Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in most states

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

 

[grbb]

So trump will need to campaign in Florida and Pennynsylvania

 

[Sun Devil 92]

The point of this thread was what ?

 

[grbb]

In Indonesia, a muslim country, tv says that Trump was ahead again. Even muslims in Indonesia wasn't offended.

I don't know whether we like trump or not.

 

[nicoleivy5]

So trump will need to campaign in Florida and Pennynsylvania

even if he wins those two states votes it would still be hard for him to have more overall votes

 

[nicoleivy5]

The point of this thread was what ?

to show the states of the US + margin of victory of each candidate in those states

 

[MarathonMike]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

 

[Steve_McGarrett]

Trump will win.

Professor With Reliable Election Model Stands by His Prediction of a Trump Victory (VIDEO)

Pollster Pat Caddell: Something Strange Going On in Polls... "Shock Potential Enormous"

 

[nicoleivy5]

Trump will win.

Professor With Reliable Election Model Stands by His Prediction of a Trump Victory (VIDEO)

Pollster Pat Caddell: Something Strange Going On in Polls... "Shock Potential Enormous"

One can only hope

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

 

[HappyJoy]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Lie.

2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics

 

[HappyJoy]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

Another lie.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

Carter 45%, Reagan 39%.

 

[HappyJoy]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

Another lie.

View attachment 94839

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

Carter 45%, Reagan 39%.

That;s only a single poll by Gallup. We don't limit ourselves to only one poll today. So, yeah, it's a lie.

 

[nicoleivy5]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

Another lie.

View attachment 94839

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

Carter 45%, Reagan 39%.

That;s only a single poll by Gallup. We don't limit ourselves to only one poll today. So, yeah, it's a lie.

true theres hundreds of polls literally that can be used

 

[HappyJoy]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

Another lie.

View attachment 94839

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

Carter 45%, Reagan 39%.

That;s only a single poll by Gallup. We don't limit ourselves to only one poll today. So, yeah, it's a lie.

true theres hundreds of polls literally that can be used

Hundreds? Not really. There are scientific polls that poll aggrigators use to determine overall what the polls are saying. Then there are idiots who run to Gateway Pundit who will be sure to promote every outlier as if it's the norm or even worse promote unscientific polls to pretend public opinion is something other than reality in events such as the outcome of the debates.

In other words, Gallup was an outlier in 1980, the polls showed Reagan winning. The polls in 2016 show Clinton winning, though like Gallup in 1980 there are outliers.

 

[nicoleivy5]

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

Another lie.

View attachment 94839

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

Carter 45%, Reagan 39%.

That;s only a single poll by Gallup. We don't limit ourselves to only one poll today. So, yeah, it's a lie.

true theres hundreds of polls literally that can be used

Hundreds? Not really. There are scientific polls that poll aggrigators use to determine overall what the polls are saying. Then there are idiots who run to Gateway Pundit who will be sure to promote every outlier as if it's the norm or even worse promote unscientific polls to pretend public opinion is something other than reality in events such as the outcome of the debates.

In other words, Gallup was an outlier in 1980, the polls showed Reagan winning. The polls in 2016 show Clinton winning, though like Gallup in 1980 there are outliers.

thanks!

 

[yiostheoy]

I am guessing that Mississippi will be the only state that actually votes for Trump.

Utah which is the most red state in the Nation will go for McMullin not Trump nor Hillary.

All the other states will probably go for Hillary even Texas and Arizona.

The POTUS race is no longer relevant -- Trump has blown it so bad that he cannot win.

The Senate race is now the most relevant issue at stake in order to control Hillary when she becomes POTUS.

If McConnell can keep his job then Hillary will be under control.

If Hillary wins the Senate then she will be out of control.

If Hillary wins both Senate AND House then she will be rabid.

 

[Norman]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

so you think the forecast is inaccurate?