Will Trump lead a coalition to open the Hormuz Strait? (Poll)

[kyzr]

Ok. "Open with escort" means "open" if number of the cargo ships going through the strait is no less than 50% of the pre-war level.

ok. Bad idea posting personal info. But you do have a nice collection of books.

Of course, we are not exchanging cash. But reality is important. If you lose, you take real $10, come in a real bar or a store, buy real alcohol and give it to real people (who are neither your friends nor relatives), who really drink it, toasting Zavulon, and you download the video of the process here, making it publicly available. Do you agree? People learn better when the money they pay for the knowledge are real. One of the reasons why I prefer to buy real books, lose real money in bets and pay good money to teachers.

No. If you win I'll post a congratulations here in a new thread in Current Events, if I win you post one.

May be. But isn't it much better to have federal police to prevent massive and systematic violation of laws, rather than send Federal troops to kill local criminals and affiliated with them cops and National Guard?

I'm fine with Federal Marshals or ICE or the FBI or the National Guard verify MN voters on election day to ensure that only registered voters get to vote from approved voter rolls.

 

[Zavulon]

ok. Bad idea posting personal info. But you do have a nice collection of books.

Oh, it's just a little part. I've collected a little library at other place, including a lot of more or less open documents. And no, I don't post personal information. A regular guy like me or you (you are a regular guy, aren't you?) can't deanomise personality of his interlocutor, and serious services can do it anyway. We are just not interesting for them, because we don't do anything wrong. Do you?

No. If you win I'll post a congratulations here in a new thread in Current Events, if I win you post one.

Why "no"? Just curious. You may not show your face or speak in the video. If you are that obsessed with your anonymity - you can even ask somebody else to make this video. And, after all, don't you believe in your victory?
BTW, one American guy just made a bet of $118,000,000 on Polymarket, that Russian-Ukrainain war will end in 2026. Some people are so gullible....

I'm fine with Federal Marshals or ICE or the FBI or the National Guard verify MN voters on election day to ensure that only registered voters get to vote from approved voter rolls.

But they can't make their job well, if the local cops are creating obstacles.

 

[kyzr]

Oh, it's just a little part. I've collected a little library at other place, including a lot of more or less open documents. And no, I don't post personal information. A regular guy like me or you (you are a regular guy, aren't you?) can't deanomise personality of his interlocutor, and serious services can do it anyway. We are just not interesting for them, because we don't do anything wrong. Do you?

Nope.

Why "no"? Just curious. You may not show your face or speak in the video. If you are that obsessed with your anonymity - you can even ask somebody else to make this video. And, after all, don't you believe in your victory?
BTW, one American guy just made a bet of $118,000,000 on Polymarket, that Russian-Ukrainain war will end in 2026. Some people are so gullible....

You don't know what you don't know. Google or AI can figure out a lot more than you think they can.

But they can't make their job well, if the local cops are creating obstacles.

Local cops are not going to mess with Federal agents.

 

[Zavulon]

Nope.

So, what's a problem?

You don't know what you don't know. Google or AI can figure out a lot more than you think they can.

So what? Any smart special service can deanomise both me and you. But they are not interested in us. I mean, however totalitarian modern USA are, they can't punish you just for talking with an ordinary Russian guy.

Local cops are not going to mess with Federal agents.

But they did. Both in Minnesota and California. Didn't they?

 

[kyzr]

So what? Any smart special service can deanonymize both me and you. But they are not interested in us. I mean, however totalitarian modern USA are, they can't punish you just for talking with an ordinary Russian guy.

I have my reasons. Mostly its just good web practice.

Another $2 word from you...deanonymize. The translator misspells them, but once I fix the spelling your vocabulary is impressive.
"Deanonymize means to reverse the anonymization of data, making it possible to identify individuals from datasets that were intended to be anonymous."

But they did. Both in Minnesota and California. Didn't they?

No. They "stood down". Didn't help but didn't interfere.

 

[candycorn]

2-WEEK CEASEFIRE

HORMUZ IS NOW OPEN

Six weeks later, the strait remains closed and there is no coalition, no unconditional surrender, and no strategy for what to do next in Iran.

 

[SaxonJackson]

Will Britain form a willing coalition, including the US to militarily open the strait of Hormuz?​

Only if he can figure out how he will personally profit off of it. Remember ... he doesn't care about American's financial situation.

 

[kyzr]

Six weeks later, the strait remains closed and there is no coalition, no unconditional surrender, and no strategy for what to do next in Iran.

The strategy is continue the blockade, and if Iran remains intransigent, bomb them again.
Patience little grasshopper, wars take time.

 

[kyzr]

Will Britain form a willing coalition, including the US to militarily open the strait of Hormuz?​

Only if he can figure out how he will personally profit off of it. Remember ... he doesn't care about American's financial situation.

The EU is low on jet fuel, so "he" needs to figure something out.
Trump said the hike in gas prices is tolerable, stop whining, we don't want Iran to have nukes and ICBMs.

 

[candycorn]

The strategy is continue the blockade, and if Iran remains intransigent, bomb them again.
Patience little grasshopper, wars take time.

The bombing didn't work the first time. The way I know this is that your blob said it would be over in 2-3 weeks. We're now going on four months. So if that is the strategy; its a bad one.

Face it; your blob and Kegsbreath have no idea what they're doing.

 

[SaxonJackson]

The EU is low on jet fuel, so "he" needs to figure something out.
Trump said the hike in gas prices is tolerable, stop whining, we don't want Iran to have nukes and ICBMs.

Trump said. Trump said. Trump said. Trump said.

Listen to yourself.

 

[kyzr]

The bombing didn't work the first time. The way I know this is that your blob said it would be over in 2-3 weeks. We're now going on four months. So if that is the strategy; its a bad one. Face it; your blob and Kegsbreath have no idea what they're doing.

The war takes as long as it takes to prevent Iran from developing nukes and ICBMs.
The blockade is financially hurting Iran, and if Trump orders more bombing, Iran will be even more devastated.
Iran needs to "drink from the poison chalice" again...

 

[kyzr]

Trump said. Trump said. Trump said. Trump said.
Listen to yourself.

Oh stop whining. Trump is still a billion times better than senile Biden was or stupid Kamala would have been.

 

[luiza]

Oh stop whining. Trump is still a billion times better than senile Biden was or stupid Kamala would have been.

But Trumpfy looks like a youngster when facing the Cheeky Ones .
Humiliated and ridiculed .
They have an excellent negotiating technique based on the , Up Yours , principle .

 

[Lockback]

But Trumpfy looks like a youngster when facing the Cheeky Ones .
Humiliated and ridiculed .
They have an excellent negotiating technique based on the , Up Yours , principle .

Well, look who dropped by; the inarticulate fake posh Brit.

 

[SaxonJackson]

Oh stop whining. Trump is still a billion times better than senile Biden was or stupid Kamala would have been.

Smarter, perhaps but a LOT more dangerous. He's done more to usher in the Globalist agenda that the last 4 Presidents, combined.

 

[kyzr]

Smarter, perhaps but a LOT more dangerous. He's done more to usher in the Globalist agenda that the last 4 Presidents, combined.

Lets say for argument's sake that Trump "accomplished" 100 things through his initiative and Executive Orders.
I don't agree with all of those.
I strongly oppose 500,000 Chinese college students, allowing China to buy US farmland, especially near US military bases, and allowing China to invest a $trillion in the US including building factories here. I just don't trust them.

But I strongly support the other 97 accomplishments.

I oppose the $1.8b compensation for J6 rioters, but some guys should get compensated for mistreatment.

Furious Judge Finds Jail Officials in Contempt for ‘Abuse’ of Jan. 6 Prisoners

“It’s more than just inept and bureaucratic shuffling of papers,” Judge Royce C. Lamberth fumed during a hearing about medical delays. “Does no one care? Does no one follow up?”

www.thedailybeast.com

So what 'globalist agenda' items do you object to?
I also oppose globalism, which moved US factories to China, Trump is getting factories built here.
Trump is getting plants built here, and democrats whine it won't be the full $17T. Ridiculous complaint, look at the positive.

Trump says the US has secured $17 trillion in new investments. The real number is likely much less

President Donald Trump claims his policies have generated $17 trillion in new investments, but the real number is likely much less.

apnews.com

 

[Alex_northern_germany]

The strategy is continue the blockade, and if Iran remains intransigent, bomb them again.
Patience little grasshopper, wars take time.

This is exactly the problem I see.

At first it was supposed to be quick. Then Hormuz was supposedly open. Now, six weeks later, the answer is: continue the blockade and bomb again if Iran does not comply.

That may be pressure, but it is not yet a complete strategy.

A real strategy would have to answer:
What if Iran does not break?
What if Hormuz stays unreliable?
What if allies are not willing to risk ships and sailors for a crisis they were not seriously involved in planning?
What is the political end state?

You cannot act alone, insult allies, and then expect them to carry the risk when the bill arrives.

I am not defending Iran. I do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But “keep bombing until they give up” is not a strategy unless there is a realistic answer to what happens if they do not give up.

 

[toobfreak]

The strategy is continue the blockade, and if Iran remains intransigent, bomb them again.
Patience little grasshopper, wars take time.

The funny part is that one country (the UAE?) is already halfway complete with building a pipeline that bypasses the Strait entirely and takes Iran completely out of the picture.

The end result of Iran's war with the world (their customers) is that everyone will ultimately bypass Iran, take them out of the picture altogether, embargo anyone from buying Iranian product, cripple them for life, then for the final insult, tunnel under Iran in from the side and steal all their oil and pump it out too.

 

[kyzr]

This is exactly the problem I see.
At first it was supposed to be quick. Then Hormuz was supposedly open. Now, six weeks later, the answer is: continue the blockade and bomb again if Iran does not comply. That may be pressure, but it is not yet a complete strategy.

A real strategy would have to answer:
What if Iran does not break?

"Mow the grass option". Bomb them again periodically. To dissuade their nuclear ambitions.
But the US blockade has to work eventually, no country can survive with no revenue

What if Hormuz stays unreliable?

If Hormuz stays closed, the countries that need it open need to provide escorts to open it.

What if allies are not willing to risk ships and sailors for a crisis they were not seriously involved in planning?

That is their choice, the US is unaffected by the Hormuz closure.

What is the political end state?

Regime change looks unlikely with the brutal IRGC hanging dissidents.

You cannot act alone, insult allies, and then expect them to carry the risk when the bill arrives.

The "allies" made the failed JCPOA, a diplomatic attempt at keeping Iran from getting nukes that Iran promptly cheated on and enriched uranium anyway. Trump's military solution is a much stronger deterrent, but none of the "allies" want to help enforce the nuclear ban. Signing a paper is easy, enforcing it is difficult.

I am not defending Iran. I do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But “keep bombing until they give up” is not a strategy unless there is a realistic answer to what happens if they do not give up.

If Iran can't sell oil due to the US blockade their wells lose capacity, their economy collapses.
Collapsing Iran's oil economy, and destroying their military capability is a strategy.
Opening Hormuz with international escorts would be helpful as well.