Donald's gonna win.

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Boy, you are looking an awful lot like Statistikenhengst.

I am sure she was good at making you look bad.

 

[The Duke]

I am sure she was good at making you look bad.

No. Quite the other way around, actually.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

There you go gaslighting again.

She has been, if I have her right, been on other boards through the years

An American expat living in Germany or Czecho.

 

[The Duke]

... while most of the stadium was yelling "Boo" and "Fuck you, Trump?" That game.

Video or it didn't happen.

 

[The Duke]

There you go gaslighting again.

She has been, if I have her right, been on other boards through the years

An American expat living in Germany or Czecho.

It's a German dude. Was on the boards to promote own website.

 

[Man With A Plan]

... while most of the stadium was yelling "Boo" and "Fuck you, Trump?" That game.

LOL...nice try, John! You didn't watch the game obviously. The fact of the matter is that Trump can go to big football games...NASCAR events...even local neighborhoods and he's getting cheered everywhere he goes. Harris can't do that. She's staging events in front of audiences that in some cases have to be bussed in. She can't go to places where average people hang out because she gets heckled and her handlers KNOW it's going to happen!

 

[mamooth]

In 2020 Biden's aggregate poll number on election day was +7.2

Nah, couple points less than that. Polls favored dems by 1.9 in that race.

And then pollsters corrected for that. It turns out they wildly overcorrected for it. That's why, in every election after that, Democrats have wildly overperformed the polls.

Why deny such a simply and obvious thing? Why ignore all the post-2020 data? It just makes you look dishonest.

 

[mamooth]

sex change operations for kids,

Anyone who babbles such an idiot lie is either insane, or proudly lying for fascism.

Since you're a Russian puppet, the latter is clearly the case here. You lie because Moscow pays you to lie.

Anyways, toss out Peter Theil's junk polls, and Harris is ahead comfortably. Republicans are trying to fake the polls in this election harder than they've ever faked them before, by saturating the zone with fake polls. It's always the new no-name pollsters that find Trump ahead. Imagine that.

Oh, betting markets? Easily rigged by rich dudes.

 

[Billo_Really]

And Democrats are to blame.

1. The EC map is outright hostile to Democrats, and this will continue to be the case for a long time. Democrats need to reinvent themselves to change that. (See map.)

2. More specifically, the GOP can always be expected to start every Presidential election with 261 guaranteed votes (TX, FL, GA, AL, MS, LA, SC, NC, TN, AR, OK, AZ, UT, KY, MO, KS, WV, OH, IN, IA, NE4, WY, ID, MT, SD, ND, AK), with 7 more likely to go their way (MA1, NZ).

3. Dems will never change NC, GA, or AZ into realistically going blue in anything other than exceptional cases (which was the case in 2020).

4. By contrast, Dems have far fewer guaranteed votes, as more of their friendly states are potential risks to be flipped. Specifically, they can expect to have 191 guaranteed votes (VT, MA, CN, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, CO, CA, OR, WA, MA1, HI), and 35 additional likely votes (MA2, NH, VA, NM, NE1, MN).

5. This means that for the GOP coasting and resting on their laurels will likely be enough for their first 268 votes. Outside of exceptional cases, all the GOP really have to work for is to add ONE MORE VOTE in order to win. The GOP can even afford to lose/ignore/sacrifice their likely/friendly votes by simply winning ONE contested state.

6. Dems, on the other hand, have to solidify their entire "friendly" group, and then they have to sweep the entirety of the swing states. The only real path that will ever be open for Dems will continue to be through the rust belt. And Dems have lost their ability to be convincing.

7. The only true swing states in this day and age are PA, WI, and MI (44 votes).

8. Democrats have spent years, if not decades, banking on Hispanic population growth being their big meal ticket. But it was always a strategy destined to fail.

9. Democrats tendency to think that Hispanics are mostly Democrat friendly types was always rooted in an old fashioned view of Hispanics in America, from when Hispanics were predominantly concentrated in deeply blue areas like California, New Jersey, and New York City. Dems just assumed all Hispanics would more or less think this way.

10. But Hispanics in those Democratic strongholds becoming Democrats was always more about local culture propagating itself, not about Hispanics inherently being inclined to be Democrats.

11. Culturally, many Hispanic Americans are actually likely to be inclined towards being rather conservative in many ways. The role of Christianity in many Latin American cultures is probably the most prominent example.

12. The flaw of the Hispanic plan has already showed itself in the red-cementing of FL. It will really blow up soon--within the next 10 years for sure, but possibly even this election.

13. Democrats stupidly blamed their 2016 loss on the country allegedly being sexist. They're already blaming Harris's under-performance now on the same, plus adding the racist card. Yeah, that stuff is an influence, but the real problem is that they're on the wrong train. Once again, they're not actually dealing with the real problems, so they're not going to be able to overcome their weaknesses.

14. What made 2020 exceptional was that the public was really sick and tired of Donald and his bullshit. But people are stupid and have short memories. They don't have the same sense of urgency this time around.

15. The only other potential to leverage something exceptional for this election will be if Harris is able to rock a stellar get-the-vote-out operation, and if Donald delivers an exceptionally abysmal effort on this front.

Are you the real Stormy Daniels?

 

[mamooth]

Slightly ahead is...

He's not ahead in PA. The two quality polls showed Harris +4. Literally a dozen faked polls came in after that.

 

[mamooth]

The GOP needs to mind it's P & Q's, Duke...poll watchers

Trump cultists are going all out with their thug campaign this time around.

They know they can't win unless they cheat as they're never cheated before.

Needless to say, the Trump cult thugs need to see prison time if they step out of line

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Trump cultists are going all out with their thug campaign this time around.

They know they can't win unless they cheat as they're never cheated before.

Needless to say, the Trump cult thugs need to see prison time if they step out of line

Good grief

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Video or it didn't happen.

What you think does not mattter. People love to
boo Trump in arenas outside his own.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

LOL...nice try, John! You didn't watch the game obviously. The fact of the matter is that Trump can go to big football games...NASCAR events...even local neighborhoods and he's getting cheered everywhere he goes. Harris can't do that. She's staging events in front of audiences that in some cases have to be bussed in. She can't go to places where average people hang out because she gets heckled and her handlers KNOW it's going to happen!

You can lie all you want, or it could be that you live in delusion. Harris does just fine.

 

[Man With A Plan]

Trump cultists are going all out with their thug campaign this time around.

They know they can't win unless they cheat as they're never cheated before.

Needless to say, the Trump cult thugs need to see prison time if they step out of line

We will have poll watchers in place, Mamooth. If liberals in places like Philly's polling places behave themselves there won't be a problem. They should know that if they don't...their actions will be observed, documented and if illegal...they will be getting charged.

 

[The Duke]

Video or it didn't happen.

What you think does not mattter. People love to
boo Trump in arenas outside his own.

Well, in that case, your assertion has not been proven and is to be disregarded.
That's how things really work.
This is the liberal way.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Well, in that case, your assertion has not been proven and is to be disregarded.
That's how things really work.
This is the liberal way.

Nah, we all saw it, including you.

 

[The Duke]

Nah, we all saw it, including you.

A couple morons is not a stadium.
I saw a lot more people doing something very different.
You've been propagandized with that one there. They lied to ya.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Video, or it does not count.

 

[marvin martian]

The Democrats are largely to blame for his rise to begin with, for many of the reasons you mention.

In general, it has been their bizarre commitment to PC and Identity Politics that did it. The country has had enough.

The Dems will not admit it, though.

You voted for all that shit, hypocrite. Twice.