I wrote this on Saturday in my newsletter:
OIL generated a new 9-week intraweek low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 83.09 will be seen this week. Indicative and pivotal intraweek support is found 80.56 (83.85 on a weekly closing basis). Oil closed at 84.88 on Friday. Oil is definitively the one item to watch, given that a peace agreement with Iran would remove the strongest reason that Oil rallied that past 3 months. If a peace deal occurs and the pivotal support is broken, a drop down to the $76-$78 area would likely be seen. Nonetheless, a drop down to that area would likely see buying interest with rallies back up to the $83-$85 area being seen. If the war is not resolved, pivotal resistance is found at 96.02. If the war is not resolved but the bombing does not re-start, Oil is likely to trade back up to 91.48 or even up to 94.69 (based on the daily closing chart). As of this evaluation, nothing is clear, though the situation based on what Trump said this last week, does favor the first (of the 3) outlooks (drop down to $76-$78).
Now, in looking at what is happening today when it became clear that the 1st option occurred, all of this seems to be "in play".
Today's low has been 76.86 and right now it is trading at 77.81. There is "daily close" support at 77.88, which is likely where Oil will close today. To further be specific, "intraweek" support is at 75.94. If these levels hold up, a rally back up to "at least" the $83-$85 will be seen.
After the details of the deal come out and considering that there are many doubts about how good of a deal Trump may have obtained, Oil could climb higher than the $83-$85 area.
Nothing that has happened so far this week has been a surprise to charts and as such, to ME!
