What's new
US Message Board đź¦… Political Discussion Forum

Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

# Speaker of the House

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
This is excellent information that I never knew before, about how Speaker votes count.

#### Matt Glassman​

18m â€˘ 13 tweets â€˘ 3 min read

I'm seeing some confusion over the Speakership math. Here I'll do the bare-bones procedural explanation, stripped down to just the math. (As always, the House is in control of its rules and practices, and can adjust them by resolution or by overturning precedents). 1/N

First, what you need to win. Under current rule and precedents, the Speaker is elected by "a majority of Members-Elect, voting by surname, a quorum being present."
You do *not* need 218. You need a complete majority of those who vote for someone by name. 2/N

Right now, there are 434 Members-elect (recall that Rep. McEachin sadly passed away last month). If every Member-elect votes for a candidate by name, you will need 218, since 217/434 is *not* a majority, but 218/434 is a majority. 3/N

Members who choose not to vote (or who vote "present") do not count in the total. The upshot is that this reduces the denominator of the equation. For everyone two members who do not vote (or who vote "present"), it takes one less vote to win. 4/N

Example. if McCarthy gets 216 votes, Jeffries gets 212, and Biggs gets 6, no one has a majority (216/434 is not enough for McCarthy).
But if McCarthy gets 216, Jeffries 212, and 6 people don't vote (or vote "present"), McCarthy wins (216/228 is a majority). 5/N

With 6 non-voters plus McEachin's seat empty, the denominator becomes 228, and the votes needed becomes 215. 6/N

The general formula is this: if all 212 Dems vote Jeffries (likely) a GOP winner needs 213 hard yes votes from Republicans + any combination of 5 additional ballots out of the last 9, where a hard yes is a full ballot and a "present" or non-vote is 1/2 of a ballot. 7/N

You need the hard 213 because you have to beat the Dem candidate, and then you need the other combo of hard yes votes and non-votes (or "present" votes) in order to get to a full majority of those voting. 8/N

Example. 1st ballot, McCarthy gets 215, Jeffries gets 212, and 7 GOP vote for Biggs. McCarthy does not have enough (215/434).
2nd ballot, McC gets 2 Biggs votes to switch and 2 more to vote "present." So 217 McC, 212 Jeffries, 3 Biggs, 2 present. That's enough (217/232). 9/N

Note that you only are helped if the non-voters or present-voters come from outside your supporters. It doesn't do McCarthy any good for his allies to not vote or vote present. That would reduce the denominator, but also his numerator. 10/N

Switching people to not voting (or voting "present") helps if they aren't in your YES coalition. So that's either the GOP rebels, or the Dems. 11/N

It's absolutely true Dems could sit out vote and aid McC. Hard to see why they would politically; it could also backfire if it pushed GOP members-elect into opposing to him. Also not clear how to functionally run House if you get Speakership w/o working party majority. 12/N

Ok. That's the basics of the math. Here's my general cheat sheet on the Speakership election procedures, the thread has lots of links to other discussions and resources. Enjoy. /END

Here is the original tweet, in case you want to click on the documents in the last tweet.

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
After two votes Kevin McCarthy doesn't have the votes. First time in 100 years a Speaker hasn't been elected on the first vote. What a massive embarrassment for the Republican Party, who are showing they don't have what it takes to govern, or to put the American people above their petty infighting.

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
The Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert kooks are the ones doing this.

Now tell me that Gaetz isn't all out for himself. He'd rather the Democratic nominee Hakeem Jeffries be speaker than have to compromise with fellow Republicans.

Are you embarrassed yet, wingnuts?

OP

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
Bwahahahahahaha!!!!!!

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
This is what I have been saying since election day - retiring Republican Fred Upton for Speaker. He's 4th in seniority, and if all the Democrats vote for him they need just 5 moderate Republican votes.

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
I would love to know.

OP

### Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Matt Gaetz wanted to know if Democrats would bail out the would-be Republican speaker. Not a chance, she told him.​

OPPONENTS OF Rep. Kevin McCarthyâ€™s bid for the House speakership are digging in after a tense discussion on the House floor between Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
The pairâ€™s conspicuous exchange in the back of the chamber on the first day of the 118th Congress was caught on C-SPAN â€” and noted by many members in the building. Thanks to Gaetz and his far-right allies, McCarthy, a California Republican, failed to win the speakership on the first round of voting.

#### https://theintercept.com/2022/12/29/dhs-buildings-security-employees/​

Gaetz told Ocasio-Cortez that McCarthy has been telling Republicans that heâ€™ll be able to cut a deal with Democrats to vote present, enabling him to win a majority of those present and voting, according to Ocasio-Cortez. She told Gaetz that wasnâ€™t happening, and also double-checked with Democratic party leadership, confirming thereâ€™d be no side deal.

#### 22lcidw

##### Diamond Member
I would love to know.

Tell us why the ghettos are still here. You should know. My grandchildren will not be raped your evil.

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
I love seeing all these insurrectionists and AOC haters going to her.

OP

Who was it?

OP

OP

Nice troll, Ted.

#### 22lcidw

##### Diamond Member
Machismo men retiring with pensions and social security will not give that up.

#### marvin martian

##### Diamond Member
THE QANON CAUCUS IS KICKIN' ASS BRO

Wait until the investigations into the crimes of your cult start.

OP

BWK
OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member
You know this is true!

OP

#### Synthaholic

##### Diamond Member

The former guy will fuck over anybody at any time.

OP

Replies
96
Views
2K
Replies
18
Views
345
Replies
72
Views
2K
Replies
50
Views
1K
Replies
6
Views
303

Replies
77
Views
452
Replies
635
Views
3K
Replies
252
Views
1K
Replies
76
Views
776
Replies
6
Views
15