The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

 

[toobfreak]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

I was going to say that one problem with testing (the alive and dead) is the problem of FALSE POSITIVES: You may test people who test positive who have have some Covid in their lungs, etc., but are not even sick, have no symptoms, won't ever get sick and will never become contagious. Then you might have people with flu-like symptoms who die and test positive as well, but Covid was not the primary cause of death.

THERE IS NO WAY of truly knowing the extent or spread of SARS-2 Covid-19 in the population unless you took a sampling of the population BEFORE the infection started as your base reference. There is a good chance a fair number of people would test positive for Covid a year ago anyway even before the infection started, either due to RANDOM ERRORS in the testing itself or due to other viruses similar enough to Covid to fool the test.

I don't think it's a false positive if someone actually has the Covid-19 virus in their system, just because they don't happen to be sick from it. That's still someone who's infected.

You misunderstand me. You're certainly not a Neanderthal yet if I look closely at your genetic code I will find bits and pieces of the neanderthal genome unless your ancestors are from central and southern Africa and have never left. Without a base comparison from an earlier time to know how prevalent fragments of Covid were around in us here and there to an extent that would qualify as a viable test positive, we really have no way of knowing how much of the current virus we test positive for is truly new and original.

 

[bripat9643]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

I was going to say that one problem with testing (the alive and dead) is the problem of FALSE POSITIVES: You may test people who test positive who have have some Covid in their lungs, etc., but are not even sick, have no symptoms, won't ever get sick and will never become contagious. Then you might have people with flu-like symptoms who die and test positive as well, but Covid was not the primary cause of death.

THERE IS NO WAY of truly knowing the extent or spread of SARS-2 Covid-19 in the population unless you took a sampling of the population BEFORE the infection started as your base reference. There is a good chance a fair number of people would test positive for Covid a year ago anyway even before the infection started, either due to RANDOM ERRORS in the testing itself or due to other viruses similar enough to Covid to fool the test.

I don't think it's a false positive if someone actually has the Covid-19 virus in their system, just because they don't happen to be sick from it. That's still someone who's infected.

You misunderstand me. You're certainly not a Neanderthal yet if I look closely at your genetic code I will find bits and pieces of the neanderthal genome unless your ancestors are from central and southern Africa and hasve never left. Without a base comparison from an earlier time to know how prevalent fragments of Covid were around in us here and there to an extent that would qualify as a viable test positive, we really have no way ofg knowing how much of the current virus is truly new and original.

I think testing for antibodies is fairly conclusive. They don't look at your genes. They look at your immune system.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

 

[Dr Grump]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

God you're such a moron. You really are. You are the stereotype of a Deplorable. Dumb as a sack of rocks.
I'd ask you to do some research but you're incapable.
Sure, people are dying from other underlying causes - cancer, hypertension etc. But without coronavirus they would still be alive.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Those pop-ups ARE possible

Possible? At 200,000 deaths estimated, they are likely to occur in some places.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart

www.worldometers.info

 

[Rocko]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart

www.worldometers.info

The reason why the mortality rate has gone up in the U.S. in spite of more testing is our healthcare system is overwhelmed, and it’s only going to get worse.

 

[The Original Tree]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

I know for a fact that hospital administrators and coroners in these Left Tard Sanctuary Cities are cooking the books on COVID 19 Deaths as a cause of death in the hopes they can get more Federal Dollars, Equipment etc.

 

[jc456]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

God you're such a moron. You really are. You are the stereotype of a Deplorable. Dumb as a sack of rocks.
I'd ask you to do some research but you're incapable.
Sure, people are dying from other underlying causes - cancer, hypertension etc. But without coronavirus they would still be alive.

you don't know that poindexter. you don't know that at all. the flu kills more with sickness. uniformed hack you are.

 

[HappyJoy]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

God you're such a moron. You really are. You are the stereotype of a Deplorable. Dumb as a sack of rocks.
I'd ask you to do some research but you're incapable.
Sure, people are dying from other underlying causes - cancer, hypertension etc. But without coronavirus they would still be alive.

you don't know that poindexter. you don't know that at all. the flu kills more with sickness. uniformed hack you are.

Sure, it's just a coincidence that they are all dying now.

 

[Dr Grump]

you don't know that poindexter. you don't know that at all. the flu kills more with sickness. uniformed hack you are.

No it doesn't TTF

 

[EvilCat Breath]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

I know for a fact that hospital administrators and coroners in these Left Tard Sanctuary Cities are cooking the books on COVID 19 Deaths as a cause of death in the hopes they can get more Federal Dollars, Equipment etc.

Of course they are. Someone who had their gullet opened in a car accident will be translated into a corona death just to pump up the numbers. A young man in my neighborhood died of "the corona virus". No he didn't. He died of a fentanyl overdose. Pump up those fake numbers.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

God you're such a moron. You really are. You are the stereotype of a Deplorable. Dumb as a sack of rocks.
I'd ask you to do some research but you're incapable.
Sure, people are dying from other underlying causes - cancer, hypertension etc. But without coronavirus they would still be alive.

you don't know that poindexter. you don't know that at all. the flu kills more with sickness. uniformed hack you are.

Sure, it's just a coincidence that they are all dying now.

Plenty of people would be dying NOW. Even if there were no virus.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart

www.worldometers.info

The reason why the mortality rate has gone up in the U.S. in spite of more testing is our healthcare system is overwhelmed, and it’s only going to get worse.

I agree, that could be at least in part the reason why. Now please explain to Bripat why simply just looking at mortality rates in Iceland alone isn't really indicative of our own COVID-19 mortality rate.

 

[HappyJoy]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

God you're such a moron. You really are. You are the stereotype of a Deplorable. Dumb as a sack of rocks.
I'd ask you to do some research but you're incapable.
Sure, people are dying from other underlying causes - cancer, hypertension etc. But without coronavirus they would still be alive.

you don't know that poindexter. you don't know that at all. the flu kills more with sickness. uniformed hack you are.

Sure, it's just a coincidence that they are all dying now.

Plenty of people would be dying NOW. Even if there were no virus.

Right, they stack bodies in meat trucks all the time and set up hospitals in Central Park.

You really haven't run out of hooch yet, have ya'?