Donald's gonna win.

[ColonelAngus]

Since 1960, average final popular vote poll when PUBS WON was Dem +3, when DEMS WON was Dem +6.

Kamala needs to be at about a 6% margin in the Popular vote to pull off an electoral win.

She is about even.

She needs to make up ROUGHLY 6 points in 2 weeks.

Trump is up in RCP AVERAGE in all 7 Swings.

Dems will cheat, especially in Philly…but will it be enough to win?

 

[skye]

Trump will win...unless there's voter fraud.

That goes without saying!

 

[BackAgain]

All the Dems need is PA, MI, and WI. They have the last two in the bag and spending like crazy in PA.

In the bag?

Sure.

 

[Stormy Daniels]

He will not. He has basically given up. He and his team are now laying the groundwork for the next insurrection.

That was more or less the thinking in 2016.

Aside from that, you aren't even paying attention to what I said. The fundamental premise of my post is that the modern day electoral map forces Democrats to start in a big hole, which they can only overcome with either exceptional circumstances working in their favor, or by fundamentally reinventing themselves.

 

[BackAgain]

That was more or less the thinking in 2016.

Aside from that, you aren't even paying attention to what I said. The fundamental premise of my post is that the modern day electoral map forces Democrats to start in a big hole, which they can only overcome with either exceptional circumstances working in their favor, or by fundamentally reinventing themselves.

Like perhaps by nominating a candidate who has a semblance of fidelity to our Constitution (and sticking with the one who got the primary wins)?

 

[Crepitus]

That was more or less the thinking in 2016.

no.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Do all of the polls, and Harris is just enough ahead in Wi MI and PA to make MAGAs sweat.

 

[Man With A Plan]

Do all of the polls, and Harris is just enough ahead in Wi MI and PA to make MAGAs sweat.

Let me give you a hint about how Harris is doing, John. Most of the pollsters are suddenly not posting their findings. Want to take a guess as to why that is? Harris is leaking support and they know it. Trump is surging and they know that as well.

 

[dudmuck]

Trump will win...unless there's voter fraud.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Let me give you a hint about how Harris is doing, John. Most of the pollsters are suddenly not posting their findings. Want to take a guess as to why that is? Harris is leaking support and they know it. Trump is surging and they know that as well.

PA is the key.

 

[Man With A Plan]

PA is the key.

Did you happen to catch Trump at the Steeler's game, John? Whole stadium chanting "USA...USA!" because they saw Trump in one of the boxes? Trump is going to win that State.

 

[The Duke]

All they need is PA.

....fraud at the ballot box.
They're going for North Carolina ballot box fraud, too.

 

[The Duke]

Did you happen to catch Trump at the Steeler's game, John? Whole stadium chanting "USA...USA!" because they saw Trump in one of the boxes? Trump is going to win that State.

Idk man, the vote fraud in Philly is strong.

 

[The Duke]

In reality, I've made this argument a thousand times or more here.

All you would have to do is search "identity politics" and my name. There ya go.

Will you do that? No, because you are a Trumpster. You have no honor.

Whew! There's the real Mac.
I was wondering if you had a fever or something.

 

[Man With A Plan]

Idk man, the vote fraud in Philly is strong.

The GOP needs to mind it's P & Q's, Duke...poll watchers are going to be more important in this election than any election in the history of the country! The left has shown that they have no reservations about doing whatever is necessary to win...legal or illegal. Having poll watchers in places like Philly is crucial. Without them the Democrats WILL cheat! We know this now so there's no excuse for not being ready for it.

 

[The Duke]

Wow..what a great reason to vote for a president!

I am sure every third grader in the country would agree with you.

They're your future!

 

[The Duke]

Well don't count yourself in the adult category with all your vapid posts.

Your vote for Trump because you want to see TDS rates soar.. Yeah....real mature.

We'll put you down for A-grade meltdown then, amirite?

 

[The Duke]

These are the Presidential election results for Texas since 1980.

2020: R52%, D46%
2016: R52%, D43%
2012: R57%, D41%
2008: R55%, D44%
2004: R61%, D38%
2000: R59%, D38%
1996: R49%, D44%
1992: R41%, D37%
1988: R56%, D43%
1984: R64%, D36%
1980: R55%, D41%

The only notable "accomplishment" Democrats have made in the state was in 2020, when they finally managed to get more than 45% of the vote for the first time in decades. But as I said in the OP, 2020 was extraordinary, due just how stunningly awful Donald is. There's no "moving average" here. There's been four decades of up and down, but always resulting in a completely non-competitive result for Democrats.

Boy, you are looking an awful lot like Statistikenhengst.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Did you happen to catch Trump at the Steeler's game, John? Whole stadium chanting "USA...USA!" because they saw Trump in one of the boxes? Trump is going to win that State.

... while most of the stadium was yelling "Boo" and "Fuck you, Trump?" That game.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

....fraud at the ballot box.
They're going for North Carolina ballot box fraud, too.

Gaslighting the Dems for that which the GOP are doing in NC and GA.