UK: 97% of Moscow army is in Ukraine

[Litwin]

 

[Kruska]

Today, the number of Russian troops on the frontline is roughly the same or even exceeds the one that was a year ago at the time of beginning of the invasion.

The only significant difference is that a year ago the troops were overstretched and the frontline spanned from Mykolaiv on the south to Zhytomyr oblast on the north. Now, it has shrunk more than twice. As you can assune, the density on manpower and hardware on sq mile of the front has increased accordingly.

I don't know what be in the coming weeks or months. It is reported that Ukrainian command has plans about Southern counter-offensive that should take place in Zaporizhzhia oblast and is intended to cut Russian frontline grouping on two separate peaces.

It is reported that the Russians want to launch a spring offensive intended to seize Zaporizhzhia, the whole of Donbas and parts of Kharkiv oblast. What scenario will come true, if any, remains to be seen.

My personal feelings (and I am far from being a military expert) is that neither one will be realised in full. The frontline will roughly remain as we see it today with some gains or loses. Obviously, the Russians will gain territory in the Donbas with the city of Bakhmut falling in the coming weeks or even days.

Ukraine won't become a NATO member formally. What I expect is some sort of a security pact with NATO that will exclude troops on the ground or direct security guarantees but will provide arms supplies, training, intelligence data, coordination and so on.

And yes, all depends on what political situation in the US will be. Without the US, NATO's existence and all guarantees have little sense.

Yes - your post mirrors my view onto the situation.

200-300,000 men on the Russian side are simply not enough to hold/secure a 700mls front-line and in parallel conduct a "major" breakthrough offensive.
The UAF however have already established (or still in progress) a around 40-50,000 men encompassing force that has not been drawn from their front-line pool.
If this force has the power to achieve a real breakthrough or helps to turn the tide would be anyone's guess.

Looking onto a map, a realistic point of interest for a UAF offensive would be to establish a salient from Zaporozhye to Melitopol - or other similar strategic advances. However we know that the Russians are looking onto the same map.

Certain is that according to "present" NATO statutes - Ukraine being in a war can't even pass it's application for membership, needless to say can't be a verified NATO member. I think this is one of the main-reasons as to why there are constant reports of NATO trying to convince Ukraine to agree towards an armistice.

This NATO security guarantee is exactly as what NATO should have done in the first place latest since 2015 - it would have avoided this ridiculous war - or would at least have provided a realistic counter-offensive towards invading Russian forces. It would however have turned Donbass and Luhansk into a Gaza similar scenario - endless urban guerilla warfare, without NATO troop involvement.

As such a complete withdrawal of Russian troops in all of Ukraine's sovereign territory - a clear fundamental statement/assurance by NATO not to allow for Ukraine to become a member - backed by an security assistance guarantee in the event of a Russian attack. If Putin would have declined such a proposal - NATO could still have forwarded it's clear intentions regarding the security of Ukraine.

 

[Litwin]

Russia will continue to plague former Soviet states as long as it's corrupt government stays in power.

highly recommend

 

[badger2]

Yes - your post mirrors my view onto the situation.

200-300,000 men on the Russian side are simply not enough to hold/secure a 700mls front-line and in parallel conduct a "major" breakthrough offensive.
The UAF however have already established (or still in progress) a around 40-50,000 men encompassing force that has not been drawn from their front-line pool.
If this force has the power to achieve a real breakthrough or helps to turn the tide would be anyone's guess.

Looking onto a map, a realistic point of interest for a UAF offensive would be to establish a salient from Zaporozhye to Melitopol - or other similar strategic advances. However we know that the Russians are looking onto the same map.

Certain is that according to "present" NATO statutes - Ukraine being in a war can't even pass it's application for membership, needless to say can't be a verified NATO member. I think this is one of the main-reasons as to why there are constant reports of NATO trying to convince Ukraine to agree towards an armistice.

This NATO security guarantee is exactly as what NATO should have done in the first place latest since 2015 - it would have avoided this ridiculous war - or would at least have provided a realistic counter-offensive towards invading Russian forces. It would however have turned Donbass and Luhansk into a Gaza similar scenario - endless urban guerilla warfare, without NATO troop involvement.

As such a complete withdrawal of Russian troops in all of Ukraine's sovereign territory - a clear fundamental statement/assurance by NATO not to allow for Ukraine to become a member - backed by an security assistance guarantee in the event of a Russian attack. If Putin would have declined such a proposal - NATO could still have forwarded it's clear intentions regarding the security of Ukraine.

Micro-transport is happening all over the U.S. Electric skateboards in the city.
17 Feb 2023 Sputnik News Russian TrUMP Heavy Drone

Russia Starts Testing Its New TrUMP Heavy Drone

The maiden flight of the TrUMP drone, which was designed to implement both military and civilian tasks, is expected to take place in April

sputniknews.com

 

[ESay]

Yes - your post mirrors my view onto the situation.

200-300,000 men on the Russian side are simply not enough to hold/secure a 700mls front-line and in parallel conduct a "major" breakthrough offensive.
The UAF however have already established (or still in progress) a around 40-50,000 men encompassing force that has not been drawn from their front-line pool.
If this force has the power to achieve a real breakthrough or helps to turn the tide would be anyone's guess.

Looking onto a map, a realistic point of interest for a UAF offensive would be to establish a salient from Zaporozhye to Melitopol - or other similar strategic advances. However we know that the Russians are looking onto the same map.

Certain is that according to "present" NATO statutes - Ukraine being in a war can't even pass it's application for membership, needless to say can't be a verified NATO member. I think this is one of the main-reasons as to why there are constant reports of NATO trying to convince Ukraine to agree towards an armistice.

This NATO security guarantee is exactly as what NATO should have done in the first place latest since 2015 - it would have avoided this ridiculous war - or would at least have provided a realistic counter-offensive towards invading Russian forces. It would however have turned Donbass and Luhansk into a Gaza similar scenario - endless urban guerilla warfare, without NATO troop involvement.

As such a complete withdrawal of Russian troops in all of Ukraine's sovereign territory - a clear fundamental statement/assurance by NATO not to allow for Ukraine to become a member - backed by an security assistance guarantee in the event of a Russian attack. If Putin would have declined such a proposal - NATO could still have forwarded it's clear intentions regarding the security of Ukraine.

Well, I think it is pointless to speculate about spring offensives and counter-offensives. The both sides have invested so many propaganda efforts in that that we can barely sort out what is actual information and what is just propaganda. It is almost the end of February now and in quite short time we will find out what side was right and what was wrong.

NATO is more convenient with Ukraine remaining as some kind of a buffer zone between it and Russia, rather than becoming a full member with direct security guarantees. And in this direction they work.

Also, I don't think that Ukraine will become the EU member state. And not only because of Ukraine's corruption, weak economy, territorial disputes etc. Even if Ukraine were an exemplar nation of 'the first world', that wouldn't increase its chances on the EU's membership. Rather, it would decrease them.

Two main nations of the Union - Germany and France - don't want the Eastern flanc to be strengthening enough to create the other centre of power inside the EU. That is quite reasonable strategy. That is why I think the UK leaving the EU is an advantage to the bloc, btw. Let the Franco- German alliance lead the bloc, after all.

 

[Litwin]

Micro-transport is happening all over the U.S. Electric skateboards in the city.
17 Feb 2023 Sputnik News Russian TrUMP Heavy Drone

Russia Starts Testing Its New TrUMP Heavy Drone

The maiden flight of the TrUMP drone, which was designed to implement both military and civilian tasks, is expected to take place in April

sputniknews.com

another wunderwaffe.ru, IVAN ?

 

[AlexanderPK]

Russia in the very long term, is probably going to get Ukraine. I hate to say it, but that's what I believe. In the meantime however, I hope Ukraine takes out as many of the reds as possible. For every Ukrainian mother mourning the loss of a dead son, I want ten Russian mothers doing the same.


View attachment 757289

Listen to what smart people say. So far it's ten for every Russian it seems.


And these are waiting to be brought back to where the sun don't shine, to Ukraine that is.

 

[Marener]

Listen to what smart people say. So far it's ten for every Russian it seems.

This guy had a terrible track record. The colonel has been predicting the imminent demise since the start of the war, yet here we are a year later and he’s still predicting the imminent demise of Ukraine. This time he means it!

 

[AlexanderPK]

This guy had a terrible track record. The colonel has been predicting the imminent demise since the start of the war, yet here we are a year later and he’s still predicting the imminent demise of Ukraine. This time he means it!

And you didn't even accuse him of sexually harassing anyone. How nice of you.
What track record does this guy, Mark Milley, have? Russia has lost in advance. Isn't this what he basically says?

 

[Marener]

And you didn't even accuse him of sexually harassing anyone. How nice of you.
What track record does this guy, Mark Milley, have? Russia has lost in advance. Isn't this what he basically says?

No opinion about Mark Milley. All I know is that Russia went up against a supposedly inferior fighting force and hasn’t fared as well as most people thought with large amounts of casualties.

 

[AlexanderPK]

No opinion about Mark Milley. All I know is that Russia went up against a supposedly inferior fighting force and hasn’t fared as well as most people thought with large amounts of casualties.

Kiev in three days again? We don't fight civilians and carpet bomb cities, we fight the bandera bastards who hide behind civilians.

 

[Confederate Soldier]

Listen to what smart people say. So far it's ten for every Russian it seems.


And these are waiting to be brought back to where the sun don't shine, to Ukraine that is.

That first video, I find to be bullshit. Grasping at straws to find an excuse to make the Ukrainians seem weak. Telegram is also a hot bed of Russian propaganda.






Ukrainians will fight and die for their country as they should, it's their patriotic duty. If a foreign nation invaded the U.S. I would want American citizens to fight down to the last bullet, the last shell, the last man, the last woman, and the last drop of childrens blood. I see no issue with the Ukrainians doing the same.

 

[AlexanderPK]

That first video, I find to be bullshit. Grasping at straws to find an excuse to make the Ukrainians seem weak. Telegram is also a hot bed of Russian propaganda.


View attachment 757880



Ukrainians will fight and die for their country as they should, it's their patriotic duty. If a foreign nation invaded the U.S. I would want American citizens to fight down to the last bullet, the last shell, the last man, the last woman, and the last drop of childrens blood. I see no issue with the Ukrainians doing recruitment

There there, take a tissue. Everybody gotta die sometime, Red
There's a joke going around: Recruitment officers in Ukraine are like Robin Hoods, they take conscription notices from the rich and hand them to the poor.

 

[Confederate Soldier]

There there, take a tissue. Everybody gotta die sometime, Red

And die defending the nation from a tyrannical invader is an honorable way to go.

There's a joke going around: Recruitment officers in Ukraine are like Robin Hoods, they take conscription notices from the rich and hand them to the poor.

That's every single war, dude.

 

[EvilEyeFleegle]

There there, take a tissue. Everybody gotta die sometime, Red
There's a joke going around: Recruitment officers in Ukraine are like Robin Hoods, they take conscription notices from the rich and hand them to the poor.

Really? You got the nerve to make a conscription joke about the Ukes??

They are emptying out Nursing homes and orphanages..to the battle field in Russia. Emptying out the prisons, and snatching people literally off of the street.
1M+ fled the country rather than serve.

BTW, the rich escaping the draft is hardly a new thing, in any country. Bone spur, anyone?

 

[beagle9]

No opinion about Mark Milley. All I know is that Russia went up against a supposedly inferior fighting force and hasn’t fared as well as most people thought with large amounts of casualties.

To be fair, you would say that they were an inferior fighting force, but once backed by the NATO countries, they were turned into a force to be reckoned with.

 

[Kilroy2]

Russian may have more troops but a certain percentage are conscription. here your gun , Ukraine is that way. More does not mean better. It just means, commanders should never turn their back when ordering their soldiers to advance.

 

[badger2]

After 70 years in Ukraine (a drug-trafficking hub for Europe), the CIA helped to assure that a certain class could afford to bribe conscriptors while the president snorts Langley coke.

 

[Marener]

To be fair, you would say that they were an inferior fighting force, but once backed by the NATO countries, they were turned into a force to be reckoned with.

I don’t know. Even with NATO backing, they’re still inferior. Russia has thousands and thousands of tanks. Hundreds and hundreds of aircraft.

They just don’t have the ability to field it all.

 

[beagle9]

That first video, I find to be bullshit. Grasping at straws to find an excuse to make the Ukrainians seem weak. Telegram is also a hot bed of Russian propaganda.


View attachment 757880



Ukrainians will fight and die for their country as they should, it's their patriotic duty. If a foreign nation invaded the U.S. I would want American citizens to fight down to the last bullet, the last shell, the last man, the last woman, and the last drop of childrens blood. I see no issue with the Ukrainians doing the same.

I agree with this, just as long as the government they are fighting for is a noble and righteous one that is honored in it's governance.