Dr. Phosphorous
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- Sep 3, 2024
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In some of the battleground states such as MI, PA, NC, and GA, there is at least a 10 point gap when comparing women voters vs men voters. This is not normal by any means. Women usually vote more than men, but not by such a large margin.
However, there is not a huge disparity so far between Democratic registered voters vs Republican registered voters nationwide....so what gives?
What I think this could indicate is that a lot of registered Republican female voters are actually voting for Harris, not Trump. Women could be punishing Trump and the GOP Taliban for the overturning of Roe vs Wade.
From Politico --
Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.
It’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, including whether Democrats are winning over unaffiliated or moderate Republican women disillusioned with former President Donald Trump. But the gender gap has been one of the defining features of the 2024 campaign, and Harris allies see the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign.
“In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart. “I never would have bet on that.”
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project. Similar gender data is not available for other battlegrounds, including Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155
However, there is not a huge disparity so far between Democratic registered voters vs Republican registered voters nationwide....so what gives?
What I think this could indicate is that a lot of registered Republican female voters are actually voting for Harris, not Trump. Women could be punishing Trump and the GOP Taliban for the overturning of Roe vs Wade.
From Politico --
Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.
It’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, including whether Democrats are winning over unaffiliated or moderate Republican women disillusioned with former President Donald Trump. But the gender gap has been one of the defining features of the 2024 campaign, and Harris allies see the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign.
“In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart. “I never would have bet on that.”
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project. Similar gender data is not available for other battlegrounds, including Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155
