drought, usa

Flood...AGW

Droughts...AGW

Fire...AGW

Ice melting....AGW

Record snowfall...AGW
Congratulations, CrazyFruitcake, after all this time, you've finally managed to make a post that is factually correct and not filled with moronic drivel. A definite first for you, but then it must be a fluke or an accident.

I was mocking your "Science", clearly you didn't get the joke
 
PLOS ONE: Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [~30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior.

So, in a warming climate, there is more beetle damage. More beetle damage creates a forest more susceptible to crown fires at lower winds speeds and higher moisture levels than a healthy forest.





See UK Met Office report on no warming for last 16 years. You were saying?
 
Poor Westy is so ignorant of the science, he doesn't even know that the warming causes the beetle outbreaks.

He also seems to think that it's practical to manually clear the brush from the entire western USA, and that only a dirty liberal plot has stopped such a teentsy little task from being accomplished.

And then he tops it off with a whackaloon claim of no warming, a claim so at odds with observed reality that you wonder if he could possibly be dumb enough to actually believe it.
I didn't make the claim little kitty. The UK's Met Office did.
No, little retard, the "UK's Met Office" did not say that, a denier cult reporter for the Daily Mail said that, and the UK Met Office immediately refuted him and pointed out that they did not say that at all. Even though this has been pointed out to you before a number of times including previously on this very thread, you continue to repeat your debunked denier cult myth like a clueless little retarded robot.

Here's what the Met Office actually 'says'....
"Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade."
ranked_combined.png








And no, nimrod, heat doesn't increase beetle infestations.
Ridiculously wrong again, as usual, and I'm glad to see that you're not spoiling your perfect record by actually getting anything right. Keep it up and you could be a contender for the title of the world's dumbest human.

Discovery of pine beetles breeding twice in a year helps explain increasing damage, CU researchers say
University of Colorado at Boulder
March 14, 2012
(excerpts)
Long thought to produce only one generation of tree-killing offspring annually, some populations of mountain pine beetles now produce two generations per year, dramatically increasing the potential for the bugs to kill lodgepole and ponderosa pine trees, University of Colorado Boulder researchers have found. Because of the extra annual generation of beetles, there could be up to 60 times as many beetles attacking trees in any given year, their study found. And in response to warmer temperatures at high elevations, pine beetles also are better able to survive and attack trees that haven’t previously developed defenses. These are among the key findings of Jeffry Mitton, a CU-Boulder professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, and Scott Ferrenberg, a graduate student in that department. The study is being published this month in The American Naturalist. This exponential increase in the beetle population might help to explain the scope of the current beetle epidemic, which is the largest in history and extends from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in New Mexico to the Yukon Territory near Alaska. “This thing is immense,” Mitton said.

The duo’s research, conducted in 2009 and 2010 at CU’s Mountain Research Station, located about 25 miles west of Boulder, helps explain why. “We followed them through the summer, and we saw something that had never been seen before,” Mitton said. “Adults that were newly laid eggs two months before were going out and attacking trees” -- in the same year. Normally, mountain pine beetles spend a winter as larvae in trees before emerging as adults the following summer. These effects may be particularly pronounced at higher elevations, where warmer temperatures have facilitated beetle attacks. In the last two decades at the Mountain Research Station, mean annual temperatures were 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were in the previous two decades. Warmer temperatures gave the beetle larvae more spring days to grow to adulthood. The number of spring days above freezing temperatures increased by 15.1 in the last two decades, Mitton and Ferrenberg report. Also, the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow increased by 44 percent since 1970.

The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation, 1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly. “While our study is limited in area, it was completed in a site that was characterized as climatically unsuitable for (mountain pine beetle) development by the U.S. Forest Service only three decades ago,” they write. But in 25 years, the beetles have expanded their range 2,000 feet higher in elevation and 240 miles north in latitude in Canada, Mitton said.


© Regents of the University of Colorado

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)

See above Walleyes
 
Balmy November Virtually Assures 2012 to Be Hottest Year | Climate Central

With just more than three weeks left in the year, it’s virtually certain that 2012 will displace 1998 as the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S. according to NOAA. The agency’s monthly State of the Climate Report, released on Thursday, shows that temperatures across the lower 48 states averaged 44.1°F for November -- 2.1°F higher than the 20th century average.

This means that while November, 2012, was only the 20th warmest November since modern record-keeping began (tied with 2004), it was still balmy enough to make the first 11 months of the year, from January through November, the warmest such period in NOAA’s record books.

Warmest years on record in the contiguous United States;

1. 1998
2. 2006
3. 1934
4. 1999
5. 1921

If we do not get some extremely cold weather, it looks like 2012 will be #1, so out of the 6 warmest years in the contiguous US, 4 will have occurred in the last 14 years. That is a significant clustering.

Now how does that stack up to your claim of no warming in the last 16 years, Wallyeyes?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/jun/YTD_5warmest-t.png
 
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Balmy November Virtually Assures 2012 to Be Hottest Year | Climate Central

With just more than three weeks left in the year, it’s virtually certain that 2012 will displace 1998 as the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S. according to NOAA. The agency’s monthly State of the Climate Report, released on Thursday, shows that temperatures across the lower 48 states averaged 44.1°F for November -- 2.1°F higher than the 20th century average.

This means that while November, 2012, was only the 20th warmest November since modern record-keeping began (tied with 2004), it was still balmy enough to make the first 11 months of the year, from January through November, the warmest such period in NOAA’s record books.

Warmest years on record in the contiguous United States;

1. 1998
2. 2006
3. 1934
4. 1999
5. 1921

If we do not get some extremely cold weather, it looks like 2012 will be #1, so out of the 6 warmest years in the contiguous US, 4 will have occurred in the last 14 years. That is a significant clustering.

Now how does that stack up to your claim of no warming in the last 16 years, Wallyeyes?

Phil Jones said there's been no warming
 
Balmy November Virtually Assures 2012 to Be Hottest Year | Climate Central

With just more than three weeks left in the year, it’s virtually certain that 2012 will displace 1998 as the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S. according to NOAA. The agency’s monthly State of the Climate Report, released on Thursday, shows that temperatures across the lower 48 states averaged 44.1°F for November -- 2.1°F higher than the 20th century average.

This means that while November, 2012, was only the 20th warmest November since modern record-keeping began (tied with 2004), it was still balmy enough to make the first 11 months of the year, from January through November, the warmest such period in NOAA’s record books.

Warmest years on record in the contiguous United States;

1. 1998
2. 2006
3. 1934
4. 1999
5. 1921

If we do not get some extremely cold weather, it looks like 2012 will be #1, so out of the 6 warmest years in the contiguous US, 4 will have occurred in the last 14 years. That is a significant clustering.

Now how does that stack up to your claim of no warming in the last 16 years, Wallyeyes?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/jun/YTD_5warmest-t.png





Falsified data doesn't count. Interesting how 79 climatologists make the claim that 2006 was one of the hottest years "evah" when the UK Met Office says that there was no measurable warming during that year.

So, who's lying?
 
There was an Army Corpsman on the news talking about the Missississississippi problems, and he said the drought is just beginning.

The combination of an extreme drought in our bread basket, and the shutting down of our greatest highway of commerce, the Mississippi is a very serious proposition. Already they are planning dredging and blowing up obsticles in the river. But, if the drought continues, it simply won't be enough. And the first effects on shipping, by water levels, start in just 4 days.

Whether you blame AGW or not, this is a situation that we need to be as proactive as possible about. And, considering that the impediment to shipping a year and a half ago on the Mississippi was record floods, perhaps we had best listen a bit harder to the scientists that are warning us of inevitable weather extremes.
 
Flood...AGW

Droughts...AGW

Fire...AGW

Ice melting....AGW

Record snowfall...AGW
Congratulations, CrazyFruitcake, after all this time, you've finally managed to make a post that is factually correct and not filled with moronic drivel. A definite first for you, but then it must be a fluke or an accident.

I was mocking your "Science", clearly you didn't get the joke

The joke is actually on you, CrazyFruitcake, but, in true retardo fashion, you have no clue. All of the things you picked in your futile and extremely imbecilic attempt to try to 'mock' modern climate science are actually very real effects of anthropogenic global warming but you are too lost in your little denier cult fantasies and myths (and, of course, far too retarded) to comprehend that fact. All you were really mocking was your own ignorance and rank stupidity.
 
Balmy November Virtually Assures 2012 to Be Hottest Year | Climate Central

With just more than three weeks left in the year, it’s virtually certain that 2012 will displace 1998 as the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S. according to NOAA. The agency’s monthly State of the Climate Report, released on Thursday, shows that temperatures across the lower 48 states averaged 44.1°F for November -- 2.1°F higher than the 20th century average.

This means that while November, 2012, was only the 20th warmest November since modern record-keeping began (tied with 2004), it was still balmy enough to make the first 11 months of the year, from January through November, the warmest such period in NOAA’s record books.

Warmest years on record in the contiguous United States;

1. 1998
2. 2006
3. 1934
4. 1999
5. 1921

If we do not get some extremely cold weather, it looks like 2012 will be #1, so out of the 6 warmest years in the contiguous US, 4 will have occurred in the last 14 years. That is a significant clustering.

Now how does that stack up to your claim of no warming in the last 16 years, Wallyeyes?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/jun/YTD_5warmest-t.png
Falsified data doesn't count.
We know. That's why nobody pays any attention to the lying BS that you post.



Interesting how 79 climatologists make the claim that 2006 was one of the hottest years "evah"
Globally, 2006 was the sixth warmest year on record. In the United States, it was the warmest year on record, tied with 1998. So those climatologists were quite right - it was "one of the hottest years" since record keeping began over a century ago and probably for much longer.

NOAA REPORTS 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR U.S.
General Warming Trend, El Niño Contribute to Milder Winter Temps
NOAA

Jan. 9, 2007
The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Seven months in 2006 were much warmer than average, including December, which ended as the fourth warmest December since records began in 1895. After a cold start to December, the persistence of spring-like temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country during the final two to three weeks of 2006 made this the fourth warmest December on record in the U.S., and helped bring the annual average to record high levels. For example, the monthly average temperature in Boston was 8 degrees F above average, and in Minneapolis-St Paul, the temperature was 17 degrees F above average for the last three weeks of December. Even in Denver, which had its third snowiest December on record and endured a major blizzard that brought the city to a standstill during the holiday travel season, the temperature for the month was 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Five states had their warmest December on record (Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire) and no state was colder than average in December. U.S. and global annual temperatures are now approximately 1.0 degrees F warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated over the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s at a rate approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record.






when the UK Met Office says that there was no measurable warming during that year.
I'm always a bit curious why you always lie about factual stuff that can be so easily checked. I'm guessing it must be an artifact of your extreme state of retardation and confusion.

2006 warmest year on record, says Met Office
Financial Times
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent
December 14, 2006
(excerpts)
This year was the warmest on record in England, and the sixth warmest around the world, the Met Office said yesterday. July, with a mean temperature of 19.7°C, was the warmest month in England since 1659, when the central England temperature records began. The period from April to October was the warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 14.6°C. Professor Phil Jones, of the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, said: "This year sees the highest average temperature recorded since the Central England Temperature series began in 1659, and the rise above the average is significantly higher than for the [previous] two hottest years we have experienced."

David Parker, climate scientist at the Met Office, said the figures provided further supporting evidence that human behaviour was changing the climate. Around the world, the provisional figures for 2006, using data from January to November, show that this year was the sixth warmest on record. The worldwide temperature record goes back to 1850. The top 10 warmest years have all occurred in the last 12 years. Meteorologists said the year would have been warmer still but for a cool start owing to the effects of La Niña, a Pacific Ocean weather system related to El Niño. The changing weather is having a marked effect across the UK. Farmers and gardeners have noticed that spring is happening sooner, which can be a problem for some wildlife, as the hatching of insects and birds are usually closely synchronised, but there is evidence that this is changing as the weather warms.


© The Financial Times Ltd 2012

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)





So, who's lying?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.......well, as is obvious to everyone, you are lying, walleyed, as you do almost every time you post.




***
 
I am happy we are finally seeing some much needed rain in the mid-west today.

It is so strange that a few years ago there was so much rain that it busted every levy on the Mississippi River from Hannibal, Missouri to St. Louis Missouri. But now they have the largest drought in 50 years.
 
Last edited:
Warmest years on record in the contiguous United States;

1. 1998
2. 2006
3. 1934
4. 1999
5. 1921

If we do not get some extremely cold weather, it looks like 2012 will be #1, so out of the 6 warmest years in the contiguous US, 4 will have occurred in the last 14 years. That is a significant clustering.

Now how does that stack up to your claim of no warming in the last 16 years, Wallyeyes?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/jun/YTD_5warmest-t.png
Falsified data doesn't count.
We know. That's why nobody pays any attention to the lying BS that you post.




Globally, 2006 was the sixth warmest year on record. In the United States, it was the warmest year on record, tied with 1998. So those climatologists were quite right - it was "one of the hottest years" since record keeping began over a century ago and probably for much longer.

NOAA REPORTS 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR U.S.
General Warming Trend, El Niño Contribute to Milder Winter Temps
NOAA

Jan. 9, 2007
The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Seven months in 2006 were much warmer than average, including December, which ended as the fourth warmest December since records began in 1895. After a cold start to December, the persistence of spring-like temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country during the final two to three weeks of 2006 made this the fourth warmest December on record in the U.S., and helped bring the annual average to record high levels. For example, the monthly average temperature in Boston was 8 degrees F above average, and in Minneapolis-St Paul, the temperature was 17 degrees F above average for the last three weeks of December. Even in Denver, which had its third snowiest December on record and endured a major blizzard that brought the city to a standstill during the holiday travel season, the temperature for the month was 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Five states had their warmest December on record (Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire) and no state was colder than average in December. U.S. and global annual temperatures are now approximately 1.0 degrees F warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated over the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s at a rate approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record.






when the UK Met Office says that there was no measurable warming during that year.
I'm always a bit curious why you always lie about factual stuff that can be so easily checked. I'm guessing it must be an artifact of your extreme state of retardation and confusion.

2006 warmest year on record, says Met Office
Financial Times
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent
December 14, 2006
(excerpts)
This year was the warmest on record in England, and the sixth warmest around the world, the Met Office said yesterday. July, with a mean temperature of 19.7°C, was the warmest month in England since 1659, when the central England temperature records began. The period from April to October was the warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 14.6°C. Professor Phil Jones, of the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, said: "This year sees the highest average temperature recorded since the Central England Temperature series began in 1659, and the rise above the average is significantly higher than for the [previous] two hottest years we have experienced."

David Parker, climate scientist at the Met Office, said the figures provided further supporting evidence that human behaviour was changing the climate. Around the world, the provisional figures for 2006, using data from January to November, show that this year was the sixth warmest on record. The worldwide temperature record goes back to 1850. The top 10 warmest years have all occurred in the last 12 years. Meteorologists said the year would have been warmer still but for a cool start owing to the effects of La Niña, a Pacific Ocean weather system related to El Niño. The changing weather is having a marked effect across the UK. Farmers and gardeners have noticed that spring is happening sooner, which can be a problem for some wildlife, as the hatching of insects and birds are usually closely synchronised, but there is evidence that this is changing as the weather warms.


© The Financial Times Ltd 2012

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)





So, who's lying?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.......well, as is obvious to everyone, you are lying, walleyed, as you do almost every time you post.




***







Size of font doesn't make you correct silly person. But, as you seem to be blind as well as deaf I'll blow it up for you....

"The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years."



Read more: Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
 
I am happy we are finally seeing some much needed rain in the mid-west today.

It is so strange that a few years ago there was so much rain that it busted every levy on the Mississippi River from Hannibal, Missouri to St. Louis Missouri. But now they have the largest drought in 50 years.

Yeah, global warming.

Has to be

What else explains why the weather is so different all the time
 
Falsified data doesn't count.
We know. That's why nobody pays any attention to the lying BS that you post.




Interesting how 79 climatologists make the claim that 2006 was one of the hottest years "evah"
Globally, 2006 was the sixth warmest year on record. In the United States, it was the warmest year on record, tied with 1998. So those climatologists were quite right - it was "one of the hottest years" since record keeping began over a century ago and probably for much longer.

NOAA REPORTS 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR U.S.
General Warming Trend, El Niño Contribute to Milder Winter Temps
NOAA

Jan. 9, 2007
The 2006 average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Seven months in 2006 were much warmer than average, including December, which ended as the fourth warmest December since records began in 1895. After a cold start to December, the persistence of spring-like temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country during the final two to three weeks of 2006 made this the fourth warmest December on record in the U.S., and helped bring the annual average to record high levels. For example, the monthly average temperature in Boston was 8 degrees F above average, and in Minneapolis-St Paul, the temperature was 17 degrees F above average for the last three weeks of December. Even in Denver, which had its third snowiest December on record and endured a major blizzard that brought the city to a standstill during the holiday travel season, the temperature for the month was 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Five states had their warmest December on record (Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire) and no state was colder than average in December. U.S. and global annual temperatures are now approximately 1.0 degrees F warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated over the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s at a rate approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record.






when the UK Met Office says that there was no measurable warming during that year.
I'm always a bit curious why you always lie about factual stuff that can be so easily checked. I'm guessing it must be an artifact of your extreme state of retardation and confusion.

2006 warmest year on record, says Met Office
Financial Times
By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent
December 14, 2006
(excerpts)
This year was the warmest on record in England, and the sixth warmest around the world, the Met Office said yesterday. July, with a mean temperature of 19.7°C, was the warmest month in England since 1659, when the central England temperature records began. The period from April to October was the warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 14.6°C. Professor Phil Jones, of the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, said: "This year sees the highest average temperature recorded since the Central England Temperature series began in 1659, and the rise above the average is significantly higher than for the [previous] two hottest years we have experienced."

David Parker, climate scientist at the Met Office, said the figures provided further supporting evidence that human behaviour was changing the climate. Around the world, the provisional figures for 2006, using data from January to November, show that this year was the sixth warmest on record. The worldwide temperature record goes back to 1850. The top 10 warmest years have all occurred in the last 12 years. Meteorologists said the year would have been warmer still but for a cool start owing to the effects of La Niña, a Pacific Ocean weather system related to El Niño. The changing weather is having a marked effect across the UK. Farmers and gardeners have noticed that spring is happening sooner, which can be a problem for some wildlife, as the hatching of insects and birds are usually closely synchronised, but there is evidence that this is changing as the weather warms.


© The Financial Times Ltd 2012

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)





So, who's lying?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.......well, as is obvious to everyone, you are lying, walleyed, as you do almost every time you post.




***
Size of font doesn't make you correct silly person.
No, walleyedretard, size is just there for emphasis. It is the facts that make me correct.



But, as you seem to be blind as well as deaf I'll blow it up for you....
Actually it is you who appears to be blind and deaf as you cling like grim death to your debunked denier cult myths even after you've been shown the facts many times.

But now, since you do put on a convincing show of blindness, I will 'emphasize' the facts so that even you can see them.





"The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years."



Read more: Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online

Met Office in the Media: 14 October 2012
This is the official blog of the Met Office news team, intended to provide journalists and bloggers with the latest weather, climate science and business news and information from the Met Office.
(government publication/news release - free to reproduce)

An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’. It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one here.

To address some of the points in the article published today:

Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.

We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.

Secondly, Mr Rose says the Met Office made no comment about its decadal climate predictions. This is because he did not ask us to make a comment about them.

You can see our full response to all of the questions Mr Rose did ask us below:

Hi David,

Here’s a response to your questions. I’ve kept them as concise as possible but the issues you raise require considerable explanation.

Q.1 “First, please confirm that they do indeed reveal no warming trend since 1997.”

The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina) is about 0.03°C/decade, amounting to a temperature increase of 0.05°C over that period, but equally we could calculate the linear trend from 1999, during the subsequent La Nina, and show a more substantial warming.

As we’ve stressed before, choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system. If you use a longer period from HadCRUT4 the trend looks very different. For example, 1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade (or 0.15°C/decade in the NCDC dataset, 0.16°C/decade in GISS). Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade.

Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual.

———–

The below graph which shows years ranked in order of global temperature was not included in the response to Mr Rose, but is useful in this context as it illustrates the point made above that eight of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past decade.

ranked_combined.png
 
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