Recovery hopes dim a bit on latest economic reports

[Neubarth]

]Recovery hopes dim a bit on latest economic reports. Dim a bit is a tremendous understatement.

The headlines and brief stories below show the economic reports that have come out in the last week. Not one economic news item shows any real positive numbers for the economy. Everything is NEGATIVE!!!


Recovery hopes dim a bit on latest economic reports
12:50 PM, June 15, 2009 LA Times

Some economic green shoots are showing signs of wilting, giving Wall Street an excuse to take profits from the spring stock market surge.

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A Federal Reserve index of manufacturing activity in the New York region showed a decline this month from May levels, the Fed said today. The index came in at minus 9.41, compared with minus 4.55 in May. The trend had been improving in April and May, after a horrendous reading of minus 38.23 in March.
A reading below zero indicates manufacturing in the region is contracting.

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Jun 16, 2009, 9:15 a.m. EST
Industrial production slumps 1.1% in May

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial output tumbled 1.1% in May, led by big drops in motor vehicles, mining and high-technology products, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The decrease was a bit worse than forecasts of a 1% drop, particularly after April's output was revised lower to a decrease of 0.7% from 0.5% reported earlier. Output is down 13.4% in the past year, the largest year-over-year decline since 1946. Output has fallen in 16 of the past 17 months since the recession began in December 2007. Since that month, industrial output is down 14.8%. Capacity utilization in industry fell to a record-low 68.3%. In manufacturing alone, capacity utilization fell to a record-low 65%.

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Jobless benefit rolls drop sharply to nearly 6.7M
WASHINGTON (AP) — The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls dropped for the first time since early January, the government said Thursday, while new claims for benefits jumped to 608,000.

The only problem with this report is that most of the people supposedly NOT collecting benefits fell off of the benefits program because they ran out of benefits or extended benefits.

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The Philadelphia Fed said East Coast manufacturing and production firms reported improved numbers for June in terms of new orders, production activity and shipments.

LA Times
The manufacturers surveyed by the Philly Fed did, however, report continued cuts in jobs and work hours.
The U.S. manufacturing industry — ranging from automakers in the Rust Belt, to electronics and aviation firms in Western states such as Arizona — have been pinched by the pullback in business and consumer spending, the credit crunch and reeling real estate markets.
The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index came in at minus 2.2

Negative numbers show that the economy is contracting. In this case it is contracting at 2.2, but nobody really knows what that means.

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If you think we have problems, Europe just reported that their Industrial Production decreased 27% last month. That was greater than anything in the Great Depression.

 

[Paulie]

Man Neubarth, I'm quite the bear, but I think you definitely have me beat.

To be fair, you can't necessarily compare productivity stats today with stats from the GD. Just the exponentially higher amount of workers today ALONE, is enough to discredit such comparisons. What's the difference between 27% today and 27% back then? Significant to say the least.

It's almost the same kind of discrepancy as the disparity in price values from then and now when accounting for inflation.

We're experiencing deflation, and these kinds of negative statistics come with the territory. If we'd just leave things along and let this play out, rather than throw multiple trillions of dollars at it, we might just get through it easier and quicker. Let these kinds of corrections happen, they're NECESSARY.

 

[Neubarth]

An Industrial Production collapse of 27% in one month outdid any number from the Great Depression (GD). The world is still in collapse mode. Unemployment is out of control if you look at the initial claims numbers every week.

Let this play out? Yea, I guess so. Nothing we have done so far appears to be working.

 

[sealybobo]

Hey guys. Just wanted to show you this article and say something about it:

Experts: Recession set to end this year
But, any U.S. recovery will be weak due to anemic markets and shrunken consumer wealth.

Experts: U.S. recession to bottom out this year - Economy in Turmoil- msnbc.com

Here's my thought. Right wingers applauded in 2005-2007 when profits were up and wages were going down. And they said Big 3 auto workers made too much money. And the recession has brought wages down.

So now we see our recovery from this recession is going to be weak at best because our WEALTH is less. So we'll be buying less boats, cars, toys, homes, eating out, tv's, vcr's, dvd's, cellphones, vacations, etc.

Time to start bringing jobs back home, fix nafta, kick illegals out and give employees the option to organize.

When we have more jobs than we do people, wages go up. When we have the opposite, wages go down.

And fuck cheap goods. You'll be able to pay more because you have a good paying job.

And fuck isolationism and protectionism. Every country does this to an extent. Trust me, the corporations that own our country won't let that happen. They have pushed us as much as they can. Now its time to push back. And trust me, they'll push back. They have all the lobbyists. And, they have guys like Harry Dresden & Gunny to argue for them.

 

[Lycurgus]

SeaBoob, you must be a ACORN employee. No one else could be so ignorant and have such a poor me, you owe me something attitude. While wannabe's like you sit around whining, the rest of us progress and succeed.