Has Powell and Co ushered in a possible recession?

[hadit]

Yields on the long bonds dropped precipitously today, a continuation of a decline from their peak following the inflationary spiral caused by the post COVID supply chain shock, when jobless claims came in higher than expected. Consumer oriented companies have been reporting a slowdown in spending for over a month now. Manufacturing ISM came in lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, as fresh data stoked concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-stock Dow dropped 313 points, or nearly 0.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.

Initial jobless claims rose to 249,000 for the week ended in July 27, higher than a Dow Jones forecast of 235,000. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8, adding to a broader picture of slowing economic activity.

That data follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell signaling a September rate is on the table. Yields fell Thursday as investors digested Powell’s comments, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Fed chair Powell says a rate cut is on the table for Sept. Meaning the Fed is once again behind the curve. He has essentially said a recession is acceptable if that's what is necessary to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He'd rather put you out of your job than have you pay a little more for good and services.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

Who will be blamed? Harris.

And why should she not be? She's the de facto head of the Quid Pro Quo administration and the usual suspects have been gleefully proclaiming this to be the Biden economy, so you can't escape it. Will you throw Quid Pro under the bus?

 

[my2¢]

I have thought about this before, but if you have a job and do not think you will lose it, what is the worst part of a recession?

Yeah, if one's finances are stable a recession isn't to be feared. I got my first "career" job in 1976 when inflation throughout the 70's was ridiculous. The annual merit pay increases were really good in those years due to high inflation and in 1978 I took advantage of the pay raise and went job hunting and upped it by another 10%. It was a great time to know COBOL and have data analyst skills so even when the recession hit in 1981, I was able to jump ship again and moved across country for another good pay raise.

 

[Blaster]

The economy is on life support.

 

[sealybobo]

Yields on the long bonds dropped precipitously today, a continuation of a decline from their peak following the inflationary spiral caused by the post COVID supply chain shock, when jobless claims came in higher than expected. Consumer oriented companies have been reporting a slowdown in spending for over a month now. Manufacturing ISM came in lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, as fresh data stoked concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-stock Dow dropped 313 points, or nearly 0.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.

Initial jobless claims rose to 249,000 for the week ended in July 27, higher than a Dow Jones forecast of 235,000. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8, adding to a broader picture of slowing economic activity.

That data follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell signaling a September rate is on the table. Yields fell Thursday as investors digested Powell’s comments, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Fed chair Powell says a rate cut is on the table for Sept. Meaning the Fed is once again behind the curve. He has essentially said a recession is acceptable if that's what is necessary to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He'd rather put you out of your job than have you pay a little more for good and services.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

Who will be blamed? Harris.

You can't blame Powell. But, Trump needs Powell to lower interest rates or Trump's economy is fucked. Maybe he should have considered that first before Trump did what he did earlier this month. This is why Trump is not that smart.

ColonelAngus

 

[Dragonlady]

You can't blame Powell. But, Trump needs Powell to lower interest rates or Trump's economy is fucked. Maybe he should have considered that first before Trump did what he did earlier this month. This is why Trump is not that smart.

ColonelAngus

Trump's economy is fucked regardless of what Powell does.

Trump's on-again/off-again chaos on tariffs have thrown everything in your economy into chaos. Powell said it too: He's waiting for clarity.

Trump has to stop fucking around, and playing stupid games with tariffs. The HOUSE needs to bitch slap Trump into next week and cancel his "National Emergency", and take back the power of the purse, because if they don't, you're going to see a Blue Wave, that will wipe out Republicans.

Trump is under water with the American people on EVERYTHING, including immigration. They voted to deport criminals - legally. They didn't vote for going into public schools and terrorizing children. They didn't vote for picking people up off the streets and putting them on planes with no due process.

They certainly didn't vote for people who have never been arrested or charge with a crime, anywhere, to be shipped off to some torture prison in El Salvador.

They didn't vote for DOGE to fire veterans. Or wreck Social Security. They voted for LOWER prices at the Supermarket, not higher prices on everything.

They voted for law and order, although thinking that they'd find it with a convicted felon, shows a lack of intelligence by your voters that is astounding.

 

[sealybobo]

Trump's economy is fucked regardless of what Powell does.

Trump's on-again/off-again chaos on tariffs have thrown everything in your economy into chaos. Powell said it too: He's waiting for clarity.

Trump has to stop fucking around, and playing stupid games with tariffs. The HOUSE needs to bitch slap Trump into next week and cancel his "National Emergency", and take back the power of the purse, because if they don't, you're going to see a Blue Wave, that will wipe out Republicans.

Trump is under water with the American people on EVERYTHING, including immigration. They voted to deport criminals - legally. They didn't vote for going into public schools and terrorizing children. They didn't vote for picking people up off the streets and putting them on planes with no due process.

They certainly didn't vote for people who have never been arrested or charge with a crime, anywhere, to be shipped off to some torture prison in El Salvador.

They didn't vote for DOGE to fire veterans. Or wreck Social Security. They voted for LOWER prices at the Supermarket, not higher prices on everything.

They voted for law and order, although thinking that they'd find it with a convicted felon, shows a lack of intelligence by your voters that is astounding.

Republicans have been just who we said they would be. Project 2025 in full display. And they're defending it all.

Why isn't Pete Hegseth fired yet?

Get that guy back from El Salvidor

Stop attacking Harvard and PBS. Sorry they are too liberal for your liking.

 

[Dragonlady]

Republicans have been just who we said they would be. Project 2025 in full display. And they're defending it all.

Why isn't Pete Hegseth fired yet?

Get that guy back from El Salvidor

Stop attacking Harvard and PBS. Sorry they are too liberal for your liking.

They're AHEAD of schedule on Project 2025. Wait until Americans are told that the only way to get production jobs back is to eliminate the minimum wage.

Trump is personally negotiating with the Japanese on their trade deal, while back home, Japan is quietly dumping Treasury Bonds.

Pete Hegseth isn't fired because Trump was embarrassed by the revolving door at the White House in his last administration, with 25% of staffers/cabinet members fired or quit in the first year alone. Two of Hegseth's deputies and former long time friends were fired instead.

Trump seems willing to stake his entire administration on keeping this ONE GUY from getting justice, and Trump is doing this to himself. Instead of being declared a "hero" for correcting this mistake by over zealous staffers, Trump is prepared to stake the rest of his administration on the outcome of a very, very dumb move, using the wrong victim.

Less than 10% of Americans want this man left in El Salvador. For Trump, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound.

 

[sealybobo]

They're AHEAD of schedule on Project 2025. Wait until Americans are told that the only way to get production jobs back is to eliminate the minimum wage.

Trump is personally negotiating with the Japanese on their trade deal, while back home, Japan is quietly dumping Treasury Bonds.

Pete Hegseth isn't fired because Trump was embarrassed by the revolving door at the White House in his last administration, with 25% of staffers/cabinet members fired or quit in the first year alone. Two of Hegseth's deputies and former long time friends were fired instead.

Trump seems willing to stake his entire administration on keeping this ONE GUY from getting justice, and Trump is doing this to himself. Instead of being declared a "hero" for correcting this mistake by over zealous staffers, Trump is prepared to stake the rest of his administration on the outcome of a very, very dumb move, using the wrong victim.

Less than 10% of Americans want this man left in El Salvador. For Trump, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound.

I predict in a week or two Trump gets the guy back and turns himself into the hero.

This is so WWE. Heal turning Face. LOL.

 

[Dragonlady]

I predict in a week or two Trump gets the guy back and turns himself into the hero.

This is so WWE. Heal turning Face. LOL.

Seriously. Today when he was pressed on the issue by the press, he said that it was "up to the lawyers". Which is such bullshit. One word from Trump and that man would be on a plane within the hour. Someone should tell him when he says stuff like that, he sounds very weak and not in control.

But yeah, my first thought was, he's getting ready to step in, save the day, and throw some groveling functionary under the bus for "going rogue" and letting this happen.

 

[Couchpotato]

Seriously. Today when he was pressed on the issue by the press, he said that it was "up to the lawyers". Which is such bullshit. One word from Trump and that man would be on a plane within the hour. Someone should tell him when he says stuff like that, he sounds very weak and not in control.

But yeah, my first thought was, he's getting ready to step in, save the day, and throw some groveling functionary under the bus for "going rogue" and letting this happen.

I'll play El Salvador and you play the entire US government. Whomever you want to be. Let's play this out real quick.

 

[sealybobo]

Seriously. Today when he was pressed on the issue by the press, he said that it was "up to the lawyers". Which is such bullshit. One word from Trump and that man would be on a plane within the hour. Someone should tell him when he says stuff like that, he sounds very weak and not in control.

But yeah, my first thought was, he's getting ready to step in, save the day, and throw some groveling functionary under the bus for "going rogue" and letting this happen.

The Supreme Court could send Federal Marshals to go save the guy too. And that would show Trump he isn't king.

 

[Couchpotato]

The Supreme Court could send Federal Marshals to go save the guy too. And that would show Trump he isn't king.

Yeah we should definitely invade a sovereign nation and kidnap one of their citizens…..

 

[Couchpotato]

The Supreme Court could send Federal Marshals to go save the guy too. And that would show Trump he isn't king.

Oh and since when did US Marshalls have jurisdiction outside the US and when did the SCOTUS get the power to task them to do anything?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

The economy is on life support.

Are you an idiot. No, it is not.

 

[Blaster]

Are you an idiot. No, it is not.

You should show more respect for me and my superior IQ.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

You should show more respect for me and my superior IQ.

Thank you. I needed a laugh right then.

 

[sealybobo]

Oh and since when did US Marshalls have jurisdiction outside the US and when did the SCOTUS get the power to task them to do anything?

Whatever. So it's going to be Powell's fault if we go into a recession? Man. Trump's never to blame. Ever notice that? Do what he says and if you don't, it's your fault.

Pussies. You cried the interest rates were too low on Obama's watch when he was getting us out of Bush's recession. Interest rates are high to fix inflation. Trump wants to lower interest rates? That'll raise inflation.

Trump doesn't know what he's doing.

 

[Couchpotato]

Whatever. So it's going to be Powell's fault if we go into a recession? Man. Trump's never to blame. Ever notice that? Do what he says and if you don't, it's your fault.

Pussies. You cried the interest rates were too low on Obama's watch when he was getting us out of Bush's recession. Interest rates are high to fix inflation. Trump wants to lower interest rates? That'll raise inflation.

Trump doesn't know what he's doing.

You're going to have to explain what you advocating for US Marshalls to be illegally tasked by SCOTUS to illegally invade a sovereign nation and kidnap one of their citizens and bring him back to the US has to do with the economy.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

You're going to have to explain what you advocating for US Marshalls to be illegally tasked by SCOTUS to illegally invade a sovereign nation and kidnap one of their citizens and bring him back to the US has to do with the economy.

Who said that? Only you, podjo.

 

[Couchpotato]

Who said that? Only you, podjo.

Are you retarded?