Has Powell and Co ushered in a possible recession?

[Mac1958]

Ride it through, look for good buys....as with all recessions......

And, bingo.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Correct. The Fed and the post COVID supply chain shock being the proximate cause of inflation.........not Biden.

Biden's inflationary mega spending projects and the Fed keeping rates too low for too long
to help Biden. And then keeping up QE.

 

[WEATHER53]

I’ve been saying for over a year that he is a Fauci type. Punitive by nature and trying to control that which he can’t. I still can’t find where it’s their legally obligated mission to keep inflation at 2%. Much like Covid, they made that up.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

Orange man and the cryptkeeper were both to blame for inflation. They dropped 5 trillion covid trinkets to the public. It was a massive sugar high and then the nosedive.

 

[berg80]

I did not see the magnitude of this selloff coming but even I took action with my own portfolio when I kept hearing about slowing consumer spending. The main driver of the US economy. So I sold some things and shorted two of the major index ETF's, the DIA and QQQ. The QQQ, representing tech stocks, is now down well over 10%. Deflation is now the larger concern. The Fed has blown it again.

Dow futures drop 800 points, S&P futures lose 3% as global market sell-off intensifies: Live updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[Mac1958]

The Fed was late as hell to increase interest rates when inflation hit, and now they're in danger of doing the opposite.

We'll see, I guess.

 

[berg80]

The Fed was late as hell to increase interest rates when inflation hit, and now they're in danger of doing the opposite.

We'll see, I guess.

They rely on backward looking data to make their decisions and thus are always late with policy shifts. Powell was on the fence about a 0.25% cut in Sept. They should cut by 0.75% before the next scheduled meeting but won't.

 

[Mac1958]

They rely on backward looking data to make their decisions and thus are always late with policy shifts. Powell was on the fence about a 0.25% cut in Sept. They should cut by 0.50% before the next scheduled meeting but won't.

They've again painted themselves into a corner. If they do a special cut, it will look like panic. They should have cut 25bps.

 

[LeftofLeft]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

How has Biden Admin been falsely blamed for inflation? He didn’t cause inflation but he certainly made it worse with his spending and increasing regulatory policies.

 

[struth]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

The Harris/Xiden admin is fully to blame for the economic crisis they have caused.

 

[berg80]

The Harris/Xiden admin is fully to blame for the economic crisis they have caused.

I won't embarrass you by asking you to explain yourself.

 

[Mac1958]

I won't embarrass you by asking you to explain yourself.

Nothing demonstrates the Dunning-Kruger Effect more vividly than a Trumpster talking macroeconomics.

 

[struth]

I won't embarrass you by asking you to explain yourself.

They were elected, took office in 2021....inflation skyrocketed.

Their polices.

2024​

3.1​

3.2​

3.5​

3.4​

3.3​

3.0​

Avail. Aug. 14​

​

​

​

​

​

​

2023​

6.4​

6.0​

5.0​

4.9​

4.0​

3.0​

3.2​

3.7​

3.7​

3.2​

3.1​

3.4​

4.1​

2022​

7.5​

7.9​

8.5​

8.3​

8.6​

9.1​

8.5​

8.3​

8.2​

7.7​

7.1​

6.5​

8.0​

2021​

1.4​

1.7​

2.6​

4.2​

5.0​

5.4​

5.4​

5.3​

5.4​

6.2​

6.8​

7.0​

4.7​

 

[berg80]

They rely on backward looking data to make their decisions and thus are always late with policy shifts. Powell was on the fence about a 0.25% cut in Sept. They should cut by 0.75% before the next scheduled meeting but won't.

A respected economist agrees.

Wharton’s Jeremey Siegel on Monday called on the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75 basis points emergency cut in the federal funds rate after Friday’s disappointing jobs report.

In addition, there should be “another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting — and that’s minimum,” Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, said on “Squawk Box” Monday.

“The fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html

 

[berg80]

They were elected, took office in 2021....inflation skyrocketed.

Their polices.

2024​

3.1​

3.2​

3.5​

3.4​

3.3​

3.0​

Avail. Aug. 14​

​

​

​

​

​

​

2023​

6.4​

6.0​

5.0​

4.9​

4.0​

3.0​

3.2​

3.7​

3.7​

3.2​

3.1​

3.4​

4.1​

2022​

7.5​

7.9​

8.5​

8.3​

8.6​

9.1​

8.5​

8.3​

8.2​

7.7​

7.1​

6.5​

8.0​

2021​

1.4​

1.7​

2.6​

4.2​

5.0​

5.4​

5.4​

5.3​

5.4​

6.2​

6.8​

7.0​

4.7​

Look up the meaning of correlation without causation.

 

[struth]

Look up the meaning of correlation without causation.

High inflation and high interest rates are Xiden and Harris's America...that's what this chapter of America will be all about....and now, UE is back on the rise.

Congrats

 

[berg80]

High inflation and high interest rates are Xiden and Harris's America...that's what this chapter of America will be all about....and now, UE is back on the rise.

Congrats

I get it. You're hard wired to blame everything on Biden. Next you'll be blaming him for trump's insurrection because Joe won the election.

 

[struth]

I get it. You're hard wired to blame everything on Biden. Next you'll be blaming him for trump's insurrection because Joe won the election.

To be fair, it's clear he was just a puppet now, there was a time I didn't think he was completely senile, but that long gone. He's clearly just a puppet for the Demafacsit party and their policies.

Harris/Xiden, it makes no difference.

 

[berg80]

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/chi...-if-economy-deteriorates-fed-will-fix-it.html

It's not a matter of if. It's happening in real time.

 

[berg80]

To be fair, it's clear he was just a puppet now, there was a time I didn't think he was completely senile, but that long gone. He's clearly just a puppet for the Demafacsit party and their policies.

Harris/Xiden, it makes no difference.

Joe is more qualified to be prez right now than trump ever was or ever will be.