skews13
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- Mar 18, 2017
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As former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway once suggested, if you don't like the facts, just create alternative facts. That's exactly what Republicans and their pollsters are doing in several of this cycle's most hotly contested races.
Take Georgia, for instance—until about Oct. 21 or 22, Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock had been holding a pretty steady 3- to 4-point lead during October over his GOP rival Herschel Walker in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate. Then the gap suddenly narrowed to about 1 point in the final week of October, Warnock 46.7% - Walker 45.4%.
What exactly happened to nudge Walker into contention to take the lead? A whole bunch of GOP-slanted polls, that's what.
Of the seven aggregate polls taken since Oct. 21, five of them were conducted by either GOP-aligned groups or pollsters that use friendly GOP modeling: Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Moore Information (Walker poll), co/efficient, and InsiderAdvantage. All of them put Walker in the lead by anywhere from 2 to 5 points.
The two other polls—one conducted by The New York Times/Siena College and the other for the Atlanta-Journal Constitution—found that Warnock had a 3-point advantage and the two candidates were tied, respectively.
Don't pay any attention to the noise. Continue the turn out. Polls don't decide elections. Voters do.
Take Georgia, for instance—until about Oct. 21 or 22, Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock had been holding a pretty steady 3- to 4-point lead during October over his GOP rival Herschel Walker in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate. Then the gap suddenly narrowed to about 1 point in the final week of October, Warnock 46.7% - Walker 45.4%.
What exactly happened to nudge Walker into contention to take the lead? A whole bunch of GOP-slanted polls, that's what.
Of the seven aggregate polls taken since Oct. 21, five of them were conducted by either GOP-aligned groups or pollsters that use friendly GOP modeling: Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Moore Information (Walker poll), co/efficient, and InsiderAdvantage. All of them put Walker in the lead by anywhere from 2 to 5 points.
The two other polls—one conducted by The New York Times/Siena College and the other for the Atlanta-Journal Constitution—found that Warnock had a 3-point advantage and the two candidates were tied, respectively.
Republicans flood the zone with pro-GOP polls, bending models in their direction
As former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway once suggested, if you don't like the facts, just create alternative facts. That's exactly what Republicans and their pollsters are doing in several of this cycle's most hotly contested races. Take Georgia, for...
www.dailykos.com
Don't pay any attention to the noise. Continue the turn out. Polls don't decide elections. Voters do.
