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If they have to go into Kherson the city will be destroyed, I think they would prefer the RF to withdraw. The west bank is untenable- the only supply route is the dam bridge, or the pontoon ferries that can't move any significant materiel. Both easily targeted, and definitely not enough capacity to support 20K+ combat forces.As a whole, the situation there doesn't look like as if some major offensive operation is being prepared there from Ukrainian part. You don't keep talking about that for two months and allow your enemy to enlarge reserves there and engineer defence positions.
All that is more about spreading Russian troops along the frontline and drawing part of them from the Donbas region.
If they have to go into Kherson the city will be destroyed, I think they would prefer the RF to withdraw. The west bank is untenable- the only supply route is the dam bridge, or the pontoon ferries that can't move any significant materiel. Both easily targeted, and definitely not enough capacity to support 20K+ combat forces.
Russia can send reinforcements from the Donbas to try to hold Kherson, but it means no offensives in the Donbas.
Plus, they are completely spent in terms of combat effectiveness.
Ukraine is doing it right- fight the asymmetrical war, not the head-on artillery war Russia wants to fight.
If you're the Russian soldier on the front line, and you hear the ammunition and supplies you have been waiting for were destroyed 40km behind you, and the command post was hit, and your senior officers are all dead- well, that does wonders for morale, lol.
Ukraine knows the rail network inside-out. Those reinforcements have a very short shelf life...
I think they've been trying to take Pisky to flank the Ukrainian defenses at Avdiivka. They've only been trying to take that ground for 8 years. There's no one there (Pisky), the village was destroyed back in 2015 or something like that. Supposedly it had 18 residents in 2015. Marinka has been under constant shelling from Donetsk City since the invasion began, if not earlier.Yes, Ukraine isn't going to storm the city even if the counter-offensive begins. Cutting off the Russian garrison there and targeting their main spots seems to be the plan.
The Russians draw their troops there from the Donbas and elsewhere to strengthen their positions. But Ukraine is doing the same. And some claim this caused Ukrainian retreat from Pesky and partially Marinka. They were left virtually without artillery support.
Well the second largest army in the world has taken over the rubble of an unoccupied village after 6 months of trying, so I guess that perks them up. The fact that they are optimistic over such a trivial gain says a lot. They haven't had much to celebrate since Lysychansk, and that was a Pyrrhic victory.Overall, Russian milbloggers are seemed to be quite optimistic about the current situation.
Pisky, Marinka and Avdiivka are not important as settlements. But around these settlements, Ukraine's line of defence runs. Or, more correctly, lines. Heavily fortified, they served for years as deterrence from Russian expansion westward from Donetsk city.I think they've been trying to take Pisky to flank the Ukrainian defenses at Avdiivka. They've only been trying to take that ground for 8 years. There's no one there (Pisky), the village was destroyed back in 2015 or something like that. Supposedly it had 18 residents in 2015. Marinka has been under constant shelling from Donetsk City since the invasion began, if not earlier.
The UA is correct to not fight that head-on artillery war right there. That would be playing into the only strength Russia has in Ukraine. It's better to back off from the artillery, and go after the logistics where Russia is weak.
This grouping in the east is virtually the entire remaining offensive capability of Russian ground forces- about 60 BTG's, and there are a lot of places to hide supplies in Donetsk City, so it's harder to break down the Ru logistics there. Dispersed supply depots takes more trucks, so the trucks should be the focus. That's a job for the kamikaze drones...
The ground is inconsequential- taking Pisky or even Avdiivka does not win them Bakhmut or Sloviansk or Kramatorsk, which is what they have to take to say they have all of Donetsk Oblast. And that does not look any more likely today than it did last week, or the week before, or the week before that.
Well the second largest army in the world has taken over the rubble of an unoccupied village after 6 months of trying, so I guess that perks them up. The fact that they are optimistic over such a trivial gain says a lot. They haven't had much to celebrate since Lysychansk, and that was a Pyrrhic victory.
I think they need to take their minds off of Kherson, which is getting increasingly desperate for the Ru side. So act like Plisky is a big win, but really it's a non-event in the overall picture.
I would like to see the UA fix the 49th CAA in Kherson, then make the real offensive from Zap to Melitopol and split the Russian forces. There are at least two brand new UA tank brigades formed up with trained reserves, and at least ten tracked GMRLS launchers and 16 HIMARS now in Ukraine. Let the Russian propagandists say what they like- the Ru forces are stalled out, and Ukraine just gets stronger every day.
I saw a captured Russian T-72 the other day that had parade markings on it. That's yet another indication they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for functional armor, because those are really just show tanks.
