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They don't even have to be asymptomatic. How many people get the flu every year and never go to the doctor? I've had the flu dozens of times and never visited a doctor for it. I sure as hell had symptomsThat works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.That will be a miracle.The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.
They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.
The math these people are doing is wrong.
When you look at historical pandemics, taking the number of deaths as the numerator divided by the number of cases as the denominator, is accurate because the number of cases = the number of RESOLVED CASES.
With an ongoing pandemic, that you are still in the middle of, with exponentially growing numbers of cases, this is equation of number of total cases = number of resolved cases is NOT TRUE.
To make an analogy, if we were trying to determine the rate of widget production failures and have 900 at the factory in production, 100 completed and 10 that have failed, is the failure rate !% or 10%? It is TEN PERCENT because the ones still in production are unknowns. They are not resolved cases, so they dont count in the failure rate calculation.
We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
And what does that look like globally?
View attachment 317778
That wasn't anecdotal evidence moron. That was sample data. Anecdotal evidence would be saying "well I knew someone who got the swine flu, but I never got it!"One very small area of the country. Here in Wisconsin we have had 25 deaths.Nope, the morgues are not overflowing. Nope, they are not using the temporary morgues.
View attachment 317768
Hospitals overflowing with bodies in US epicenter of virus
It has become a grim ritual outside New York City’s hospitals: workers in protective gear loading the bodies of coronavirus victims into refrigerated trailers. A surge in deaths in the epicenter of the crisis in the U.S. has overwhelmed the city’s permanent morgues and filled storage spaces in...www.yahoo.com
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA You just argued with me on how many posts that anecdotal evidence is useless, and then you use anecdotal evidence...
People in Wisconsin are not dying like they are in the port cities because of containment. So people in New York are dying in order to protect people in Wisconsin from dying.
That is fairly irrelevant. normally only cases counted are those that seek medical treatment anyway, so why is COVID19 different in that respect?That works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
The mortality rate is the ratio of deaths to the number of people infected. The fact that some aren't counted doesn't mean you can just pretend they don't exist. The denominator in the ratio means all the people infected. That's the definition of "mortality rate."That is fairly irrelevant. normally only cases counted are those that seek medical treatment anyway, so why is COVID19 different in that respect?That works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
If they dont see a doctor, they may have the virus, but what makes them a case for statistical purposes?
I had mumps when I was a kid that was largely assymptomatic and it was never counted by anyone.
Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
Because asymptomatic flu isn’t nearly as prevalent as asymptomatic Wuhan appears to be. Again, flu is not nearly as selective as Wuhan.That is fairly irrelevant. normally only cases counted are those that seek medical treatment anyway, so why is COVID19 different in that respect?That works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
If they dont see a doctor, they may have the virus, but what makes them a case for statistical purposes?
I had mumps when I was a kid that was largely assymptomatic and it was never counted by anyone.
Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
How could you possibly know that? By definition it was not reported.Because asymptomatic flu isn’t nearly as prevalent as asymptomatic Wuhan appears to be. Again, flu is not nearly as selective as Wuhan.Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
Wow, you totally did not understand what I posted.The mortality rate is the ratio of deaths to the number of people infected. The fact that some aren't counted doesn't mean you can just pretend they don't exist. The denominator in the ratio means all the people infected. That's the definition of "mortality rate."That is fairly irrelevant. normally only cases counted are those that seek medical treatment anyway, so why is COVID19 different in that respect?That works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
If they dont see a doctor, they may have the virus, but what makes them a case for statistical purposes?
I had mumps when I was a kid that was largely assymptomatic and it was never counted by anyone.
Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
Furthermore, they can be counted after the epidemic has run it's course.
It amazes me how profoundly stupid you TDS morons are.
The real answer right now is: Nobody knows. Not you, not me, not anybody.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
www.ft.com
The Creator knows.The real answer right now is: Nobody knows. Not you, not me, not anybody.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
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Yeah, well, if the Creator knows, maybe he could communicate that information to his creations. Unless he just doesn't give a fuck.The Creator knows.The real answer right now is: Nobody knows. Not you, not me, not anybody.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
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News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
Because recent random testing has demonstrated a prevalence of asymptomatic cases. PeopleHow could you possibly know that? By definition it was not reported.Because asymptomatic flu isn’t nearly as prevalent as asymptomatic Wuhan appears to be. Again, flu is not nearly as selective as Wuhan.Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
South Korean testing.How could you possibly know that? By definition it was not reported.Because asymptomatic flu isn’t nearly as prevalent as asymptomatic Wuhan appears to be. Again, flu is not nearly as selective as Wuhan.Why should assymptomatic COVID19 be counted if no medical treatment is sought?
LOLOLYour real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.The plan of every TDS moron and the fake news media. They understand that these extreme lockdown policies are destroying the economy, and they are doing everything possible to accelerate it. That's why douchebags like you are in here exaggerating how deadly this virus is.Their plan is to destroy the economy and then blame it all on Trump. However, it's not going to work because the public approves of the way Trump is handling the epidemic.I'm telling ya, this whole thing is just the liberals going nuclear, they are putting all their eggs in this "corona-virus" basket, it's a last ditch effort to swing the election and every government agency is onboard, heck I bet there are liberals on this forum who will swear they have been hit on the head with a piece of falling sky.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
Whose plan? Retard.
And the mortality rate is about 2%. Not that it matters when we start seeing 20k, 30k, 50k and more dead.
Actually doing everything possible to flatten the curve so that those who do get it and need to be hospitalized will be able to do so. Maybe we should have started sooner.
Please enlighten us to the date.
I didn't ask for an exact day.
Of course you wont' give a date. You don't want to be pinned down and be held responsible for your misinformation.
Again, I didn't ask for an exact date.
If you don't know when the shutdown should end, then shut your fucking yap.
184781 infected 3762 deaths 2% death rate
By YOUR calculation above -- you're getting whats called a Case Mortality Rate.. That the death rate ONLY for people who SEEK medical attention.. CARRIERS who don't seek med attention or misdiagnosed cases are JUST as important to get an OVERALL "mortality" rate...
They’re even questioning those false positives. They think upwards of maybe 50% of the population may just be completely asymptomatic. So those what they may have thought to have been false positives, could’ve been asymptomatic positives, without more extensive blood work performed. That 9/10 tests coming back as false positives just didn’t sound right to me, especially for anti-human antibody tests. False positives happen, but that’s a huge margin of error.I was going to say that one problem with testing (the alive and dead) is the problem of FALSE POSITIVES: You may test people who test positive who have have some Covid in their lungs, etc., but are not even sick, have no symptoms, won't ever get sick and will never become contagious. Then you might have people with flu-like symptoms who die and test positive as well, but Covid was not the primary cause of death.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
THERE IS NO WAY of truly knowing the extent or spread of SARS-2 Covid-19 in the population unless you took a sampling of the population BEFORE the infection started as your base reference. There is a good chance a fair number of people would test positive for Covid a year ago anyway even before the infection started, either due to RANDOM ERRORS in the testing itself or due to other viruses similar enough to Covid to fool the test.
The bigger problem is how contagious this is. I suspect the actual death rate is going to be closer to 1-1.3%, which is still triple that of the flu (.4%). But with how contagious this is, that 1.3% hitting all at once could be very bad. Like what is happening in Italy and Spain, and most likely China. Italy is essentially refusing treatment to anyone over 60, that’s going to cause a lot more die than there needs to. So that’s going to skew the numbers up. God only knows how bad China is. It’s the perfect country for a virus like this to wreak havoc in. I’m sure their real death rate is actually higher than Italy’s is.
Republican governors are just responding to the hysteria created by TDS morons like you and the fake media.LOLOLYour real plan is to force people to stay home until the economy tanks.The plan of every TDS moron and the fake news media. They understand that these extreme lockdown policies are destroying the economy, and they are doing everything possible to accelerate it. That's why douchebags like you are in here exaggerating how deadly this virus is.Their plan is to destroy the economy and then blame it all on Trump. However, it's not going to work because the public approves of the way Trump is handling the epidemic.I'm telling ya, this whole thing is just the liberals going nuclear, they are putting all their eggs in this "corona-virus" basket, it's a last ditch effort to swing the election and every government agency is onboard, heck I bet there are liberals on this forum who will swear they have been hit on the head with a piece of falling sky.This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
Whose plan? Retard.
And the mortality rate is about 2%. Not that it matters when we start seeing 20k, 30k, 50k and more dead.
Actually doing everything possible to flatten the curve so that those who do get it and need to be hospitalized will be able to do so. Maybe we should have started sooner.
And Republican governors are in on that nefarious plan, fucking moron?
I was refering to your estimate of assymptomatic flu cases. That is by definition an unknown.South Korean testing.How could you possibly know that? By definition it was not reported.
Dude, this disease is not fake or a hoax.Republican governors are just responding to the hysteria created by TDS morons like you and the fake media.
Bruce, He gave us minds capable of handling this. We dont need a Celestial Cheatsheet.Yeah, well, if the Creator knows, maybe he could communicate that information to his creations. Unless he just doesn't give a fuck.The Creator knows.
This is what a fucking moron looks like...
Please enlighten us to the date.I didn't ask for an exact day.Of course you wont' give a date. You don't want to be pinned down and be held responsible for your misinformation.Again, I didn't ask for an exact date.If you don't know when the shutdown should end, then shut your fucking yap.
