The West will have to make peace with Russia

[martybegan]

Russia is a failed nation in decline. Putin invaded the Ukraine to distract Russians from how bad conditions have gotten for most people in the nation.

When Putin took over the government in 2000, the population of Russia was 146 million people. Today there are only 143 million people in Russia and the population is rapidly declining, is anyone who can leave the country, is fleeing.

The population of Russia is aging and declining. A million young men left to avoid military service in the Ukraine.

During the same timeframe, the population of the USA increased from 282 million, to 341 million - more than a 25% increase.

Napoleon and Hitler had the same thought, look what that got them.

 

[Sunni Man]

Russia and Turkey are the weak men of Eastern Europe and Western Asia.

Both Russia and Turkey have 1st class modern militaries

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Sunni Man sounds just like Hitler's supporters: "Just this, no more."

 

[martybegan]

What is Putin’s only path to victory?

Stand pat and wait for the outcome of the 2024 election

A Trump victory would lead to his 24 hour solution where he demands Ukraine surrender captured territory and cease fighting or face a complete loss of U.S. military aid

And 4-8 more years of pointless fighting is better?

Unless Ukraine can magically spring up 5-10 new divisions, fully trained and equipped, they aren't pushing the Russians out of anywhere.

 

[g5000]

How fast though? Right now production of tanks and munitions are incredibly slow.

As Admiral Isoruku Yamamoto said, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

We were extremely ill prepared for war in 1941. In great part because of the influence of Father Coughlin (whose modern counterpart is Tucker Carlson) and the America First movement led by Charles Lindbergh which demanded we stay out of the affairs of Europe.

But we woke up after Pearl Harbor and brought our A-game. Bigly.

History repeats itself.

 

[g5000]

And 4-8 more years of pointless fighting is better?

Unless Ukraine can magically spring up 5-10 new divisions, fully trained and equipped, they aren't pushing the Russians out of anywhere.

France has begun talking about putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

 

[Sunni Man]

Sunni Man sounds just like Hitler's supporters: "Just this, no more."

No idea what that means, but carry on. ...

 

[martybegan]

As Admiral Isoruku Yamamoto said, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

We were extremely ill prepared for war in 1941. In great part because of the influence of Father Coughlin (whose modern counterpart is Tucker Carlson) and the America First movement led by Charles Lindbergh which demanded we stay out of the affairs of Europe.

But we woke up after Pearl Harbor and brought our A-game. Bigly.

History repeats itself.

And it took almost 1.5 years of losing and breaking even to get to that point.

Also modern armaments can't be mass produced in the same way WWII era ones could.

 

[martybegan]

France has begun talking about putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

And what do we do when Russia starts bombing and shooting at those boots?

 

[g5000]

Napoleon and Hitler had the same thought, look what that got them.

Failed analogy.

No one is talking about invading Russia. Just kicking Russia out of Ukraine.

 

[rightwinger]

And 4-8 more years of pointless fighting is better?

Unless Ukraine can magically spring up 5-10 new divisions, fully trained and equipped, they aren't pushing the Russians out of anywhere.

I think Ukraine knows they cannot militarily “push them out” no more than Afghanistan pushed them out.
The goal is wear them out, force a regime change and have them leave

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

If Russia shoots at French boots in Ukraine, that will be the worst mistake Muscovy has ever made.

 

[martybegan]

Failed analogy.

No one is talking about invading Russia. Just kicking Russia out of Ukraine.

And yet after almost two years no one has managed to do that.

You are falling victim to the cheerleader mentality, and willfully ignore the objective conditions being seen in the area of operations.

 

[martybegan]

I think Ukraine knows they cannot militarily “push them out” no more than Afghanistan pushed them out.
The goal is wear them out, force a regime change and have them leave

Afghanistan was able to do that because the Soviets were trying to pacify the population and prop up a puppet government. Also Afghanistan is shit terrain for mechanized warfare, as we found out as well.

Right now that "forcing regime change" isn't working.

 

[Sunni Man]

France has begun talking about putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Boots on the ground one day; surrender the next day, ...

 

[g5000]

And it took almost 1.5 years of losing and breaking even to get to that point.

Also modern armaments can't be mass produced in the same way WWII era ones could.

“The U.S. Army has a pretty direct lever to increase the production of staple munitions like 155mm artillery shells,” said Rafael Loss, a European defense expert on the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Army produced around 14,000 155mm rounds a month in government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants. In December 2022, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army was looking to increase production to 20,000 rounds per month by the spring and 40,000 rounds per month by 2025.

Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.

The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.

In race to make artillery shells, US, EU see different results

 

[martybegan]

If Russia shoots at French boots in Ukraine, that will be the worst mistake Muscovy has ever made.

And how would we end the resulting war then?

 

[rightwinger]

Both Russia and Turkey have 1st class modern militaries

We used to think Russia had a 1st class modern military.
In trying to use it, Putin proved otherwise

 

[g5000]

Afghanistan was able to do that because the Soviets were trying to pacify the population and prop up a puppet government. Also Afghanistan is shit terrain for mechanized warfare, as we found out as well.

Right now that "forcing regime change" isn't working.

Russia and Ukraine are now involved in trench warfare. As in World War I.

The lines are moving by yards instead of miles.

With more armaments, Ukraine can once again take the offense.

 

[martybegan]

“The U.S. Army has a pretty direct lever to increase the production of staple munitions like 155mm artillery shells,” said Rafael Loss, a European defense expert on the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Army produced around 14,000 155mm rounds a month in government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants. In December 2022, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army was looking to increase production to 20,000 rounds per month by the spring and 40,000 rounds per month by 2025.

Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.

The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.

In race to make artillery shells, US, EU see different results

In a full scale war they would be able to shoot a month's production if a few weeks, considering we would probably have to supply our allies as well.