Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in most states

[Norman]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

so you think the forecast is inaccurate?

Absolutely. Garbage into a garbage model (which we have no knowledge about) equals garbage out.

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

so you think the forecast is inaccurate?

Absolutely. Garbage into a garbage model (which we have no knowledge about) equals garbage out.

is it at least close to being accurate?

 

[Norman]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

so you think the forecast is inaccurate?

Absolutely. Garbage into a garbage model (which we have no knowledge about) equals garbage out.

is it at least close to being accurate?

I would say, almost certainly not. But anything can of course be claimed on chance.

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

The undeniable fact of modeling.

Plus, the model is wrong in the first place...

I would have credibility on simulations only if I myself coded them or the model and the data was shared publicly. The model is most likely based on the polls and adds some randomness based on the variance...

so you think the forecast is inaccurate?

Absolutely. Garbage into a garbage model (which we have no knowledge about) equals garbage out.

is it at least close to being accurate?

I would say, almost certainly not. But anything can of course be claimed on chance.

real talk

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

very good

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

bad news for trump

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

its so close

 

[nicoleivy5]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

How could this be

 

[nicoleivy5]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

not so good

 

[nicoleivy5]

really?

 

[nicoleivy5]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

things arent going so well

 

[nicoleivy5]

hope Trump can bounce back

 

[easyt65]

'Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in most states'

Libs are pulling out all the stops, using all the old tricks. This one is one of my favorites.

The media and surrogates skew the polls.
The Surrogates declare Hillary is out in front.
Hillary claims she has it won already.
The media parrots it.
On election day the media will report BS slanted exit polls biased for a big Hillary win EARLY...

All designed to discourage the massive, record-setting turn-out Trump has had...that has been dwarfing Hillary's.

Good luck with that...

 

[nicoleivy5]

'Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in most states'

Libs are pulling out all the stops, using all the old tricks. This one is one of my favorites.

The media and surrogates skew the polls.
The Surrogates declare Hillary is out in front.
Hillary claims she has it won already.
The media parrots it.
On election day the media will report BS slanted exit polls biased for a big Hillary win EARLY...

All designed to discourage the massive, record-setting turn-out Trump has had...that has been dwarfing Hillary's.

Good luck with that...

yeah true they need plenty of luck

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

you get to where you want to get to by staying focused

 

[nicoleivy5]

Romney was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 2012. How did that work out?

Carter was ahead by 6 points in the polls with less than a month to go in 1980. How did that work out?

Another lie.

Donald Trump wrong about 1980 Ronald Reagan race against Jimmy Carter

things arent going so well

she is indeed ahead

 

[nicoleivy5]

she will certainly win

 

[nicoleivy5]

'Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in most states'

Libs are pulling out all the stops, using all the old tricks. This one is one of my favorites.

The media and surrogates skew the polls.
The Surrogates declare Hillary is out in front.
Hillary claims she has it won already.
The media parrots it.
On election day the media will report BS slanted exit polls biased for a big Hillary win EARLY...

All designed to discourage the massive, record-setting turn-out Trump has had...that has been dwarfing Hillary's.

Good luck with that...

real talk we have a winner

 

[nicoleivy5]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump - forecast and expected margin of victory - more details

Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.

Trump is going down unfortunately

 

[nicoleivy5]

sad news