UK: 97% of Moscow army is in Ukraine

[beagle9]

I also see that from a practical standpoint. Year ago, the Putin regime expected a blitz. When in a matter of weeks he would have accomplished 'a Crimean scenario' over most of Ukraine with almost no resistance from Ukrainian part. It failed. That also showed how inept Russian military leadership is and what awful shape Russian army has. They are not interested in a long hot war. And not prepared for it, at least now.

On the other hand, the West realizes that Ukraine can't get a decisive victory over Russia, despite all the Western help. It simply doesn't have numbers needed.

Besides, Russia occupying part of Ukraine is useful for political reasons. In this case, Russia will always be pictured as an occupier and aggressor and a threat to Europe, thus giving a reason for NATO's existence and consolidation of the West.

If your military was fighting a war with someone like Ukraine, and yet with NATO helping the Ukraine to hold, then don't you think that your military would look or be perceived as a bunch of bumbling fools under the weight of it all ???? This would be the case anywhere in the world if this happened.

 

[beagle9]

"Beating tyrants isn't easy, therefore we should surrender to any tyrants" isn't really the compelling argument that you think it is.

I agree, but assessing the entire scenario without sugar coating it, uhhhh is I think the most wise thing to do. To much ignoring of the complete picture is taking place.

 

[Kruska]

No, why nukes? Engineering defence positions on the frontline and filling it with new reservists units. That will be quite enough. Russia has bigger numbers that Ukraine does.

Of course, undermining Western unity in supporting Ukraine is the main goal of the Putin's regime. Or more correctly, undermining Western unity per se. Here I agree with you entirely.

If one analyses the actual reasons that caused Russia to attack Ukraine - the logical answer is that under no circumstances Putin is going to acquit towards NATO taking in Ukraine as a future NATO member. However if the Ukraine-alliance should win - then that will exactly be the case.

So far Ukraine is the one that has managed to claim (retake territory) since around August - not due to Russian forces simple retreating - e.g. Kherson, - but via superior tactical combat actions towards Russian occupied territory.
This has shown that Russia's defensive positions and layouts are obviously far more vulnerable then those held by the UAF.

Observing Russia's military action's since September 2022 - show more or less no progress, aside from a particular 40-50mls section of the 700mls front-line. Russian gains can only show for around 30mls2. 30mls2 in 5-6 month!!! - via a WW1 Verdun like scenario beholding the same methodical military tactics of those having been deployed a 100 years ago.

IMO, Russia has no feasible chance of winning or even significantly progressing in this war via conventional warfare. So yes Putin betting on a political change within the pro-Ukraine alliance - especially in view of the USA is understood. Such political changes are very unlikely to occur before 2025 - in view of a possible change of government in the USA.

If I can see or anticipate such a scenario - NATO or the Ukraine alliance would be aware of such a possibility for sure. As such NATO under the present leadership of Biden will certainly try to ensure a Russian defeat before the US election outcome in 2024. A defeat beholding the liberation of all Russian occupied Ukraine territories.

So will Putin simply accept defeat or an armistice and wait out some years to give it another try? with Ukraine then most likely being a NATO member? - or will he resort to nuclear tactical weapons in Ukraine - followed by a clear threat/ultimatum towards a nuclear strike onto NATO territory to ultimately ensure that Ukraine will never become a NATO member? My personal opinion is leaning towards on the latter option. Because the day Russia attacked Ukraine I was convinced that with the available forces and it's military setup and know-how, Russia simply can't win this war via conventional military means.

This entire "special operation" IMO was centered/anchored in conjunction with a plan to topple Ukraine's government within the first 2 weeks - it never happened and since week three Russia's forces have been on a steady retreat till today.

 

[Kruska]

Putin had no reason to invade Ukraine. There was no overt threat by that country......

You must be joking - if so, you possess a strange kind of humor.

 

[beagle9]

If one analyses the actual reasons that caused Russia to attack Ukraine - the logical answer is that under no circumstances Putin is going to acquit towards NATO taking in Ukraine as a future NATO member. However if the Ukraine-alliance should win - then that will exactly be the case.

So far Ukraine is the one that has managed to claim (retake territory) since around August - not due to Russian forces simple retreating - e.g. Kherson, - but via superior tactical combat actions towards Russian occupied territory.
This has shown that Russia's defensive positions and layouts are obviously far more vulnerable then those held by the UAF.

Observing Russia's military action's since September 2022 - show more or less no progress, aside from a particular 40-50mls section of the 700mls front-line. Russian gains can only show for around 30mls2. 30mls2 in 5-6 month!!! - via a WW1 Verdun like scenario beholding the same methodical military tactics of those having been deployed a 100 years ago.

IMO, Russia has no feasible chance of winning or even significantly progressing in this war via conventional warfare. So yes Putin betting on a political change within the pro-Ukraine alliance - especially in view of the USA is understood. Such political changes are very unlikely to occur before 2025 - in view of a possible change of government in the USA.

If I can see or anticipate such a scenario - NATO or the Ukraine alliance would be aware of such a possibility for sure. As such NATO under the present leadership of Biden will certainly try to ensure a Russian defeat before the US election outcome in 2024. A defeat beholding the liberation of all Russian occupied Ukraine territories.

So will Putin simply accept defeat or an armistice and wait out some years to give it another try? with Ukraine then most likely being a NATO member? - or will he resort to nuclear tactical weapons in Ukraine - followed by a clear threat/ultimatum towards a nuclear strike onto NATO territory to ultimately ensure that Ukraine will never become a NATO member? My personal opinion is leaning towards on the latter option. Because the day Russia attacked Ukraine I was convinced that with the available forces and it's military setup and know-how, Russia simply can't win this war via conventional military means.

This entire "special operation" IMO was centered/anchored in conjunction with a plan to topple Ukraine's government within the first 2 weeks - it never happened and since week three Russia's forces have been on a steady retreat till today.

Yes, that is what I'm seeing in this also. It would seem that any west point academy grad student or professor could read into what is developing in the situation. Russia will be hell bent on not allowing NATO to get a win in Ukraine. So what's left in the scenario ? So what's at stake in the high stakes game ? Deduct battlefield loses and use specific war games formula's, and the picture gets sharper and sharper.

 

[beagle9]

You must be joking - if so, you possess a strange kind of humor.

He's just a leftist carrying his fringes water cooler for them. No nation in the world attacks another without some sort of probable cause, even if the cause is a bad one or wrong headed.

 

[ESay]

If one analyses the actual reasons that caused Russia to attack Ukraine - the logical answer is that under no circumstances Putin is going to acquit towards NATO taking in Ukraine as a future NATO member. However if the Ukraine-alliance should win - then that will exactly be the case.

So far Ukraine is the one that has managed to claim (retake territory) since around August - not due to Russian forces simple retreating - e.g. Kherson, - but via superior tactical combat actions towards Russian occupied territory.
This has shown that Russia's defensive positions and layouts are obviously far more vulnerable then those held by the UAF.

Observing Russia's military action's since September 2022 - show more or less no progress, aside from a particular 40-50mls section of the 700mls front-line. Russian gains can only show for around 30mls2. 30mls2 in 5-6 month!!! - via a WW1 Verdun like scenario beholding the same methodical military tactics of those having been deployed a 100 years ago.

IMO, Russia has no feasible chance of winning or even significantly progressing in this war via conventional warfare. So yes Putin betting on a political change within the pro-Ukraine alliance - especially in view of the USA is understood. Such political changes are very unlikely to occur before 2025 - in view of a possible change of government in the USA.

If I can see or anticipate such a scenario - NATO or the Ukraine alliance would be aware of such a possibility for sure. As such NATO under the present leadership of Biden will certainly try to ensure a Russian defeat before the US election outcome in 2024. A defeat beholding the liberation of all Russian occupied Ukraine territories.

So will Putin simply accept defeat or an armistice and wait out some years to give it another try? with Ukraine then most likely being a NATO member? - or will he resort to nuclear tactical weapons in Ukraine - followed by a clear threat/ultimatum towards a nuclear strike onto NATO territory to ultimately ensure that Ukraine will never become a NATO member? My personal opinion is leaning towards on the latter option. Because the day Russia attacked Ukraine I was convinced that with the available forces and it's military setup and know-how, Russia simply can't win this war via conventional military means.

This entire "special operation" IMO was centered/anchored in conjunction with a plan to topple Ukraine's government within the first 2 weeks - it never happened and since week three Russia's forces have been on a steady retreat till today.

Today, the number of Russian troops on the frontline is roughly the same or even exceeds the one that was a year ago at the time of beginning of the invasion.

The only significant difference is that a year ago the troops were overstretched and the frontline spanned from Mykolaiv on the south to Zhytomyr oblast on the north. Now, it has shrunk more than twice. As you can assune, the density on manpower and hardware on sq mile of the front has increased accordingly.

I don't know what be in the coming weeks or months. It is reported that Ukrainian command has plans about Southern counter-offensive that should take place in Zaporizhzhia oblast and is intended to cut Russian frontline grouping on two separate peaces.

It is reported that the Russians want to launch a spring offensive intended to seize Zaporizhzhia, the whole of Donbas and parts of Kharkiv oblast. What scenario will come true, if any, remains to be seen.

My personal feelings (and I am far from being a military expert) is that neither one will be realised in full. The frontline will roughly remain as we see it today with some gains or loses. Obviously, the Russians will gain territory in the Donbas with the city of Bakhmut falling in the coming weeks or even days.

Ukraine won't become a NATO member formally. What I expect is some sort of a security pact with NATO that will exclude troops on the ground or direct security guarantees but will provide arms supplies, training, intelligence data, coordination and so on.

And yes, all depends on what political situation in the US will be. Without the US, NATO's existence and all guarantees have little sense.

 

[Stann]

Moscow horde´s war record :-

1856 defeated by Britain and France

1905 defeated by Japan

1917 defeated by Germany

1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states

1939 defeated by Finland

1969 defeated by China

1989 defeated by Afghanistan

1989 defeated in the Cold War.

1996 defeated by Chechnya

2022 defeated by Ukraine

WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn

Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-

a) Hungary 1956

b) Czechoslovakia 1968

c) Moldova 1992

d) Georgia 2008

Moscow has amassed almost its entire army in Ukraine, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told BBC on Feb. 15.

However, he said Moscow has not been able “to punch through” Ukraine’s defenses, but we have rather seen an effort to advance.

Ukraine's Chief of Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov earlier said in an interview with the Washington Post that approximately 326,000 Moscow soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine.

czar Putin has started new offensive actions in Ukraine, “sending in thousands and thousands more troops,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Feb. 13, as quoted by the Financial Times.

“It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition...must reach Ukraine before Moscow can seize the initiative on the battlefield.”

Wallace: 97% of Russian army is in Ukraine

Russia has amassed almost its entire army in Ukraine, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told BBC on Feb. 15.

kyivindependent.com

Which means Russia, itself, is very vulnerable to attack, both from outside forces as well as revolt from the autonomous states which compose over half of Russia.

 

[Stann]

Ukraine was invaded because Putin wanted a legacy other than just stealing everything. That's about it.

The Ukraine was so dominated by Russia they always felt they owned it. Like most people totally abused by the Soviet Union, it only fostered hatred and opposition to Russia. Russia doesn't deserve to exist in any capacity where it can threaten other nations.

 

[Litwin]

Which means Russia, itself, is very vulnerable to attack, both from outside forces as well as revolt from the autonomous states which compose over half of Russia.

yes, and top down disintegration

 

[Litwin]

The Ukraine was so dominated by Russia they always felt they owned it. Like most people totally abused by the Soviet Union, it only fostered hatred and opposition to Russia. Russia doesn't deserve to exist in any capacity where it can threaten other nations.

 

[Litwin]

1/3 of Moldova is still under Moscow occupation

 

[Stann]

1/3 of Moldova is still under Moscow occupation

Russia will continue to plague former Soviet states as long as it's corrupt government stays in power.

 

[Litwin]

Russia will continue to plague former Soviet states as long as it's corrupt government stays in power.

Moscow export the corruption around the globe. but when it comes to eastern europe , corruption is a part of Moscow´s hybrid warfare

 

[luiza]

The measure of your panic , Titloose , is directly proportional to the frequency of your lunatic posts.
Change your frilly knickers now .

Vuhledar and Bakhmut are gone , Tit Loser .
Russia bamboozled the Nazis completely and now your front line is in pieces .
Out thought and outfought .

 

[José]

Originally posted by Luiza
The measure of your panic , Titloose , is directly proportional to the frequency of your lunatic posts.
Change your frilly knickers now .

Vuhledar and Bakhmut are gone , Tit Loser .
Russia bamboozled the Nazis completely and now your front line is in pieces .
Out thought and outfought .

The guy is completely obsessed with Russia. From September 2017 to this day he never posted a single message about any other subject.

In 2017 when nobody was thinking about Russia, good old Litwin was already here relentlessly bombarding the slavic nation with 5 or 7 threads a week.

The obsession is so great some people suspect there's a personal reason behind all that hate.

 

[Flash]

good, do you agree ?

The Queerboi is always wrong on everything but lets hope he is right for once in his life.

 

[Litwin]

wrong

Girkin believes there is no chance for Russia to win the war with the current leadership.

 

[Litwin]

 

[luiza]

The guy is completely obsessed with Russia. From September 2017 to this day he never posted a single message about any other subject.

In 2017 when nobody was thinking about Russia, good old Litwin was already here relentlessly bombarding the slavic nation with 5 or 7 threads a week.

The obsession is so great some people suspect there's a personal reason behind all that hate.

He was apparently thrown out for his views , though I believe he was more Lithuanian than Russian .

Clearly he is far from the full ticket but strangely some extreme obsessives can make compulsive viewing . I should not really waste the few minutes daily that I do on his stupid posts but he has been kicked off other sites ( probably all) and now has nowhere else to go .

Because I have a few months break I regard him like a substitute for a silly crossword which was once another of my silly weaknesses .
Now I can play Counter Stupidity for awhile .Though he is a hopeless opponent --- zero brain , no pro background .