop considering the relatively slow pace of growth throughout the year.

The Drought Monitor shows that about 63 percent of the Lower 48 states are experiencing some form of drought conditions. That is down only slightly from the peak drought coverage of 65 percent on Sept. 25. The portion of the Lower 48 states experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions jumped to 42 percent during the past week, up from about 38 percent on Nov. 20.

 

[Old Rocks]

Balmy November Virtually Assures 2012 to Be Hottest Year | Climate Central

With just more than three weeks left in the year, it’s virtually certain that 2012 will displace 1998 as the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S. according to NOAA. The agency’s monthly State of the Climate Report, released on Thursday, shows that temperatures across the lower 48 states averaged 44.1°F for November -- 2.1°F higher than the 20th century average.

This means that while November, 2012, was only the 20th warmest November since modern record-keeping began (tied with 2004), it was still balmy enough to make the first 11 months of the year, from January through November, the warmest such period in NOAA’s record books.

 

[Old Rocks]

Now who should we trust on the matter of the beetle infestions in our forests? Walleyes, or the people that study forestry?

Insect Disturbance | Climate Change Resource Center (CCRC)

Since 1990, native bark beetles have killed millions of trees across millions of hectares of forest from Alaska to southern California. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several of the current outbreaks, occurring simultaneously across western North America, are the largest and most severe in recorded history.

Bark beetle outbreak dynamics are complex, and a variety of circumstances must coincide and thresholds must be surpassed for an outbreak to occur on a large scale. Moreover, large areas of suitable hosts are an essential requirement for a widescale outbreak. Although outbreak dynamics differ from species to species and from forest to forest, climate change is one factor that appears to be driving at least some of the current bark beetle outbreaks. Temperature influences everything in a bark beetle’s life, from the number of eggs laid by a single female beetle, to the beetles’ ability to disperse to new host trees, to individuals’ over-winter survival and developmental timing. Elevated temperatures associated with climate change, particularly when there are consecutive warm years, can speed up reproductive cycles and reduce cold-induced mortality. Shifts in precipitation patterns and associated drought can also influence bark beetle outbreak dynamics by weakening trees and making them more susceptible to bark beetle attacks.

There is considerable more information on the site concerning the beetle infestations.

 

[Old Rocks]

PLOS ONE: Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [~30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior.

So, in a warming climate, there is more beetle damage. More beetle damage creates a forest more susceptible to crown fires at lower winds speeds and higher moisture levels than a healthy forest.

 

[RollingThunder]

Poor Westy is so ignorant of the science, he doesn't even know that the warming causes the beetle outbreaks.

He also seems to think that it's practical to manually clear the brush from the entire western USA, and that only a dirty liberal plot has stopped such a teentsy little task from being accomplished.

And then he tops it off with a whackaloon claim of no warming, a claim so at odds with observed reality that you wonder if he could possibly be dumb enough to actually believe it.

I didn't make the claim little kitty. The UK's Met Office did.

No, little retard, the "UK's Met Office" did not say that, a denier cult reporter for the Daily Mail said that, and the UK Met Office immediately refuted him and pointed out that they did not say that at all. Even though this has been pointed out to you before a number of times including previously on this very thread, you continue to repeat your debunked denier cult myth like a clueless little retarded robot.

Here's what the Met Office actually 'says'....
"Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade."

And no, nimrod, heat doesn't increase beetle infestations.

Ridiculously wrong again, as usual, and I'm glad to see that you're not spoiling your perfect record by actually getting anything right. Keep it up and you could be a contender for the title of the world's dumbest human.

Discovery of pine beetles breeding twice in a year helps explain increasing damage, CU researchers say
University of Colorado at Boulder
March 14, 2012
(excerpts)
Long thought to produce only one generation of tree-killing offspring annually, some populations of mountain pine beetles now produce two generations per year, dramatically increasing the potential for the bugs to kill lodgepole and ponderosa pine trees, University of Colorado Boulder researchers have found. Because of the extra annual generation of beetles, there could be up to 60 times as many beetles attacking trees in any given year, their study found. And in response to warmer temperatures at high elevations, pine beetles also are better able to survive and attack trees that haven’t previously developed defenses. These are among the key findings of Jeffry Mitton, a CU-Boulder professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, and Scott Ferrenberg, a graduate student in that department. The study is being published this month in The American Naturalist. This exponential increase in the beetle population might help to explain the scope of the current beetle epidemic, which is the largest in history and extends from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in New Mexico to the Yukon Territory near Alaska. “This thing is immense,” Mitton said.

The duo’s research, conducted in 2009 and 2010 at CU’s Mountain Research Station, located about 25 miles west of Boulder, helps explain why. “We followed them through the summer, and we saw something that had never been seen before,” Mitton said. “Adults that were newly laid eggs two months before were going out and attacking trees” -- in the same year. Normally, mountain pine beetles spend a winter as larvae in trees before emerging as adults the following summer. These effects may be particularly pronounced at higher elevations, where warmer temperatures have facilitated beetle attacks. In the last two decades at the Mountain Research Station, mean annual temperatures were 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were in the previous two decades. Warmer temperatures gave the beetle larvae more spring days to grow to adulthood. The number of spring days above freezing temperatures increased by 15.1 in the last two decades, Mitton and Ferrenberg report. Also, the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow increased by 44 percent since 1970.

The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation, 1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly. “While our study is limited in area, it was completed in a site that was characterized as climatically unsuitable for (mountain pine beetle) development by the U.S. Forest Service only three decades ago,” they write. But in 25 years, the beetles have expanded their range 2,000 feet higher in elevation and 240 miles north in latitude in Canada, Mitton said.

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[percysunshine]

Not many people know this, but polar bears are the number one cause of forest fires. They find discarded plastic bic lighters, and go to town....

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Flood...AGW

Droughts...AGW

Fire...AGW

Ice melting....AGW

Record snowfall...AGW

 

[CrusaderFrank]

A 50 year data set and pine beetles vs a 420,000 year data set showing CO2 lagging temperature

 

[CrusaderFrank]

CO2 spawns bark beetles, is that like their favorite meal or do they thrive on droughts?

 

[RollingThunder]

Flood...AGW

Droughts...AGW

Fire...AGW

Ice melting....AGW

Record snowfall...AGW

Congratulations, CrazyFruitcake, after all this time, you've finally managed to make a post that is factually correct and not filled with moronic drivel. A definite first for you, but then it must be a fluke or an accident.