JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
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I looked at the latest polls on RCP for each state and gave Trump a 6% padding to reflect the Brexit Factor that I think will be as high as 8%, i.e. a 4% swing from Dimocrat to Republican netting an 8% change. The latter is what happened in Europe, but here I am padding only a 3% swing, amounting to a 6% change in the vote.
I think that we will have closer to a 5% swing, making that there will be a 10% difference in trumps favor from the RCP averages. A couple of surveys of voters who were asked for a show of hand initially then after a neutral speech were then given a secret ballot. There were changes of 10% for Trump from the show of hands vote.
IF there is a 5% swing for a 10% difference, lol, this is going to be an historic landslide.
I think that we will have closer to a 5% swing, making that there will be a 10% difference in trumps favor from the RCP averages. A couple of surveys of voters who were asked for a show of hand initially then after a neutral speech were then given a secret ballot. There were changes of 10% for Trump from the show of hands vote.
IF there is a 5% swing for a 10% difference, lol, this is going to be an historic landslide.
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