This is excellent information that I never knew before, about how Speaker votes count.
18m • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I'm seeing some confusion over the Speakership math. Here I'll do the bare-bones procedural explanation, stripped down to just the math. (As always, the House is in control of its rules and practices, and can adjust them by resolution or by overturning precedents). 1/N
First, what you need to win. Under current rule and precedents, the Speaker is elected by "a majority of Members-Elect, voting by surname, a quorum being present."
You do *not* need 218. You need a complete majority of those who vote for someone by name. 2/N
Right now, there are 434 Members-elect (recall that Rep. McEachin sadly passed away last month). If every Member-elect votes for a candidate by name, you will need 218, since 217/434 is *not* a majority, but 218/434 is a majority. 3/N
Members who choose not to vote (or who vote "present") do not count in the total. The upshot is that this reduces the denominator of the equation. For everyone two members who do not vote (or who vote "present"), it takes one less vote to win. 4/N
Example. if McCarthy gets 216 votes, Jeffries gets 212, and Biggs gets 6, no one has a majority (216/434 is not enough for McCarthy).
But if McCarthy gets 216, Jeffries 212, and 6 people don't vote (or vote "present"), McCarthy wins (216/228 is a majority). 5/N
With 6 non-voters plus McEachin's seat empty, the denominator becomes 228, and the votes needed becomes 215. 6/N
The general formula is this: if all 212 Dems vote Jeffries (likely) a GOP winner needs 213 hard yes votes from Republicans + any combination of 5 additional ballots out of the last 9, where a hard yes is a full ballot and a "present" or non-vote is 1/2 of a ballot. 7/N
You need the hard 213 because you have to beat the Dem candidate, and then you need the other combo of hard yes votes and non-votes (or "present" votes) in order to get to a full majority of those voting. 8/N
Example. 1st ballot, McCarthy gets 215, Jeffries gets 212, and 7 GOP vote for Biggs. McCarthy does not have enough (215/434).
2nd ballot, McC gets 2 Biggs votes to switch and 2 more to vote "present." So 217 McC, 212 Jeffries, 3 Biggs, 2 present. That's enough (217/232). 9/N
Note that you only are helped if the non-voters or present-voters come from outside your supporters. It doesn't do McCarthy any good for his allies to not vote or vote present. That would reduce the denominator, but also his numerator. 10/N
Switching people to not voting (or voting "present") helps if they aren't in your YES coalition. So that's either the GOP rebels, or the Dems. 11/N
It's absolutely true Dems could sit out vote and aid McC. Hard to see why they would politically; it could also backfire if it pushed GOP members-elect into opposing to him. Also not clear how to functionally run House if you get Speakership w/o working party majority. 12/N
Ok. That's the basics of the math. Here's my general cheat sheet on the Speakership election procedures, the thread has lots of links to other discussions and resources. Enjoy. /END
Here is the original tweet, in case you want to click on the documents in the last tweet.
Matt Glassman
18m • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I'm seeing some confusion over the Speakership math. Here I'll do the bare-bones procedural explanation, stripped down to just the math. (As always, the House is in control of its rules and practices, and can adjust them by resolution or by overturning precedents). 1/N
First, what you need to win. Under current rule and precedents, the Speaker is elected by "a majority of Members-Elect, voting by surname, a quorum being present."
You do *not* need 218. You need a complete majority of those who vote for someone by name. 2/N
Right now, there are 434 Members-elect (recall that Rep. McEachin sadly passed away last month). If every Member-elect votes for a candidate by name, you will need 218, since 217/434 is *not* a majority, but 218/434 is a majority. 3/N
Members who choose not to vote (or who vote "present") do not count in the total. The upshot is that this reduces the denominator of the equation. For everyone two members who do not vote (or who vote "present"), it takes one less vote to win. 4/N
Example. if McCarthy gets 216 votes, Jeffries gets 212, and Biggs gets 6, no one has a majority (216/434 is not enough for McCarthy).
But if McCarthy gets 216, Jeffries 212, and 6 people don't vote (or vote "present"), McCarthy wins (216/228 is a majority). 5/N
With 6 non-voters plus McEachin's seat empty, the denominator becomes 228, and the votes needed becomes 215. 6/N
The general formula is this: if all 212 Dems vote Jeffries (likely) a GOP winner needs 213 hard yes votes from Republicans + any combination of 5 additional ballots out of the last 9, where a hard yes is a full ballot and a "present" or non-vote is 1/2 of a ballot. 7/N
You need the hard 213 because you have to beat the Dem candidate, and then you need the other combo of hard yes votes and non-votes (or "present" votes) in order to get to a full majority of those voting. 8/N
Example. 1st ballot, McCarthy gets 215, Jeffries gets 212, and 7 GOP vote for Biggs. McCarthy does not have enough (215/434).
2nd ballot, McC gets 2 Biggs votes to switch and 2 more to vote "present." So 217 McC, 212 Jeffries, 3 Biggs, 2 present. That's enough (217/232). 9/N
Note that you only are helped if the non-voters or present-voters come from outside your supporters. It doesn't do McCarthy any good for his allies to not vote or vote present. That would reduce the denominator, but also his numerator. 10/N
Switching people to not voting (or voting "present") helps if they aren't in your YES coalition. So that's either the GOP rebels, or the Dems. 11/N
It's absolutely true Dems could sit out vote and aid McC. Hard to see why they would politically; it could also backfire if it pushed GOP members-elect into opposing to him. Also not clear how to functionally run House if you get Speakership w/o working party majority. 12/N
Ok. That's the basics of the math. Here's my general cheat sheet on the Speakership election procedures, the thread has lots of links to other discussions and resources. Enjoy. /END
Here is the original tweet, in case you want to click on the documents in the last tweet.
