Support for the idea that polls are constantly heavily skewed and worthless?

[shockedcanadian]

I was reading this article yesterday and one of the posters said that this poll had 22% College educated, when the U.S National number is 5%, 12% Graduate degrees, when the National number is 1%.

Todays top comment, is from this guy: "Check out the party affiliation of respondents and you will know why Biden is up 14%. That happens when you primarily poll individuals that lean toward the Democratic party, which the pollsters did in this instance. Despite Republicans having a +2% advantage nationally, this poll had a +9% advantage for the Democrats. Poll is meaningless unless it reflects breakdown of expected voters by party."

This, on top of the fact that many Trump supporters don't even respond, or, just lie. So, media are taking the same approach as they did with Hillary, lie, exaggerate, provide skewed polls that are not reflective.

The question is, why do they do this? What are they trying to convince citizens of, so as to not be surprised about a particular result even as you see the vast difference in enthusiasm?

I'm a data guy, I work through datasets myself and even build models on some of the data, be it from Kaggle, or my own web scraping efforts. Even if they need to do so in the title, they should state, "we polled 7% more Dems than GOP.

They are presenting an NBS/WSJ poll as if it is the Gospel. On Fox News...


Biden up 14 points on Trump following chaotic debate, new poll indicates

A new poll shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a 14 point lead nationally over President Trump, following the first presidential debate last week.


The survey, which was conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, was taken between Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 and covered 800 registered voters. It had a margin of error of around 3.5 percent.

The results showed 53 percent of respondents said they'd vote for the former vice president, compared to 39 percent for Trump.

The president has maintained, however, that polling and pundit analysis of his White House chances contain overt bias and was part of the reason why he defeated Hillary Clinton, despite most experts' predictions to the contrary.

 

[TemplarKormac]

I'm not one to get conspiratorial... but I agree. People are being shamed into not expressing who they support or are outright lying about it. The atmosphere is so hyperpartisan that supporting Trump these days will bring down retribution and ruin on someone.

Safe it to say, if Trump wins, I will never trust polls again. Ever.

 

[Oddball]

I remember the polls in 2012, showing Obama ahead of Romney anywhere from 7-10 points throughout the campaign, to then have the final vote end up at a four point margin....I also remember people being mocked in for their suspicions that the polling was skewed toward Obama and democrats, only for us to find out in the end that it was.

Then came 2016.

Either their models are off terribly and they're not interested in adjusting them accordingly, or they're playing an active role in carrying the water for the left.

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

I went through this yesterday and there was all kinds of bullshit. I don't want to go over it again today but there were only 5% latinos polled compared to 12% Blacks.

Latinos are polling much higher for Trump this time.

 

[RodISHI]

A lot of us won't participate in their polls either.

 

[Toro]

I was reading this article yesterday and one of the posters said that this poll had 22% College educated, when the U.S National number is 5%, 12% Graduate degrees, when the National number is 1%.

Todays top comment, is from this guy: "Check out the party affiliation of respondents and you will know why Biden is up 14%. That happens when you primarily poll individuals that lean toward the Democratic party, which the pollsters did in this instance. Despite Republicans having a +2% advantage nationally, this poll had a +9% advantage for the Democrats. Poll is meaningless unless it reflects breakdown of expected voters by party."

This, on top of the fact that many Trump supporters don't even respond, or, just lie. So, they are taking the same approach as they did with Hillary, lie, exaggerate, provide skewed polls that are not reflective.

The question is, why do they do this? What are they trying to convince citizens of, so as to not be surprised about a particular result even as you see the vast difference in enthusiasm?

I'm a data guy, I work through datasets myself and even build models on some of the data, be it from Kaggle, or my own web scraping efforts. Even if they need to do so in the title, they should state, "we polled 7% more Dems than GOP.

They are presenting an NBS/WSJ poll as if it is the Gospel. On Fox News...


Biden up 14 points on Trump following chaotic debate, new poll indicates

A new poll shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a 14 point lead nationally over President Trump, following the first presidential debate last week.


The survey, which was conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, was taken between Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 and covered 800 registered voters. It had a margin of error of around 3.5 percent.

The results showed 53 percent of respondents said they'd vote for the former vice president, compared to 39 percent for Trump.

The president has maintained, however, that polling and pundit analysis of his White House chances contain overt bias and was part of the reason why he defeated Hillary Clinton, despite most experts' predictions to the contrary.

A third of the population has a college degree.

Educational attainment in the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So if the poll only had 22%, then they are undercounting college educated voters.

 

[LiberalsLIE]

I'm not one to get conspiratorial... but I agree. People are being shamed into not expressing who they support or are outright lying about it........

studies have been done. Its a FACT.

 

[Hellokitty]

Polls are about as trust worth as fact checks...

 

[Toro]

I went through this yesterday and there was all kinds of bullshit. I don't want to go over it again today but there were only 5% latinos polled compared to 12% Blacks.

Latinos are polling much higher for Trump this time.

Which poll is that?

The WSJ poll had 10% Hispanics.

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJNBC-Poll-Early-October-2020.pdf

 

[Rambunctious]

What I don't get is how stupid must the pollsters think we are?....NBC released a poll showing Biden 14 points ahead of Trump....only a completely out of touch company would think the people will fall for that...we are entering the discourage the Trump voter part of the media's campaign against Trump...they will stick with this tactic until about a week away from election day....but they know many are voting now by mail so we will be bombarded with negative poll results for Trump....

 

[task0778]

I'm not one to get conspiratorial... but I agree. People are being shamed into not expressing who they support or are outright lying about it. The atmosphere is so hyperpartisan that supporting Trump these days will bring down retribution and ruin on someone.

Safe it to say, if Trump wins, I will never trust polls again. Ever.

I'm not so sure it's about being shamed as much as being intimidated or actually afraid to express what they really think, at last in some parts of the country. And that's pretty scary when you think about it, a big part of tyrannical gov'ts getting into power and keeping it is the control of the media, and we're getting close to that are we not?

That said, Just because the polls were so wrong the last time doesn't mean they will be just as wrong this time. I am concerned that some of the people who voted for Trump the last time will not do so this time because his persona has turned them off so to speak. There are quite a few people who don't pay a lot of attention to the news of the day, particularly politics. And some wonder considering how dirty and nasty it is; who can you believe any more? So in many cases it comes down to your gut feeling, and Joe Biden is more appealing than Hillary Clinton was. And they might not realize what is on the line here if the democrats get back into power.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The idea that polls are purposely skewed towards the Democrats is nothing more than a right wing conspiracy theory.

 

[shockedcanadian]

The biggest flaw to me, is location. It's always a "National Poll". You are an Electoral College, though some have suggested that will only be true until a Dem next wins then it will go to popular vote.

So, let's say you poll 30% Independents, but 60% of those Independents are from California while 2% are from Texas. I am willing to blindly wager that it makes a difference on expected outcome.

 

[Oddball]

What I don't get is how stupid must the pollsters think we are?....NBC released a poll showing Biden 14 points ahead of Trump....only a completely out of touch company would think the people will fall for that...we are entering the discourage the Trump voter part of the media's campaign against Trump...they will stick with this tactic until about a week away from election day....but they know many are voting now by mail so we will be bombarded with negative poll results for Trump....

they will stick with this tactic until about a week away from election day...

Though this has been the pattern in days gone by, I'm not so certain this time around.

The lamer media has no credibility to lose in the first place, and I think they know it, so what would prevent them from carrying purposefully jacked poll numbers right up to election day?

 

[Rambunctious]

The idea that polls are purposely skewed towards the Democrats is nothing more than a right wing conspiracy theory.

You keep saying that no matter how much evidence to the contrary we present to you.....we have presented videos of people admitting fraud and yet here you sit....stubborn and ignorant.....

 

[Rambunctious]

Though this has been the pattern in days gone by, I'm not so certain this time around.

The lamer media has no credibility to lose in the first place, and I think they know it, so what would prevent them from carrying purposefully jacked poll numbers right up to election day?

Maybe....we will see...but so far this morning its all about them trying to discourage the on going mail in vote....

 

[shockedcanadian]

What I don't get is how stupid must the pollsters think we are?....NBC released a poll showing Biden 14 points ahead of Trump....only a completely out of touch company would think the people will fall for that...we are entering the discourage the Trump voter part of the media's campaign against Trump...they will stick with this tactic until about a week away from election day....but they know many are voting now by mail so we will be bombarded with negative poll results for Trump....

they will stick with this tactic until about a week away from election day...

Though this has been the pattern in days gone by, I'm not so certain this time around.

The lamer media has no credibility to lose in the first place, and I think they know it, so what would prevent them from carrying purposefully jacked poll numbers right up to election day?

I think Weasel Wallaces questions during the debate exposed Fox News. Not surprisingly. They are basically only most popular for the Big Three at night, and, some watch The Five I suppose. I'm simplifying it of course, no offense to those who watch it 24/7. I don't think Wallace is the face of Fox, yet, he is the guy presenting the debate questions.

What an odd choice really. Wouldn't a biased, but yet, consciously objective person like Laura Ingraham have been a better choice? I saw her interview Trump and she didn't just throw softballs, there were some direct, tough and challenging questions. She would have been the perfect moderator. Instead they send in a guy who only has a job because of his dad.

Roger Ailes obviously ran a different ship than say, one that would have Paul Ryan on it's Board.

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

I went through this yesterday and there was all kinds of bullshit. I don't want to go over it again today but there were only 5% latinos polled compared to 12% Blacks.

Latinos are polling much higher for Trump this time.

Which poll is that?

The WSJ poll had 10% Hispanics.

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJNBC-Poll-Early-October-2020.pdf

Whites 76
Blacks 12
Asian 3
Other 3
Hispanic 5

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

 

[Oddball]

The idea that polls are purposely skewed towards the Democrats is nothing more than a right wing conspiracy theory.

Then go ahead and 'splain to us all how they're almost always off the mark, and off in favor of one party.

Bad models can account for the discrepancies of the past...But when the same "errors" keep swinging in the same direction, the perception that something more is afoot is inescapable.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The idea that polls are purposely skewed towards the Democrats is nothing more than a right wing conspiracy theory.

You keep saying that no matter how much evidence to the contrary we present to you.....we have presented videos of people admitting fraud and yet here you sit....stubborn and ignorant.....

And you keep insisting it no matter how much evidence you are presented. The 2018 polls were dead on for the midterms. They said you'd lose 40 House seats and you lost 41. The 2016 polls were correct for the popular vote and were within the margin of error for the EC. The and 2010 and 2014 polls accurately showed the Republicans were going to beat the Democrats' asses. The 2012 polls predicted Obama would win and he did.