Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 the warmest year on record..but only 38% sure we were right

[Old Rocks]

but we're only 38% sure we were right

About the same percentage for getting it right as the TV Weatherman

Good lord, don't you guys have even the basics of what is being said down? Ever hear of a Normal Curve, and standard deviations? Pretty much brand yourself part of the "Pi aren't square, Pi are round, hyuck... hyuck" crowd.

 

[Freewill]

And then we have the unaltered data that tells the truth...

Sucks to be liberal and stupid too..

I have to ask you too, what region is this chart? Is it land, ocean or land and ocean?

 

[Freewill]

If you are confused then I suggest you go to this site and do a search on the data supplied by NOAA. I think you will find it interesting. Climate at a Glance National Climatic Data Center NCDC


Warmer is better.


Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right

• Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’
• But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error
• Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all

Read more: Nasa climate scientists We said 2014 was the warmest but we re only 38 sure Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

I know conservatives struggle with science but why demonstrate your lack of knowledge of statistics too?

Every group of data samples has a range of confidence based on the size of the sample and other unknown variables

There is 38% confidence that the range is the hottest of all time. The other 62% are probably in the second or third hottest of all time

What conclusion can you draw? It is getting hotter

Given those odds what way would you bet? Once the original premise is dismissed I guess folks like you can speculate all you want.

 

[saveliberty]

If you build a hockey stick, they will bring you compact flourescents.

 

[rightwinger]

If you are confused then I suggest you go to this site and do a search on the data supplied by NOAA. I think you will find it interesting. Climate at a Glance National Climatic Data Center NCDC


Warmer is better.


Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right

• Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’
• But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error
• Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all

Read more: Nasa climate scientists We said 2014 was the warmest but we re only 38 sure Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

I know conservatives struggle with science but why demonstrate your lack of knowledge of statistics too?

Every group of data samples has a range of confidence based on the size of the sample and other unknown variables

There is 38% confidence that the range is the hottest of all time. The other 62% are probably in the second or third hottest of all time

What conclusion can you draw? It is getting hotter

Given those odds what way would you bet? Once the original premise is dismissed I guess folks like you can speculate all you want.

Those are not odds, they are statistical confidences

38% confident it is the hottest year ever
The other 62% doesn't mean it wasn't hot, just might be the second or third hottest

What it doesn't in a way show is that global warming is not happening

 

[jc456]

I have yet to see an explanation why they keep forgetting the mid-evil warm period, they have found evidence of crocodiles as far north as New England, but what we have now is record setting, give me a break.

The 'mid-evil' warm period was a slow and gradual change that took about 450 years. We've surpassed it. And have done so in about 50 years.

Let's say you're right. Why do you believe it is anything more than normal? Maybe that is the natural process. you don't know because you have no other examples of what it is supposed to look like. Right?

 

[Billy_Bob]

And then we have the unaltered data that tells the truth...

Sucks to be liberal and stupid too..

I have to ask you too, what region is this chart? Is it land, ocean or land and ocean?

Global Mean. in other words it is the compilation of the whole globe at mid-tropospheric level. You know where that hot spot is supposed to be that is the center of the CAGW lie.

 

[Billy_Bob]

If you are confused then I suggest you go to this site and do a search on the data supplied by NOAA. I think you will find it interesting. Climate at a Glance National Climatic Data Center NCDC


Warmer is better.


Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right

• Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’
• But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error
• Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all

Read more: Nasa climate scientists We said 2014 was the warmest but we re only 38 sure Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

I know conservatives struggle with science but why demonstrate your lack of knowledge of statistics too?

Every group of data samples has a range of confidence based on the size of the sample and other unknown variables

There is 38% confidence that the range is the hottest of all time. The other 62% are probably in the second or third hottest of all time

What conclusion can you draw? It is getting hotter

Given those odds what way would you bet? Once the original premise is dismissed I guess folks like you can speculate all you want.

First we have to gt passed that addition of 1.17 deg C or the positive adjustment that no one can seem to justify (except to keep the alarmism alive and the communist dream of taking over the west)

 

[jc456]

dimocraps live in the world of Confirmation bias

They'll be happy to tell you that Republicans are the party of the rich and then supply you with all the data you need in order to prove their point.

Minutes later, they'll be happy to tell you how much better educated liberal scum are than their Republican opposition. Then supply you with the appropriate data to prove their point.

They'll also be happy to inform you that College Graduates, which the dimocrap party is evidently mostly made up of, earn geometrically more than us unedumucated Republican, Tea Party Hatriots.

And supply us with the data to back their point up.

dimocraps are lying scum. Period. It's what they do, it's ALL they do.

From their lying sack of shit in the White House down to the lowliest form of the all -- The dimocrap voter. They lie. Every last one of them.

I don't post arguments in here to try to change the minds of dimocraps. Not interested. They're too stupid, too dogmatic, too hateful and generally too worthless..... I post arguments in here for the sole purpose of keeping good men and women from falling prey to their lies.

It's all they got. It's all they do.

dimocraps lie.

If they were lying then it would be easy to maybe change their mind. But I think it worse then that, they believe what they are saying. In one breath they will tell us that the Republicans are the party of the rich an in the next post a picture of a poor hillbilly and tell us that is a Republican party member.

that's good!!!!!

 

[jc456]

Statistical confidence is based on your sample size and measurement variables

Based on that you will have a mean temperature with plus and minus confidence

So, if 2014 has a 38 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
2002 has a 12 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
1993 has a 3 percent confidence it is the hottest on record

Guess which year gets reported as the hottest on record?

Who cares? you still haven't stated what is bad about it being warm.

 

[jc456]

Face it, deniers, you were duped by your political cult. Everyone else could always see just how pathetic and dishonest your science was, but you were blind to it. You wanted so badly to believe, so you turned off your brains and had faith. Now, even you understand that it's all crashing down around you, which why you're getting so hysterical. Deniers here don't even try science any more. They just go straight to the deranged conspiracy fables about the great secret global socialist conspiracy.

A smart and honest reaction would be to for deniers to renounce their political cult, and condemn those cult leaders who got caught lying over and over. Sadly, none of them will do that, as their cult brainwashing is too complete. Instead, they're all going to double down on "stupid". And like an abused spouse, they're going to run right back to their abusers for more abuse.

For their sakes, I hope the emotional gratification they obtain from their political cult membership will be worth having the entire world laughing at them for the rest of their lives. Does that sound fun to you, deniers, going hysterical in little corners of message boards, because that's the only spot where the laughter of the whole world isn't too loud? I hope it's fun, because it's all you'll be doing. Forever. That's how badly you've lost.

face it, denier, you still haven't provided the lab experiment. Come on dude/dudetter!!!!

 

[jc456]

liberals are lying scum. ALL of them. About EVERYTHING.

NASA Keeps Telling 8220 Warmest 8221 Lies

NASA has been allowed to degrade to the point where the agency that sent men to the Moon no longer has the capacity to even transport them to Mir, the space station built by the Russians. We have gone from the world’s leader in space exploration to an agency that has been turned into a propaganda machine asserting that a hundredth of a degree “proves” that global warming is happening.

Another asshole just too fucking dumb to realize just how truly ignorant he is. No, it is not a hundreth of a degree that shows the warming is happening, it is the fact that since 1998, we have had three more years that match that year. And most of the years since have ranked in the ten warmest years on record.

2014, no El Nino, should have been a cool year, yet it ranks among the four warmest, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2014. 7 years between 1998 and 2005. 5 years between 2005 and 2010. 4 years between 2010 and 2014. How long before 1998 is matched or even exceeded by a large unmistakable margin this time?

yet, not warmer. Hasn't that been the claim? Since 1998 no warmer. You just agreed!!!

 

[alanbmx123]

If you are confused then I suggest you go to this site and do a search on the data supplied by NOAA. I think you will find it interesting. Climate at a Glance National Climatic Data Center NCDC



Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right

• Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’
• But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error
• Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all

Read more: Nasa climate scientists We said 2014 was the warmest but we re only 38 sure Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Figures don't lie but liars figure [emoji41][emoji615]️


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Crick]

Okay, here's the last 50 years in 3 month steps:

 

[Freewill]

Okay, here's the last 50 years in 3 month steps:

So what does that tell you?

 

[IanC]

south america is pretty hot and is part of the reason for 'hottest year evahhhhhhhhhh'.

hmmm....not a whole lot of data there. maybe we should check some.

yup, it is as hot as can be and getting hotter! but wait, there are a few gaps in there. I wonder if it has always looked like that?

what??????? the data from 2011 seems to look different!

good old adjustments. good thing we are a lot smarter now than in 2011

another one from the same area. do you want more? OK last one.

tell me again how it is the hottest year ever.

check out Paul Homewood's site for more info on this and other locations. Massive Tampering With Temperatures In South America NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

 

[Crick]

Tell us Ian, how cold do you and Mr Homewood think it was last year? Do you believe the Earth is cooling off?

 

[IanC]

Tell us Ian, how cold do you and Mr Homewood think it was last year? Do you believe the Earth is cooling off?

hahahaha, that's an interesting question! but how would we know?

the methodology for dealing with the temperature data continues to change very often, and the data itself changes daily, often for unexplained reasons and certainly not under the direct control of a human being.

a while back I linked up an article by someone who had downloaded two versions of the CET (central england temperature) that is 300+ years long. in a few months time it had risen a few hundredths of a degree on average but not every year was adjusted the same amount. do you think someone was hired to inspect the records, and then went back and increased 1721 by five thousandths of a degree? or do you think that somewhere in the computer code there is a bug that just (intentionally or not) adds a smidgen to all the data? I didnt see a change in the trend, just an addition to the average.


edit- the change was actually larger than I remembered. here is the graph showing the differences

 

[Fugazi]

Forgive my ignorance, but in terms of the impact on humans, what does the temperature of the earth 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 years ago have to do with anything.
Were there 7 billion humans back then?

 

[Kosh]

Forgive my ignorance, but in terms of the impact on humans, what does the temperature of the earth 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 years ago have to do with anything.
Were there 7 billion humans back then?

It means that the earth warms and cools and despite the human population the will continue to do so.

It mean the AGW claims are bunk as the Earth will do what it pleases despite the human population.