feeling grimmer about obama chances today

[decker]

"Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 5 points nationally, according to the closely watched Gallup daily tracking poll.

Romney takes 51 percent to Obama's 46 in the poll of likely voters, released Friday. Romney picked up a point and Obama lost a point from the same poll on Thursday, which Romney led 50 to 47."


Romney extends lead over Obama in Gallup daily tracking poll - The Hill's Ballot Box

And we were talking about state polls and polls on groups of voters in those states, not national polls. The agreed upon debate here is that the election will be decided in a few states.

National polls tell a wider story, Both campaigns have been messaging to a far narrower audience than any national audience you imagine matters.
--

then some of us were discussing analysis of polls and what people were saying about how they reach their conclusions or bets.

well i hope your right. but i don,t think you can win ec vote deep down in so behind in national vote. he needs to close that gap for me in nv vote.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Deck, that was directed at those who refuse to let you post in peace. They've made their opinions known, now maybe they can let it rest, so we can concentrate on the posts instead of the posters. That would be nice.

oh right. many apogies man. my mistake. thanks for the support and sorry for arugments in this thread man.

i hope they can leave the attacks man. it just boring and goes away from the topic. but what will be , will be

thanks for the support. same with you to man. but we all have to defend ourselves sometimes.

decker and Irish Rimjob keep confusing which account they are posting on.

 

[Darkwind]

Remember true Christians are not voting for a Mormon it's that simple, no one is talking about it . They are not voting obama ,they will stay home . Latinos are not voting romney .
So the numbers are deceiving .

You keep telling yourself that.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

"Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 5 points nationally, according to the closely watched Gallup daily tracking poll.

Romney takes 51 percent to Obama's 46 in the poll of likely voters, released Friday. Romney picked up a point and Obama lost a point from the same poll on Thursday, which Romney led 50 to 47."


Romney extends lead over Obama in Gallup daily tracking poll - The Hill's Ballot Box

And we were talking about state polls and polls on groups of voters in those states, not national polls. The agreed upon debate here is that the election will be decided in a few states.

National polls tell a wider story, Both campaigns have been messaging to a far narrower audience than any national audience you imagine matters.
--

then some of us were discussing analysis of polls and what people were saying about how they reach their conclusions or bets.

well i hope your right. but i don,t think you can win ec vote deep down in so behind in national vote. he needs to close that gap for me in nv vote.

gaps van be narrow or wide. doesn't matter. a win is a win. winning in counties is key.

Plouffe is genius here

 

[buckeye45_73]

Decker, this rw will cime in and crush these homo loving liberals for ya. Why? Because its fun. I dont mind helping out a socialist if it gives me the excuse to bash other ones.

 

[decker]

Decker, this rw will cime in and crush these homo loving liberals for ya. Why? Because its fun. I dont mind helping out a socialist if it gives me the excuse to bash other ones.

well thanks for nice comments man. i am not a socialist though but you have right to your view though. so fair enough.

i don,t want to bash anyone. but like anyone on here i will defend myself against attacks on my character

 

[candycorn]

I think decker says what most liberals are feeling and they don't like to hear it. I'm not for either of these guys, but if I were a betting man I would put my $$$ on Romney. You can just feel it.

It's obvious Obama feels it. You can see it and hear it in his voice. The man is worried. No amount of name calling and insults will change the fact the Obama is fighting for his life in this one. If the libs don't see that they are out of touch with reality. This is a vicious streetfight and Romney appears to have the upper hand_right now_

Really. You're typing with your heart and not your head.

US Presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote, are they not?

I'm aware of exactly one reputable poll (RCP) that gave Romney an electoral lead. One. That has since changed back to Obama leading

Obama; 201 Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map


Rasmussen; Obama 237, Romney 206 Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports™

Electoral-Vote.com; Obama 284, Romney 220 ElectoralVote

Fox News; Obama 202, Romney 192 2012 Presidential Election | Politics | Fox News
Also from Fox News:
Karl Rove; Obama 184, Romney 169
Joe Trippi; Obama 237, Romney 191

CNN Obama 237, Romney 206 CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
ABC News, Obama 237, Romney 206 Politics News: Latest Political News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News


As for the President's mood, he creamed Romney in 2 debates straight, is seeking to energize the key demographics (youth and women). Biden creamed Ryan in their debate He has regained the momentum he lost as a result of losing the first debate. Consumer confidence is up, unemployment is down.

Please tell us what electoral vote tally you're viewing that gives Romney a lead at this juncture.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Remember true Christians are not voting for a Mormon it's that simple, no one is talking about it . They are not voting obama ,they will stay home . Latinos are not voting romney .
So the numbers are deceiving .

You keep telling yourself that.

Silver, of course, spends much of his time analyzing the latest polls and converting them into election projections. On a much more casual basis, so do I, and so does Brooks, who entitled his column: “Confessions of a Poll Addict.” The difference is that Silver has built a mathematical forecasting model, and people take it very seriously: he is widely regarded as a political astrologer who gets things right. In the 2008 Presidential election, he correctly picked the winner of forty-nine states. Political junkies of all stripes, but particularly Democrats, follow his site religiously. Over the past few weeks, as the opinion polls in this year’s Presidential election have tightened, I’ve lost count of the number of people who have said to me something along the lines of, “Yes, but Nate Silver still says Obama’s got a seventy-five per cent chance of winning.”

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

October 24, 2012
Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections
Posted by John Cassidy


Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

Thursday morning update: Clearly some people don’t like this post, which is fair enough. One of the roles of the columnist is to provoke, and, occasionally, enrage. Rather than address the criticisms in the comments section individually, I’ll say a few things and leave it at that.

Firstly, it was not my intention to make a political point, or to give succor to the Republicans. As I indicated, I agree with Silver that Obama is still ahead where he needs to be ahead, and that he is likely to win. What I query is the apparent precision of the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, and whether its model adds very much to the opinion polls.

Secondly, in reaching for a strong conclusion, I was overemphatic. Clearly the model helps us to think about the likelihood of a Romney victory: the question is how much. In encapsulating the latest polling data in a timely manner, its forecasts provide a valuable benchmark, to which I and many others regularly refer. But that doesn’t mean it is entirely reliable.

Finally, I will be perfectly happy to be proved wrong. After spending many years watching economists and financial analysts struggling to predict the future, I perhaps have a jaundiced view of the usefulness of statistical forecasts in the social sciences. If a super-smart fellow like Silver has indeed demonstrated a reliable way to predict political outcomes, it represents real progress. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. If Silver calls the popular vote and the electoral college correctly again this year, and if his model outperforms the Real Clear Politics poll of polls in the battleground states, I will gladly eat humble pie and send round a bottle of champagne to the FiveThirtyEight offices.

:

 

[candycorn]

not having same confidence candy. opposite at the moment really.

Your posts actually make me more confident there skippy. I can't imagine you're correct about too many things.

well to be honest i have been. i thought that we have hung parliament in 2010 in uk and we did. look i might be wrong but fact is we can,t ignore media and polls and pretend everything rosy in the garden. it just not and we have to be honest about it

on chris matthews show last sunday they said obama had more heavy lifting to then romney did. that on left learning show. so that is never good to hear

First brush up on the Presidential elections and the electoral college.
Next, find me some reputable polling data that shows Romney consistently ahead in that College. When you do, then pull your worry-wart imitation.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

and finally...

WASHINGTON - With the election still four months away, President Barack Obama holds "a significant lead" over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a new Pew Research Center poll released Thursday. - Obama holds ‘significant lead’ over Romney in new national poll - BostonHerald.com

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped - NYTimes.com

Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.

Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.

...

This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama.

The trend could also be spurious. If the race is steady, it’s not that hard for one candidate to gain ground in five of six polls (excluding the two that showed no movement on Wednesday) just based on chance alone.

What isn’t very likely, however, is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him. In other words, we can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like this if he still had momentum.

The FiveThirtyEight model looks at a broader array of polls — including state polls — in order to gauge the overall trend in the race.

 

[Listening]

Remember true Christians are not voting for a Mormon it's that simple, no one is talking about it . They are not voting obama ,they will stay home . Latinos are not voting romney .
So the numbers are deceiving .

Bbbbbuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuullllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllccccccccccccccrrrrrrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaaaapppppppppppppppppppppp

 

[decker]

I think decker says what most liberals are feeling and they don't like to hear it. I'm not for either of these guys, but if I were a betting man I would put my $$$ on Romney. You can just feel it.

It's obvious Obama feels it. You can see it and hear it in his voice. The man is worried. No amount of name calling and insults will change the fact the Obama is fighting for his life in this one. If the libs don't see that they are out of touch with reality. This is a vicious streetfight and Romney appears to have the upper hand_right now_

Really. You're typing with your heart and not your head.

US Presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote, are they not?

I'm aware of exactly one reputable poll (RCP) that gave Romney an electoral lead. One. That has since changed back to Obama leading

Obama; 201 Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map


Rasmussen; Obama 237, Romney 206 Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports™

Electoral-Vote.com; Obama 284, Romney 220 ElectoralVote

Fox News; Obama 202, Romney 192 2012 Presidential Election | Politics | Fox News
Also from Fox News:
Karl Rove; Obama 184, Romney 169
Joe Trippi; Obama 237, Romney 191

CNN Obama 237, Romney 206 CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
ABC News, Obama 237, Romney 206 Politics News: Latest Political News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News


As for the President's mood, he creamed Romney in 2 debates straight, is seeking to energize the key demographics (youth and women). Biden creamed Ryan in their debate He has regained the momentum he lost as a result of losing the first debate. Consumer confidence is up, unemployment is down.

Please tell us what electoral vote tally you're viewing that gives Romney a lead at this juncture.

i agree that ec vote still sight edge for obama but i just think he needs to close national poll vote as that will matter as well.

but still those polls are promising

 

[AceRothstein]

I think decker says what most liberals are feeling and they don't like to hear it. I'm not for either of these guys, but if I were a betting man I would put my $$$ on Romney. You can just feel it.

It's obvious Obama feels it. You can see it and hear it in his voice. The man is worried. No amount of name calling and insults will change the fact the Obama is fighting for his life in this one. If the libs don't see that they are out of touch with reality. This is a vicious streetfight and Romney appears to have the upper hand_right now_

Really. You're typing with your heart and not your head.

US Presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote, are they not?

I'm aware of exactly one reputable poll (RCP) that gave Romney an electoral lead. One. That has since changed back to Obama leading

Obama; 201 Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map


Rasmussen; Obama 237, Romney 206 Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports™

Electoral-Vote.com; Obama 284, Romney 220 ElectoralVote

Fox News; Obama 202, Romney 192 2012 Presidential Election | Politics | Fox News
Also from Fox News:
Karl Rove; Obama 184, Romney 169
Joe Trippi; Obama 237, Romney 191

CNN Obama 237, Romney 206 CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
ABC News, Obama 237, Romney 206 Politics News: Latest Political News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News


As for the President's mood, he creamed Romney in 2 debates straight, is seeking to energize the key demographics (youth and women). Biden creamed Ryan in their debate He has regained the momentum he lost as a result of losing the first debate. Consumer confidence is up, unemployment is down.

Please tell us what electoral vote tally you're viewing that gives Romney a lead at this juncture.

i agree that ec vote still sight edge for obama but i just think he needs to close national poll vote as that will matter as well.

but still those polls are promising

Whoa! A positive comment from decker!

 

[Qantrill]

So you're still throwing your British support behind the guy that let HIS DIPLOMATIC STAFF die at the hand of terrorists in Benghazi? And then lied thru his damned buck teeth about it?

he did not lie about that. he may have cocked up but he did not lie.
just because i am british does not mean i can,t support him. I think he done good job at resorting america image aboard and tried to improve americans lives

i admit he heading to lose but i think he done a lot of good things

Oh yeah decker. Obama lied alright. In fact he lied for over two freaking weeks before H. Clinton fell on the sword for that piece of shit. There was NOTHING wrong with "America Image aboard", nor America's image abroad. If the libtards in Europe, or China or Germany or anywhere else in the world don't like "america image", tough shit. If not for America's image and military you would be speaking GERMAN right the hell now, decker....TWICE we bailed your asses out.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I think decker says what most liberals are feeling and they don't like to hear it. I'm not for either of these guys, but if I were a betting man I would put my $$$ on Romney. You can just feel it.

It's obvious Obama feels it. You can see it and hear it in his voice. The man is worried. No amount of name calling and insults will change the fact the Obama is fighting for his life in this one. If the libs don't see that they are out of touch with reality. This is a vicious streetfight and Romney appears to have the upper hand_right now_

Really. You're typing with your heart and not your head.

US Presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote, are they not?

I'm aware of exactly one reputable poll (RCP) that gave Romney an electoral lead. One. That has since changed back to Obama leading

Obama; 201 Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map


Rasmussen; Obama 237, Romney 206 Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports™

Electoral-Vote.com; Obama 284, Romney 220 ElectoralVote

Fox News; Obama 202, Romney 192 2012 Presidential Election | Politics | Fox News
Also from Fox News:
Karl Rove; Obama 184, Romney 169
Joe Trippi; Obama 237, Romney 191

CNN Obama 237, Romney 206 CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
ABC News, Obama 237, Romney 206 Politics News: Latest Political News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News


As for the President's mood, he creamed Romney in 2 debates straight, is seeking to energize the key demographics (youth and women). Biden creamed Ryan in their debate He has regained the momentum he lost as a result of losing the first debate. Consumer confidence is up, unemployment is down.

Please tell us what electoral vote tally you're viewing that gives Romney a lead at this juncture.

i agree that ec vote still sight edge for obama but i just think he needs to close national poll vote as that will matter as well.

but still those polls are promising

:uckoo:

 

[Charles_Main]

Dante's Desperation and sheer Panic are on display on this thread. Dude must be about 50% of the Responses on this thread.

 

[decker]

Really. You're typing with your heart and not your head.

US Presidential elections are decided by the electoral vote, are they not?

I'm aware of exactly one reputable poll (RCP) that gave Romney an electoral lead. One. That has since changed back to Obama leading

Obama; 201 Romney 191
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map


Rasmussen; Obama 237, Romney 206 Election 2012 - Rasmussen Reports™

Electoral-Vote.com; Obama 284, Romney 220 ElectoralVote

Fox News; Obama 202, Romney 192 2012 Presidential Election | Politics | Fox News
Also from Fox News:
Karl Rove; Obama 184, Romney 169
Joe Trippi; Obama 237, Romney 191

CNN Obama 237, Romney 206 CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
ABC News, Obama 237, Romney 206 Politics News: Latest Political News and U.S. Elections Coverage - ABC News


As for the President's mood, he creamed Romney in 2 debates straight, is seeking to energize the key demographics (youth and women). Biden creamed Ryan in their debate He has regained the momentum he lost as a result of losing the first debate. Consumer confidence is up, unemployment is down.

Please tell us what electoral vote tally you're viewing that gives Romney a lead at this juncture.

i agree that ec vote still sight edge for obama but i just think he needs to close national poll vote as that will matter as well.

but still those polls are promising

Whoa! A positive comment from decker!

i not always been negative. said some polls like nv poll last night for nbc and ohio cnn were good. but i still think he needs to close gap in nv vote if he wants to win.

 

[decker]

So you're still throwing your British support behind the guy that let HIS DIPLOMATIC STAFF die at the hand of terrorists in Benghazi? And then lied thru his damned buck teeth about it?

he did not lie about that. he may have cocked up but he did not lie.
just because i am british does not mean i can,t support him. I think he done good job at resorting america image aboard and tried to improve americans lives

i admit he heading to lose but i think he done a lot of good things

Oh yeah decker. Obama lied alright. In fact he lied for over two freaking weeks before H. Clinton fell on the sword for that piece of shit. There was NOTHING wrong with "America Image aboard", nor America's image abroad. If the libtards in Europe, or China or Germany or anywhere else in the world don't like "america image", tough shit. If not for America's image and military you would be speaking GERMAN right the hell now, decker....TWICE we bailed your asses out.

be unfair on all british soliders that worked hand in hand with us during world war two. i thank americans but i am sure bet they thank us for supporting them with other thing. its a good relationship the two countries have

 

[amrchaos]

Well, I am pretty optimistic about Roseanne Barr's chances!!