Look at the 2020 Electoral Map - Can the GOP flip enough states in 2024 to win the presidency?

[kyzr]

It was close in 2020, but Kamala isn't as popular as Biden was.
2024 could be 2016 on steroids, no one like Kamala.

It wasn't close in 2020. Trump lost by 8 million votes.

The popular vote doesn't count, its the EC that counts.

Narrow Wins In These Key States Powered Biden To The Presidency

Joe Biden topped President Trump by nearly 7 million votes, and 74 votes in the Electoral College, but his victory really was stitched together with narrow margins in key states.

www.npr.org

 

[kyzr]

I think the biggest variable at this point is who the Republicans run in 2024.

If they run Trump again, I think they will lose by even more. Democrats are going to continue to hammer the Jan 6 talking point and I don't think Trump is going to be able to effectively counter that. He was already despised as it was and I think that incident is going to significantly lose independent voters for him.

We can see Trump's approval rating started to plummet at the very end of his term when Jan 6 happened.

View attachment 508444

I believe we're going to see less voter turnout than the 2020 election. We saw yuge increases in both the 2018 midterm election and the 2020 election because of Trump. That's probably, at least hopefully, the peak of the level of political polarization as Biden has been working on lowering the temperature.

Biden and Kamala are relatively boring. So Democrats are going to need to hate the Republican candidate in order to get the vote out.

Call me crazy, but at this point I think the Republican candidate will be Ted Cruz. I think he would have a decent chance at winning. He's Trumpy enough to get the Trump base and disliked by the left, but not completely despised enough to energize the party. I wouldn't like him as president but at least he's someone I would consider a responsible adult, unlike Trump.

Another variable to consider is that Trump woke up a ton of people who were previously apolitical. Most of those people went to the Democrat party. Now it's up to the (D) party to keep them there, which could go either way.

Anyway, with all things considered I think that Arizona flips back to red. I think Georgia is a tossup. I think Nevada stays blue. I think North Carolina stays red. And I think the Republican party will have a hard time breaking through Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan who all have a long tendency to go blue aside from 2016. In my opinion, Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan are still the key to either party's victory. If the Democrats hang on to them, then they win regardless of what else happens. If Republicans can crack any one of them then they have a chance.

Either way, the losing party will cry about election fraud because we're a nation of sore loser crybabies.

I tend to agree with your analysis. Trump is damaged goods to everyone except hard core Trumpers.
So who does that leave to run against Kamala?
Mike Pence, a little dull, but a solid pick
Ted Cruz, very smart, but the MSM has his number
Mike Pompeo, super smart, but not a contender yet
Nikki Haley, my pick for 2024
Tom Cotton, solid guy, could win
Kristi Noem, my VP pick
Jim Jordan, solid guy, I'd be happy with Jim
Ron Desantis, another solid guy, doing a great job in FL

Who will the democrats have? Kamala and and an 82-year old Biden, not much competition.

 

[kyzr]

The harder pick is a GOP candidate, for this thread assume its Trump, who still seems to have a huge GOP following.
So assuming its Kamala vs Trump in 2024

I doubt either one of them will be the nominee.

So who will it be? List the potential candidates:
1. Assuming at some point Kamala replaces Joe Biden
2. Assuming Biden crawls across the finish line of his first term

 

[rightwinger]

Doesn’t matter. Democrats will steal every election necessary to get their way.
Elections are a thing of the past. A mere formality.

Exactly right, unfortunately. Mail-in ballots, ballot harvesting, never-ending election days, always finding more ballots, just look at the latest elections in NYC as an example, or special elections that never end until the democrat wins.
Its supposed to be Election Day, in-person.

imagine that?

Encouraging MORE people to vote
A Republican nightmare

 

[rightwinger]

I think the biggest variable at this point is who the Republicans run in 2024.

If they run Trump again, I think they will lose by even more. Democrats are going to continue to hammer the Jan 6 talking point and I don't think Trump is going to be able to effectively counter that. He was already despised as it was and I think that incident is going to significantly lose independent voters for him.

We can see Trump's approval rating started to plummet at the very end of his term when Jan 6 happened.

View attachment 508444

I believe we're going to see less voter turnout than the 2020 election. We saw yuge increases in both the 2018 midterm election and the 2020 election because of Trump. That's probably, at least hopefully, the peak of the level of political polarization as Biden has been working on lowering the temperature.

Biden and Kamala are relatively boring. So Democrats are going to need to hate the Republican candidate in order to get the vote out.

Call me crazy, but at this point I think the Republican candidate will be Ted Cruz. I think he would have a decent chance at winning. He's Trumpy enough to get the Trump base and disliked by the left, but not completely despised enough to energize the party. I wouldn't like him as president but at least he's someone I would consider a responsible adult, unlike Trump.

Another variable to consider is that Trump woke up a ton of people who were previously apolitical. Most of those people went to the Democrat party. Now it's up to the (D) party to keep them there, which could go either way.

Anyway, with all things considered I think that Arizona flips back to red. I think Georgia is a tossup. I think Nevada stays blue. I think North Carolina stays red. And I think the Republican party will have a hard time breaking through Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan who all have a long tendency to go blue aside from 2016. In my opinion, Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan are still the key to either party's victory. If the Democrats hang on to them, then they win regardless of what else happens. If Republicans can crack any one of them then they have a chance.

Either way, the losing party will cry about election fraud because we're a nation of sore loser crybabies.

I tend to agree with your analysis. Trump is damaged goods to everyone except hard core Trumpers.
So who does that leave to run against Kamala?
Mike Pence, a little dull, but a solid pick
Ted Cruz, very smart, but the MSM has his number
Mike Pompeo, super smart, but not a contender yet
Nikki Haley, my pick for 2024
Tom Cotton, solid guy, could win
Kristi Noem, my VP pick
Jim Jordan, solid guy, I'd be happy with Jim
Ron Desantis, another solid guy, doing a great job in FL

Who will the democrats have? Kamala and and an 82-year old Biden, not much competition.

Nikki Haley is the only one on that list I am concerned with

 

[kyzr]

Doesn’t matter. Democrats will steal every election necessary to get their way.
Elections are a thing of the past. A mere formality.

Exactly right, unfortunately. Mail-in ballots, ballot harvesting, never-ending election days, always finding more ballots, just look at the latest elections in NYC as an example, or special elections that never end until the democrat wins.
Its supposed to be Election Day, in-person.

imagine that?

Encouraging MORE people to vote
A Republican nightmare

It used to only take one day to vote, and one evening to count the votes.
Now its all electronic and it takes weeks for both.
Democrats like to "vote early-vote often", an old Cook County slogan.
Voter fraud is the Republican nightmare.

 

[JoeB131]

It used to only take one day to vote, and one evening to count the votes.
Now its all electronic and it takes weeks for both.
Democrats like to "vote early-vote often", an old Cook County slogan.
Voter fraud is the Republican nightmare.

Well, a lot of problems with this.

States that let them count absentee ballots before election night, had vote totals right away.

The states that took a week were the ones where they put all the votes in a lock box and couldn't start counting them until after all the same day votes were counted.

And really, it does take about a week to count up all the votes, usually. We didn't get a final vote total for the whole country in 2016 until a week later.

It's just that most states, you can tell with an incomplete count who is likely to win. IL didn't get final numbers until a week later, but it was obvious Biden had won.

 

[Mac1958]

I think the biggest variable at this point is who the Republicans run in 2024.

If they run Trump again, I think they will lose by even more. Democrats are going to continue to hammer the Jan 6 talking point and I don't think Trump is going to be able to effectively counter that. He was already despised as it was and I think that incident is going to significantly lose independent voters for him.

We can see Trump's approval rating started to plummet at the very end of his term when Jan 6 happened.

View attachment 508444

I believe we're going to see less voter turnout than the 2020 election. We saw yuge increases in both the 2018 midterm election and the 2020 election because of Trump. That's probably, at least hopefully, the peak of the level of political polarization as Biden has been working on lowering the temperature.

Biden and Kamala are relatively boring. So Democrats are going to need to hate the Republican candidate in order to get the vote out.

Call me crazy, but at this point I think the Republican candidate will be Ted Cruz. I think he would have a decent chance at winning. He's Trumpy enough to get the Trump base and disliked by the left, but not completely despised enough to energize the party. I wouldn't like him as president but at least he's someone I would consider a responsible adult, unlike Trump.

Another variable to consider is that Trump woke up a ton of people who were previously apolitical. Most of those people went to the Democrat party. Now it's up to the (D) party to keep them there, which could go either way.

Anyway, with all things considered I think that Arizona flips back to red. I think Georgia is a tossup. I think Nevada stays blue. I think North Carolina stays red. And I think the Republican party will have a hard time breaking through Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan who all have a long tendency to go blue aside from 2016. In my opinion, Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan are still the key to either party's victory. If the Democrats hang on to them, then they win regardless of what else happens. If Republicans can crack any one of them then they have a chance.

Either way, the losing party will cry about election fraud because we're a nation of sore loser crybabies.

Yeah, the battleground states are gonna be tight. Which, of course, is why they're called that.

Too many variables right now. I don't even know if Trump's legal issues would matter all that much. The Fifth Avenue Rule and all. If he runs, the base will run through fire to vote for their beloved deity buffoon.

Can the Dems get out the vote if Trump doesn't run?

Blech. The only thing I'm pretty sure of is this ugly mess isn't going anywhere for a while.

 

[Rogue AI]

If the Republicans do not reorganize and come together to combat the madness as a collective force - then 2024 will be a disaster.
As of right now, the Democrats have a substantial advantage.
They are well organized. Their message is clear, and no matter how absurd or wrong that message might be - we just sit and take it. And allow them to get away with it.
The Republican Party, nationally, is weak and unorganized. No clear leadership whatsoever. No one.
If things don't change soon, the madness that is happening all around us will get a whole lot worse.

Seriously? Liberals are already at each other's throats. The only thing keeping them from soaking in each others' blood is their morbid misguided fascination with Trump and some little tiff back in January or February or whatever. The radicals are mad because Biden isn't keeping his promises to them. Blacks are one suicide by cop away from burning down urban America, and the border is a mess, which means all sorts of problems for the far left and the moderate 'blue dog' types that allow them their majority at the moment.

Meanwhile, the right's only real problem is keeping quiet long enough for the liberals to tear each other apart. The rifts on the right are easily remedied, Biden's policies are the same or worse than Obama's, that gave us Trump. The left has no such rallying point.