Myth: 50% of marriages end in divorce...

[dmp]

Good reading...

Marriage has deteriorated so much that half the marriages in the United States are failing. There is a 50 percent chance that your marriage will not make it.



The Truth:
It's been called America's most-often-cited statistic. It's so widely held to be true that it is repeated without question by authors, speakers, broadcasters, politicians, counselors and ministers.

Here are some examples from just a few Web sites on the Internet:

"Fifty percent of marriages will end in divorce."
— An infidelity support group

"Fifty percent of all marriages now end in divorce."
— Promotion for a book on divorce

"Fifty percent of all marriages in America end in divorce."
— From the treasurer's office of a Midwestern state

"Over 50 percent of marriages end in divorce."
— From a men's counseling center in California

Divorce is too common in America and that should not be taken lightly, but those who are committed to a lifetime of marriage don't need the discouragement accompanying the notion that half the marriages are going to self-destruct anyway.

I was once told by a young bride-to-be that she and her fiancé had decided not to say "Till death do us part" in their wedding vows because the odds of it really happening were only 50-50.

Let me say it straightforwardly: Fifty percent of American marriages are not ending in divorce. It's fiction. A myth. A tragically discouraging urban legend.

If there's no credible evidence that half of American marriages will end up in divorce court, where did that belief originate?

Demographers say there was increased focus on divorce rates during the 1970s when the number of divorces rose, partly as a result of no-fault divorce. Divorces peaked in 1979 and articles started appearing that claimed 50 percent of American marriages were ending in divorce.

A spokesperson for the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics told me that the rumor appears to have originated from a misreading of the facts. It was true, he said, if you looked at all the marriages and divorces within a single year, you'd find that there were twice as many marriages as divorces. In 1981, for example, there were 2.4 million marriages and 1.2 million divorces. At first glance, that would seem like a 50-percent divorce rate.

Virtually none of those divorces were among the people who had married during that year, however, and the statistic failed to take into account the 54 million marriages that already existed, the majority of which would not see divorce.

Another source for the 50-percent figure could be those who were trying to predict the future of divorce. Based on known divorce records, they projected that 50 percent of newly married young people would divorce. University of Chicago sociologist and researcher Linda Waite told USA Today that the 50-percent divorce stats were based more on assumptions than facts.

So what is the divorce picture in America? Surprisingly, it's not easy to get precise figures because some states don't report divorces to the National Center for Health Statistics, including one of the largest: California.

Some researchers have relied on surveys rather than government statistics. In his book Inside America in 1984, pollster Louis Harris said that only about 11 or 12 percent of people who had ever been married had ever been divorced. Researcher George Barna's most recent survey of Americans in 2001 estimates that 34 percent of those who have ever been married have ever been divorced.

One of the latest reports about divorce was released this year by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). It is based on a 1995 federal study of nearly 11,000 women ages 15-44. It predicted that one-third of new marriages among younger people will end in divorce within 10 years and 43 percent within 15 years. That is not a death sentence, however; it's a forecast. Martha Farnsworth Riche, former head of the Census Bureau, told USA Today, "This is what is going to happen unless we want to change it."

Most important, the statistics and predictions about Americans in general don't tell the whole story about the future. There are other factors that affect a person's chances for a long marriage. The NCHS study of women, for example, shows that age makes a difference. Women marrying before age 20 face a higher risk for divorce. Marriages that have already lasted for a number of years are less likely to end in divorce. If your parents did not divorce, your chances are better than if you came from a broken home. Couples who live together before marriage are more likely to divorce.

The bottom line is that marriage is still what it's always been: a commitment between [a man and a woman] who choose to remain faithful to each other. And they don't need to feel doomed because of scary statistics — least of all ones that are urban myths

 

[dilloduck]

It's a major myth to me, hell I'm at 100% 2 up and 2 down!

It's hard to love evil!

Why didn't you tell me this when I asked you to pick a wife for me???? :teeth:

 

[no1tovote4]

Part of this myth is built on counting those people that get married 7 or 8 times and never realize that it takes work to keep a marriage together.

Something like 75% of first marriages stay together and follow their promise of "for better or worse".

It is those people that can truthfully state something that my friend says as a joke, "I am looking for the next ex Mrs. no1tovote4".

 

[no1tovote4]

now would you be implying that the evil doesn't have what it takes?

Nah, both sides have to work at it. Most of the problem comes from people that prepare for the Wedding but not the Marriage.

And I would suggest not picking one for somebody else. There is nothing more telling on how a friend thinks of you than the people they try to set you up with. This practice can end good friendships that would othewise survive through death and dismemberment.

 

[no1tovote4]

I hear ya, was just messin' with ya anyway!

Oh I figured that. Unfortunately I accidentally submitted my post before I was finished.

 

[CivilLiberty]

There are three kinds of lies:

Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.


It all depends on how you cook the books, and the relative comparisons you make.

If in a single year, there are 2.4M Marriages and 1.2M divorces, and those numbers held constant year after year, eventually, it would indeed be a 50% divorce rate.

But it's not a closed system. More useful stats are percentage of marriages that last 1, 5, 10 years. Or percentage of marriages that end in death vs divorce, etc.

People tend to grab the ONE stat that makes their point and disregard the others.


A

 

[dmp]

If in a single year, there are 2.4M Marriages and 1.2M divorces, and those numbers held constant year after year, eventually, it would indeed be a 50% divorce rate.

uh..

Virtually none of those divorces were among the people who had married during that year, however, and the statistic failed to take into account the 54 million marriages that already existed, the majority of which would not see divorce.

No 'reading into' the stats....just explaining why they aren't accurate.

 

[Bonnie]

Part of this myth is built on counting those people that get married 7 or 8 times and never realize that it takes work to keep a marriage together.

Something like 75% of first marriages stay together and follow their promise of "for better or worse".

It is those people that can truthfully state something that my friend says as a joke, "I am looking for the next ex Mrs. no1tovote4".

It's intriguing and sad to me that people spend so much money on a wedding and do all this preparation for the big day, then after the Honeymoon many don't seem to know, or, want to do what it takes to keep a close and happy marriage. I think too many people fall for all the crap written by pop psychologists wanting to sell books, that men and women are so different and can't possibly get along, this one is from Mars and that one is from Venus. I don't buy it. We are all individuals that carry our own stuff into relationships including terrible communication skills, unrealistic expectations of marriage itself. I think too many companies with their traveling spouses requirements and after work Martini get togethers do much more harm to a marriage than male female differences.

 

[dmp]

It's intriguing and sad to me that people spend so much money on a wedding and do all this preparation for the big day, then after the Honeymoon many don't seem to know, or, want to do what it takes to keep a close and happy marriage. I think too many people fall for all the crap written by pop psychologists wanting to sell books, that men and women are so different and can't possibly get along, this one is from Mars and that one is from Venus. I don't buy it. We are all individuals that carry our own stuff into relationships including terrible communication skills, unrealistic expectations of marriage itself. I think too many companies with their traveling spouses requirements and after work Martini get togethers do much more harm to a marriage than male female differences.

People are taught to focus primarily on their specific, relative happiness to determine if the marriage is 'working out'.

 

[Bonnie]

People are taught to focus primarily on their specific, relative happiness to determine if the marriage is 'working out'.

We have become a serial monogomous society. Truly if people would put their marriages and each other first I believe most marriages can be great ones!! And that starts with sex and passion for eachother only, and them deciding that it's a much better life when you have someone who shares your passions, and with whom you can trust to be there for you thru all the ups and downs. JMO

 

[HorhayAtAMD]

Virtually none of those divorces were among the people who had married during that year.

All this means is that more than 50% of marriages will last more than 1 year. This statement does nothing at all to disprove that 50% of marriages will EVENTUALLY end in divorce.

We also shouldn't confuse "50% of marriages end in divorce" with "50% of married people will divorce". You could have a 50% divorce rate with only 30% of married people divorcing if the same people are remarrying and then divorcing again.

Finally, even if 50% of all marriages ended in divorce, it doesn't mean that the distribution of that 50% is even. It could be that 70% of people married before 25 get divorced or that marriages across religions (or between people with no religion) fail far more than others. I think it would be extremely interesting to see the patterns of divorce that this article hinted at.

In the end, it is probably a statistic that is accurate when taken at face value. I wouldn't call it an urban myth like the article does, I would simply say And they don't need to feel doomed because of scary statistics that simply aren't very applicable to predicting the future.

 

[dmp]

All this means is that more than 50% of marriages will last more than 1 year. This statement does nothing at all to disprove that 50% of marriages will EVENTUALLY end in divorce.

Read again, and focus on comprehension Your conclusions are invalid bro.

 

[Mr. P]

All I can say is I'm coming up on an anniversary next month (see we remember) and I don't
pay any attention to statistics like this.

 

[Merlin1047]

I will stipulate at the outset that this proves nothing.

But this piqued my interest, so I did a quick review of my staff. They range in age from 32 to 65. Over 50% have been divorced. On of them multiple times.