Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[JimH52]

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I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

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True, and I am sure those calculations are added to the equation. Nate now has Obama with a 52.9% chance of winning Virginia. If he wins Virginia and Ohio, Willard's other options are very limited. Here is another site:

ElectoralVote

Real Clear Politics still has Willlard with a slight lead in EV count. I expect that will also change in the next couple days. Its about math and science...

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

 

[Mac1958]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

I'd love to know what has you so confident. I was listening to righty Hugh Hewitt a couple of days ago, and he was already taking victory laps, wondering if it will be a Romney landslide.

What is it about the numbers that makes you so sure? Intensity? I don't see how it could be anything else.

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[Old Rocks]

President Obama 281 Governor Romney 257

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Intrade puts it at 59% to 41% in the Presidents favor

Intrade - Home

 

[Inthemiddle]

no doubt romney voters are more likely to come out on election day

Well that's the interesting thing....the elderly tend to rely on early voting alot. That's an important part of the GOP base. On the other hand, GOP supporters are more likely to react to opposition leads early, by getting out to vote when they might not have done so otherwise.

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

I'd love to know what has you so confident. I was listening to righty Hugh Hewitt a couple of days ago, and he was already taking victory laps, wondering if it will be a Romney landslide.

What is it about the numbers that makes you so sure? Intensity? I don't see how it could be anything else.

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Voter enthusiasm.. registered voters who actually turn out.. All trends show Romney moving up in every single swing state.. Obama has ruined the economy and destroyed foreign policy, TWO MAJOR SCANDALS, FAST N FURIOUS, BENGHAZI..

It's a lovely day!

 

[JimH52]

Of Course we are

Stay Tuned Dear

 

[Mac1958]

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

I'd love to know what has you so confident. I was listening to righty Hugh Hewitt a couple of days ago, and he was already taking victory laps, wondering if it will be a Romney landslide.

What is it about the numbers that makes you so sure? Intensity? I don't see how it could be anything else.

.

Voter enthusiasm.. registered voters who actually turn out.. All trends show Romney moving up in every single swing state.. Obama has ruined the economy and destroyed foreign policy, TWO MAJOR SCANDALS, FAST N FURIOUS, BENGHAZI..

It's a lovely day!

Okay, so, intensity. I'm looking forward to seeing how the final polls compare to the actual vote, I'd like to see the final relationship between "likely voter" and intensity.

I'm also looking forward to the postmortem because it will mean that this circus is mercifully over. At least for a short while.

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[JoeB131]

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I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

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And that's where Obama has an advantage. He has twice as many feild offices in the Swing States and a very active GOTV machine.

 

[Inthemiddle]

True, and I am sure those calculations are added to the equation. Nate now has Obama with a 52.9% chance of winning Virginia.

Until yesterday I would not have entertained any notion that Obama might win VA. But now that I'm seeing all the protesting about the GOP trying to legislatively insert things into people's vaginae, I'm back to thinking there's a slim chance. I think the GOP would be making a catastrophic mistake to abandon Ohio in favor of PA. Pennsylvania will not go red. It just won't happen. They should continue to focus on Ohio, and sure up Wisconsin as well. If the GOP takes both Ohio and Wisconsin, it becomes impossible for Obama to win. At best, Obama would be able to pull a tie under those circumstances (which would become a Romney win in Congress). But even then, he'd need to win VA in order to tie.

 

[Conservative]

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I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

RCP average is 2.1

 

[Inthemiddle]

.

I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

RCP average is 2.1

Then again, RCP hand picks variant polls to average together to come to its results. Highly unreliable.

 

[Conservative]

.

I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

And that's where Obama has an advantage. He has twice as many feild offices in the Swing States and a very active GOTV machine.

link?

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Understood.

His methodology is math-driven....not exactly a.....

.....Teabagger-favorite.

​

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

No, I actually don't nor do I care if he works for the NY Liberal Slimes.. that's all I need to know.


BTW- You liberal Zombies are becoming more desperate by the hour.. LOL it's amusing to watch. Thanks!

Your desperation has been noted, numerous times.

There's no need for your repetative-efforts.

​

 

[jillian]

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I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

RCP average is 2.1

Then again, RCP hand picks variant polls to average together to come to its results. Highly unreliable.

i wouldn't say it's higly unreliable. they're right-leaning, but i think they try. and i've always found it more valuable to take averages. historically, they've given a clearer picture than any one poll.

it does appear that when polling by the most respected pollster is consistently +5 then romney has a problem in ohio.

there are no more debates.
there are only ads and campaign stops and ground game. so the question becomes what changes the dynamic in the next 12 days?

 

[beretta304]

RCP average is 2.1

Then again, RCP hand picks variant polls to average together to come to its results. Highly unreliable.

i wouldn't say it's higly unreliable. they're right-leaning, but i think they try. and i've always found it more valuable to take averages. historically, they've given a clearer picture than any one poll.

it does appear that when polling by the most respected pollster is consistently +5 then romney has a problem in ohio.

there are no more debates.
there are only ads and campaign stops and ground game. so the question becomes what changes the dynamic in the next 12 days?

I suppose the Colorado study is wrong too.

 

[Liability]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

Nate is going to look and feel as stupid as you when The ONE loses huge.

 

[Two Thumbs]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

did he have a chance to factor in the fact that obama has been caught covering up murders?

I hope not, b/c that would mean that this man knows liberals have no moral bottom or any kind of compass

 

[jillian]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

Nate is going to look and feel as stupid as you when The ONE loses huge.

no one is showing anyone losing "huge". you might want to re-evaluate that, regardless of its pithiness.