John Zogby: Obama hasn’t closed the deal yet

[The Paperboy]

John Zogby, the man behind the Zogby polling organization, which is partnered with Reuters and C-SPAN, made some interesting comments a day ago concerning the Presidential race. In the Zogby tracking polls, Obama leads McCain but hasn’t been able to pull out of the margin of error.

Story here

 

[bigdaddygtr]

John Zogby, the man behind the Zogby polling organization, which is partnered with Reuters and C-SPAN, made some interesting comments a day ago concerning the Presidential race. In the Zogby tracking polls, Obama leads McCain but hasn’t been able to pull out of the margin of error.

Story here

You keep trying to pull out anything you can, I commend your effort, even though its completely and utterly futile

 

[The Paperboy]

You keep trying to pull out anything you can, I commend your effort, even though its completely and utterly futile

And I commend you in advance for the good manners you and other Obama supporters will display when Obama loses.

 

[Red Dawn]

John Zogby, the man behind the Zogby polling organization, which is partnered with Reuters and C-SPAN, made some interesting comments a day ago concerning the Presidential race. In the Zogby tracking polls, Obama leads McCain but hasn’t been able to pull out of the margin of error.

Oops...

ZOGBY, Oct. 12: The Democratic nominee makes a move as his Republican opponent slips

UTICA, New York, Zobgy - Democratic Party presidential nominee Barack Obama took a step into rarified air this morning, standing for the first time outside the statistical margin of error in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby likely voter poll. The survey shows him moving into a statistically significant edge of 6.1 percentage points over Republican John McCain in the latest nationwide sample.


Zogby Polls

Oct. 11

Obama 48.9%, McCain 42.8% -- Obama plus 6.1%

Zogby International

 

[bigdaddygtr]

And I commend you in advance for the good manners you and other Obama supporters will display when Obama loses.

 

[Larkinn]

And I commend you in advance for the good manners you and other Obama supporters will display when Obama loses.

What exactly compels you to make the huge leap from "he can't put it away" to "he will lose"?

Considering the only way he could put it away now would be if McCain was found with a live boy or a dead girl, I don't think its a real big sign that he hasn't put it away.

 

[The Paperboy]

What exactly compels you to make the huge leap from "he can't put it away" to "he will lose"?

My personal opinion is Obama's support from independents and Hillary supporters is very soft and it wouldn't take much for them to jump ship.

Also I suspect the polls are off by about 5 points due to the "Bradely Effect".

 

[Larkinn]

My personal opinion is Obama's support from independents and Hillary supporters is very soft and it wouldn't take much for them to jump ship.

Their support is soft, but their support of McCain is almost nonexistant. Hell McCain can barely get the support of anyone. I don't know anyone on this board who is voting for McCain as anything other than an anti-Obama tactic.

Also I suspect the polls are off by about 5 points due to the "Bradely Effect".

Wouldn't that mean the Bradley Effect would have shown up in the primaries even stronger than it would in the general? Care to point to evidence of such?

 

[The Paperboy]

Their support is soft, but their support of McCain is almost nonexistant. Hell McCain can barely get the support of anyone. I don't know anyone on this board who is voting for McCain as anything other than an anti-Obama tactic.

I think you're being partisan. The independents have had major "mood swings" in just the past 6 weeks.

I just spent the weekend on Cape Cod, a bastion of the Liberal elite, and I saw almost as many McCain signs as Obama signs which really, really surprised me.

Wouldn't that mean the Bradley Effect would have shown up in the primaries even stronger than it would in the general? Care to point to evidence of such?

New Hampshire is just one example without even doing any research. But many of the polls had Obama winning by much larger margins than the actual vote and in some cases losing when he was shown to be winning. RCP has all the polls/results.

But who knows, maybe there will be no Bradley effect or a reverse Bradly effect.

 

[Larkinn]

I think you're being partisan. The independents have had major "mood swings" in just the past 6 weeks.

Umm, not really. McCain has only been up once, during and right after the RNC, which was completely predictable.

I just spent the weekend on Cape Cod, a bastion of the Liberal elite, and I saw almost as many McCain signs as Obama signs which really, really surprised me.

And?

New Hampshire is just one example without even doing any research. But many of the polls had Obama winning by much larger margins than the actual vote and in some cases losing when he was shown to be winning. RCP has all the polls/results.

But who knows, maybe there will be no Bradley effect or a reverse Bradly effect.

See, a Bradley effect would be consistent in each state, depending on how many whites there were in the state.

For an explanation of why there was no effect see here

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect

However one money quote is this:

On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day.

So Obama overperformed the polls. Doesn't seem like the Bradley effect exists here.

 

[The Paperboy]

So Obama overperformed the polls. Doesn't seem like the Bradley effect exists here.[/QUOTE]

Sounds like Obama has it in the bag. I'd just sit back and relax and not worry about it.

 

[Larkinn]

So Obama overperformed the polls. Doesn't seem like the Bradley effect exists here.

Sounds like Obama has it in the bag. I'd just sit back and relax and not worry about it.[/QUOTE]

Oh, I'm not worried about it. I'm having a grand ol time shoving it in your faces.

 

[The Paperboy]

Sounds like Obama has it in the bag. I'd just sit back and relax and not worry about it.

Oh, I'm not worried about it. I'm having a grand ol time shoving it in your faces.

[/QUOTE]

Whatever gets you through the night though I've read that wanting to shove things into people's faces is some kind of latent attempt to crawl back into the womb.

 

[Chris]

Oh, I'm not worried about it. I'm having a grand ol time shoving it in your faces.

Whatever gets you through the night though I've read that wanting to shove things into people's faces is some kind of latent attempt to crawl back into the womb.[/QUOTE]

You won't be here on election day.

You won't have the guts to show your face.

 

[DavidS]

Don't laugh. Obama hasn't closed the deal yet. We still have three weeks and one additional debate to go. The polls are definitely going to tighten up.