Why the war in Ukraine is important to the West (long post)

[Silver Cat]

That may be true, but it also means Ukraine would most likely already be under Putin's thumb, another Belarus...

But Obama's guy in 2014 was Poroshenko, and Zelensky defeated him in 2019. As far as I am concerned the Ukrainian people have spoken.

You see, other Russia's neighbours (like Georgia) watch on Ukraine, watch of Belarus, and they don't ask "Should we ask Americans to defend us? " They ask "What can we do to don't allow Americans to defend us? "

 

[Kruska]

As you know, there was no Budapest Agreement in place since 2014 when President Barack Obama stood aside and allowed President Putin to invade and occupy Crimea.

The Budapest Agreement is still in place - Obama instituted sanctions towards Russia, and Trump AFAIK didn't do anything on top of that.

Now try to answer the questions posed by Tucker Carlson.

It was a democratic US president that signed the security guarantees for Ukraine in 1994 - therefore clearly making Ukraine a national strategic US interest.
No other US president or US government ever reneged onto that 1994 treaty.
There is now a democratic president in the USA that needs to fulfill that obligation towards Ukraine - since Ukraine is of vital interest towards US expansion since 1994.

If it wouldn't be of vital interest, then why is the USA willing to spiral this situation right up to a nuclear confrontation via insisting of Ukraine becoming a NATO member?

And if the US government would renege onto a security assurance - then countries like the Philippines or the government of Taiwan would give the USA their middle-finger.
So you bet that it is of vital national strategic interest to the USA - therefore it is a totally brainless question.

 

[Markle]

The Budapest Agreement is still in place - Obama instituted sanctions towards Russia, and Trump AFAIK didn't do anything on top of that.

It was a democratic US president that signed the security guarantees for Ukraine in 1994 - therefore clearly making Ukraine a national strategic US interest.
No other US president or US government ever reneged onto that 1994 treaty.
There is now a democratic president in the USA that needs to fulfill that obligation towards Ukraine - since Ukraine is of vital interest towards US expansion since 1994.

If it wouldn't be of vital interest, then why is the USA willing to spiral this situation right up to a nuclear confrontation via insisting of Ukraine becoming a NATO member?

And if the US government would renege onto a security assurance - then countries like the Philippines or the government of Taiwan would give the USA their middle-finger.
So you bet that it is of vital national strategic interest to the USA - therefore it is a totally brainless question.

President Putin declared the Budapest Agreement null and void. Gone, finished, caput. Where did President Putin respond to the Obama sanctions saying okay, I give, the agreement is back in place.

Sorry friend, there is no agreement any longer.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It wasn't a coup, it was a color revolution. It was organized by the Ukraine desk at State- Vindmann, Nuland, Marie Yovanovitch, et al. With support from Sleepy Joe who was in charge of the Ukraine file.

Obama's State Dept. was doing this all over the world- I didn't think that was a mystery to anyone. They would bring activists from those countries to the US and train them in conducting demonstrations and organizing through social media. The architect of the modern color revolution is a guy by the name of Norm Eisen, who wrote the manual on color revolutions called "The Democracy Playbook". It's a follow-on to Gene Sharp's From "Dictatorship to Democracy".

Eisen was also the lead council in the first Trump impeachment, where they were more than happy to throw Zelensky under the bus.

And btw, they ran the same playbook right here at home in 2020.

None of that excuses Putin's invasion, and I support Ukraine not because I support color revolutions, but because I support the right of self-determination for the Ukrainian people.

I have seen this theory before, but the only evidence I've seen in support of it is a telephone conversation between Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine about the pros and cons of various Ukrainian leaders from the US perspective.

If you said the US was sympathetic to the protests, well, so was I. If you said the US may have had fore knowledge of the protests, may have been acquainted with the leaders and may even have discussed the events with them, I wouldn't be surprised, but to say the US organized the protests suggests that the protests and he political changes they brought about were not the result of Ukrainian passions about sovereignty, independence from Russia or Ukraine's connection to Europe, but the result of American machinations to dupe Ukrainians into joining America's power struggle against Russia, which is the Russian position and I don't believe it.

Color revolution is a media term. There was no revolution in Ukraine in 2014. When Trump was elected President, he promised great changes in US policies, but was that a revolution? No, it was just an important political event. When Biden was elected President, he promised great changes in US policies and there was a wave of hysteria in some sectors of the population and passionate protests and demonstrations, but was that a revolution? No, just an important political event.

In Ukraine in 2014, the government was not overthrown. The Constitution was not torn up. The parliament was not closed. Government offices continued to function as they had before. What happened was protests against the sitting president's staunchly pro Russian policies were so widespread and so passionate that it became clear the sitting president could no longer govern effectively and he agreed to early elections, as provided in the Ukrainian Constitution, and then abruptly left the country for Russia and was impeached and Ukraine went about setting up new elections as provided for in the Constitution.

So was that a revolution? If you are a Russian, Russian control of the Ukrainian government was abruptly ended, so it was a revolution, but if you are not a Russian, the Ukrainian government was not overthrown, so it was a very important political event but since every step of it was in compliance with the Ukrainian Constitution, it was not a revolution.

Revolutions sell newspapers and books; important political events don't.

 

[Kruska]

President Putin declared the Budapest Agreement null and void. Gone, finished, caput. Where did President Putin respond to the Obama sanctions saying okay, I give, the agreement is back in place.

Sorry friend, there is no agreement any longer.

No mate you are wrong - there were/are three guarantors, the UK, USA and Russia. just because Putin declares it null and void has no say towards the UK's and the USA's treaty obligations. Until today US government lawmakers and their legal assistants are wiggling out their way in regards to defining "assurance" and "guarantor" towards the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Just because e.g. England would have reneged on it's guarantees towards Poland - would not automatically behold France being out of it's obligation towards Poland, or vice versa. Or the individual guarantees being null and void due to one party declaring it's own commitment as null and void.

For example, with the Budapest Memorandum, Braun explained that the U.S. and U.K. only have to take the security action they deem necessary. Theoretically, he said this means the countries could send ambulances to aid Ukraine, as it is up to the U.S. and U.K. to decide on the interpretation of the assurances in the memorandum.
As you can see the Budapest memorandum is still in place - interesting read:

What is the Budapest Memorandum and how does it impact the current crisis in Ukraine?

In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for security assurances from Western countries that its sovereignty will be respected from Russian threat. CTVNews.ca looks at the Budapest Memorandum and its impact on the current crisis in Ukraine.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[zaangalewa]

That's a brave attempt at the English language. Putin offered peace with the Ukraine becoming a neutral country. ...

Putin started this criminal war so Putin has not to make any "offers" = "coercions". The Ukraine is a souvereign state who can do whatever the Ukrainians like to be done. Russia has to give the Ukraine not any orders what to do and what not to do. Putin has first of all to to stop this stupid, senseless and criminal war and to bring all Russian soldiers and also all private armies of mercennaries home to Russia. And afterwards Russia has not only to speak with the Ukraine about an everlasting peace between both nations. It has also to speak with the whole world about a future "modus vivendi" of Russia at all. Russia is meanwhile a threat for the survival of everyone who lives on our planet - including all Russians.

 

[zaangalewa]

... The problem, as I see it, is that China is meeting with Russia today. That's an alliance made in Hell. Iran is selling weapons to Russia.

Astonishing that Europe, South-America and many many others are not in this absurde "alliance made in Hell" which is a also a result of the unbelievable stupid politics of the USA who knows always only enemies and always only new wars but never true allies and real peace. Do you know what to fight for? You are the worst judge of other characters and judge of other nations who ever had existed on this planet. Nevertheless is "Russia" the threat for the survival of all mankind now. No one except exclusivelly only Russia is responsible. It exist about 150 million Russians - what are less than 2% of all human beings. And if I calculate that about 5% of all Russains are directly responsible for this disaster now = less than 0,1% - less than one man per thousand others - causes all this damned superbullshit.

 

[Markle]

No mate you are wrong - there were/are three guarantors, the UK, USA and Russia. just because Putin declares it null and void has no say towards the UK's and the USA's treaty obligations. Until today US government lawmakers and their legal assistants are wiggling out their way in regards to defining "assurance" and "guarantor" towards the sovereignty of Ukraine.

IF the Budapest accord was in effect, why did President Obama sit back and allow President Putin to invade and annex Crimea? How is there any other interpretation than the accord was null and void, as Putin had said?

 

[Kruska]

IF the Budapest accord was in effect, why did President Obama sit back and allow President Putin to invade and annex Crimea? How is there any other interpretation than the accord was null and void, as Putin had said?

He did not sit back entirely - he instituted sanctions towards Russia and got a hundred nations or so to follow up. Furthermore he increased arms supplies and intensified training
towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces via NATO.
Since Putin violated the accord via attacking/annexing Crimea - off course the memorandum to him is null and void.

It was not a bilateral treaty or bilateral memorandum between two parties, such as START which Trump declared null and void, via not extending it with Russia.

 

[Markle]

He did not sit back entirely - he instituted sanctions towards Russia and got a hundred nations or so to follow up. Furthermore he increased arms supplies and intensified training
towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces via NATO.
Since Putin violated the accord via attacking/annexing Crimea - off course the memorandum to him is null and void.

It was not a bilateral treaty or bilateral memorandum between two parties, such as START which Trump declared null and void, via not extending it with Russia.

Did Russia leave Crimea?

Did anyone invade another country during the Trump administration? Did Trump start any wars? President Trump quickly cleared out the ISIS Caliphate President Obama had allowed expansion in Iraq.

 

[Kruska]

Did Russia leave Crimea?

Obviously not

Did anyone invade another country during the Trump administration?

Define "invade" - e.g. during the Obama and Trump administration, Putin had send Russian troops and military equipment into a sovereign country (Ukraine) to actively support Ukrainian separatists.
Imagine the Mexican government, deploying troops and equipment to actively support Hispanic separatists in Texas.

Did Trump start any wars? President Trump quickly cleared out the ISIS Caliphate President Obama had allowed expansion in Iraq.

What does all this have to do with the Budapest memorandum? or the USA's national strategic interest towards Ukraine?

 

[Markle]

Obviously not

Define "invade" - e.g. during the Obama and Trump administration, Putin had send Russian troops and military equipment into a sovereign country (Ukraine) to actively support Ukrainian separatists.
Imagine the Mexican government, deploying troops and equipment to actively support Hispanic separatists in Texas.

What does all this have to do with the Budapest memorandum? or the USA's national strategic interest towards Ukraine?

I did not ask anything about the Obama administration other than to state the obvious. President Obama stood aside and allowed President Putin to annex Crimea. Please show your source and working link showing President Putin moving troops into Ukraine during the TRUMP administration and occupying that country.

 

[Kruska]

I did not ask anything about the Obama administration other than to state the obvious. President Obama stood aside and allowed President Putin to annex Crimea. Please show your source and working link showing President Putin moving troops into Ukraine during the TRUMP administration and occupying that country.

No Obama did not stand aside - he imposed embargoes onto Russia and increased weapon supplies and military training of the UAF.

Trump upheld Obama's actions - but did nothing about the immense increase of Russian troops in Ukraine during his tenure as President of the USA.

Obviously you are convinced that the Donbas and Luhansk occupied territories incl. the Crimea belong to Russia. Well they do not, they are Ukrainian sovereign territory who's illegal annexation by Russia, or the self-deceleration of independent States aka Donbas and Luhansk were never admitted, validated by the UN and also not by the USA under Trump.

Report - excerpt, from Jan-April 2020 from Ukrainian MoD to NATO and the OSCE;

Setting up of a group of Russian occupation forces in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts composed of the 1st (Donetsk) and 2nd (Luhansk) Army Corps (AC) lead to a large increase in the numbers of armaments and military hardware in eastern Ukraine.

The combat structure of the 1st AC includes:

• 5 brigades (1, 3, 5th Motorized Rifle Brigades, 100th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Republican Guard and an Artillery Brigade);
• 3 regiments (11th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 9th Assault Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Marines and a Headquarters Regiment);
• 10 battalions.

The combat structure of the 2nd AC includes:

• 4 brigades (2, 4, 7th Motorized Rifle Brigades and an Artillery Brigade);
• 2 regiments (6th Motorized Rifle Regiment and a Headquarters Regiment);
• 6 battalions.

This does not include the approximately 35,000 Russian troops stationed in Crimea.

According to the Vienna Document data from Russia, as of January 1, 2020, there were 684 items of armament and military hardware in Crimea, and this is 453 more than January 1, 2014. In particular, after the occupation of the peninsula, Russia transferred 31 battle tanks, about 200 armored fighting vehicles, almost 100 artillery systems, as well as 63 combat aircraft and 34 combat helicopters.

I am not interested to continue a further discussion with you - so this is my last reply to you in this matter.
Next you will ask for sources documenting that US troops actually invaded sovereign Iraq in 2003. - Have a nice day.

 

[zaangalewa]

... Did Trump start any wars? ...

He started many wars. For example a war against the NATO, a war on GB and the EU and a war on Germany. In general: Also his economical wars have a very strong tendence to become real wars. In the end Donald Trump never did do anything else than to fight for a weak USA but for a strong Trumperica against the rest of the whole world including more than 50% of the USA. The more national risk the more global money might had been the childish calculation of this friend of Putin and friend of many other autocrats in the world. I still think this traitor of the values of the western world will be imprisoned one day because of high treason. Or because of 4 years clownery in the oval office.

 

[zaangalewa]

... allow President Putin to invade and annex Crimea? ...

First of all asks Putin no one for allowness. But indeed had been the Crimea a very strange situation for Russia - because it had been a poisoned - and illegal - present from the Soviet Krushchev to the Ukraine - while Putin created on his own with combatants from Russia in the Donbass region a very strange situation for the Ukraine. But the Ukraine on herselve had nothing to do with the partially intentionally created escalation of all this problems.

The poison in the present Crimea had been the Russian black sea fleet - the Crimea is their home harbor. And if not all politicians in the world knew since decades that this will lead to a problem then I suggest for the future to let make every politician a screening test before to overtake a job in politics.

 

[luiza]

AI Program? No information but desinformation while using the English language?

Thanks , but we had worked out that you were either a low grade half wit or a sorry self appointed German representative . Or both .

Schweinescheisse , as we say . My mother being Deutsche .

 

[zaangalewa]

Thanks , but we had worked out that you were either a low grade half wit or a sorry self appointed German representative . Or both .

Who is "we"? And who cares about what "we" likes to define about a rectangle of light with scribels?

Schweinescheisse , as we say . My mother being Deutsche .

Perhaps she says so as a funny - but in Germany not used - alternative to the English expression "bullshit". Are you really sure that you are not an AI program?

 

[Markle]

He started many wars. For example a war against the NATO, a war on GB and the EU and a war on Germany. In general: Also his economical wars have a very strong tendence to become real wars. In the end Donald Trump never did do anything else than to fight for a weak USA but for a strong Trumperica against the rest of the whole world including more than 50% of the USA. The more national risk the more global money might had been the childish calculation of this friend of Putin and friend of many other autocrats in the world. I still think this traitor of the values of the western world will be imprisoned one day because of high treason. Or because of 4 years clownery in the oval office.

Yeah, terrible President Trump forced members of NATO to cough up and honor their financial obligations to the organization for the first time. MEAN MAN!

As for the economy.
"Yet, during the first three years of the Trump presidency, wage growth was off the charts, especially for low-income workers and African Americans. The third-quarter economic data released Thursday confirm once again that Trump is on the job for U.S. workers."

Under Trump, Americans Have Seen Their Best Wage Growth In 40 Years

More than any other president in 40 years, Donald Trump has benefited working-class Americans, especially African Americans.

thefederalist.com

###

President Trump kept Putin from any invasions and kept Putin from aligning with Communist China.

How's President Biden handling that situation?

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping Meet​

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping Meet

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi connect in India.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[toomuchtime_]

Yeah, terrible President Trump forced members of NATO to cough up and honor their financial obligations to the organization for the first time. MEAN MAN!

As for the economy.
"Yet, during the first three years of the Trump presidency, wage growth was off the charts, especially for low-income workers and African Americans. The third-quarter economic data released Thursday confirm once again that Trump is on the job for U.S. workers."

Under Trump, Americans Have Seen Their Best Wage Growth In 40 Years

More than any other president in 40 years, Donald Trump has benefited working-class Americans, especially African Americans.

thefederalist.com

###

President Trump kept Putin from any invasions and kept Putin from aligning with Communist China.

How's President Biden handling that situation?

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping Meet​

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping Meet

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi connect in India.

foreignpolicy.com

In 2014, three Allies spent 2% of GDP or more on defence; this increased to seven Allies in 2022. Moreover, 2022 is the eighth consecutive year of rising defence spending across European Allies and Canada, amounting to a rise of 2.2% in real terms compared to 2021.

Funding NATO

NATO is resourced through the direct and indirect contributions of its members. NATO’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes, which equate to only 0.3% of total Allied defence spending (around EUR 3.27 billion for 2023). These funds enable NATO to...

www.nato.int

So the increase in defense spending among NATO allies began in 2014, after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and two years before Trump took office, and by 2022, only 7 NATO were spending 2% of GDP on defense, so it is not clear Trump's threats to NATO had any effect on defense spending among members.

It is not clear anything Trump did or said kept Putin from invading Ukraine while Trump was in office, but it could be argued that when Trump demanded Zelensky dig up dirt of Baiden that could be used against him in the 2020 election and Zelensky demurred, and Trump became so enraged he tried to stop a $400 million aid package to Ukraine in 2019, that Putin believed relations between the US and Ukraine were so bad, the US would not object if Putin invaded Ukraine, making Trump at least partially responsible for the war. Biden's refusal to get tough with Iran may also have been a contributing factor, but Putin recently said that he didn't invade Ukraine in 2014 because he didn't believe Russia was ready for that war in 2014 and it took him eight years to delude himself into thinking Russia was ready for the war in 2022. So what's the truth? Did Trump's hissy fit about Zelensky not colluding with him to defeat Biden start the ball rolling toward the 2022 invasion?

 

[Markle]

In 2014, three Allies spent 2% of GDP or more on defence; this increased to seven Allies in 2022. Moreover, 2022 is the eighth consecutive year of rising defence spending across European Allies and Canada, amounting to a rise of 2.2% in real terms compared to 2021.

Funding NATO

NATO is resourced through the direct and indirect contributions of its members. NATO’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes, which equate to only 0.3% of total Allied defence spending (around EUR 3.27 billion for 2023). These funds enable NATO to...

www.nato.int

So the increase in defense spending among NATO allies began in 2014, after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and two years before Trump took office, and by 2022, only 7 NATO were spending 2% of GDP on defense, so it is not clear Trump's threats to NATO had any effect on defense spending among members.

It is not clear anything Trump did or said kept Putin from invading Ukraine while Trump was in office, but it could be argued that when Trump demanded Zelensky dig up dirt of Baiden that could be used against him in the 2020 election and Zelensky demurred, and Trump became so enraged he tried to stop a $400 million aid package to Ukraine in 2019, that Putin believed relations between the US and Ukraine were so bad, the US would not object if Putin invaded Ukraine, making Trump at least partially responsible for the war. Biden's refusal to get tough with Iran may also have been a contributing factor, but Putin recently said that he didn't invade Ukraine in 2014 because he didn't believe Russia was ready for that war in 2014 and it took him eight years to delude himself into thinking Russia was ready for the war in 2022. So what's the truth? Did Trump's hissy fit about Zelensky not colluding with him to defeat Biden start the ball rolling toward the 2022 invasion?The bottom line, NATO members hated Trump for forcing them to pay their agreed dues,

The bottom line, Putin took Crimea during the Obama-Biden administration. Putin took nothing during the Trump administration nor did Putin align with Communist China. Nor was Iran selling arms to Putin.

Whine all you want, some day maybe you'll face facts.