flacaltenn
Diamond Member
Not every poll is including LibParty or Greens. But the ones that do are pretty consistent right now. And the news is good. Since in one of the polls below -- only 17% could identify Gary Johnson as a former state Governor. And with more than 1/2 of Dems and Reps only voting for their party and not the candidate --- recognition of the campaign will certainly INCREASE these numbers.
Even in these polls -- pay attention to how the numbers add up.. Still 15 to 18% not declaring and EVERYTHING is fluid right now.. So -- what polls are worth (not much) -----
The 2016 Presidential Election Could Have Two Spoiler Candidates
In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this weekend, Hillary Clinton is leading the pack with 39% of likely voters committed to the candidate. Donald Trump came in second with 38%. Johnson took 10% of the vote and Stein received 6%.
Compare those figures with the 2012 election results, when Johnson received around 1% of the popular vote on the Libertarian ticket and Green got 0.36%.
Stein and Johnson are trying to win over voters in very different ways, though. Johnson has mostly opted to play the nice guy, praising both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and being relatively neutral towards Trump. When asked about the three individuals during CNN’s Town Hall, Johnson didn’t say anything negative about either of his opponents. Weld called Trump a “huckster,” but refrained from offering more serious criticisms of Trump’s policies.
Stein, on the other hand, has filled the role of lefty firebrand, speaking out frequently against both Clinton and Trump, often in very harsh language.
Shock CBS Poll: Trump winning Colorado millennials - Red Alert...
Trump is defeating Clinton with Coloradans under age 30, winning 33 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s abysmal 30 percent. That’s right — millennials who overwhelmingly favored (and passed) legislation to legalize marijuana are more likely to back Trump.
While Trump is over-performing, this result is mostly due to the popularity of third-party candidates. Millennials who normally vote Democrat are abandoning the party to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party Jill Stein. Johnson is winning 11 percent of the vote; Stein is winning 3 percent. “Someone else,” “won’t vote,” and “not sure” made up 23 percent of the vote.
Poll: Gary Johnson largely unknown and drawing double digits
In almost every conversation, Johnson has hitched his fate to media polling. Averaging 15 percent in the polls will get him into the presidential debates; to get there, he can't afford being dropped from the poll questions themselves. And a new poll from Morning Consult gives him the numbers he needs to stay relevant.
The poll, conducted last week among 2,001 registered voters, found Johnson polling at 10 percent in a trial heat with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the presumptive major party nominees. Just 31 percent of voters could correctly identify Johnson as a "politician," but just 18 percent knew he was running for president, and just 17 percent knew that his particular experience in politics was "governor." Just 25 percent of voters viewed him favorably and 30 percent unfavorably, with the rest either ignorant or holding no opinion.
But Johnson's 10 percent support remained solid whether he was identified as an "independent" or a "Libertarian." (In some states, like Ohio, he may appear on the ballot with the former.) His base shifted slightly with the description. As "independent," Johnson won 10 percent of "liberal" voters and 10 percent of "conservative" voters. When identified as a Libertarian, Johnson won 14 percent of liberals and 8 percent of conservatives.
In the current RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Johnson is winning 8.5 percent of the vote in a three-way contest. In 2012, his first bid for the White House, Johnson never polled above 5 percent; he won 1 percent of the final vote.
Once folks are aware of the ticket --- it will get more interesting. .With coverage like we're getting --- it won't be long. IF it's significant (and I'm not sure it is) --- that large font part about drawing MORE voters as a Libertarian from liberals --- goes against the common wisdom that we only draw from GOP candidates. But that's a not a surprise to Libertarians. We actually agree with Bernie on blasting out corporate welfare and are concerned with prison reform and more rational foreign policy. And we KNOW we "pull" from both ends.
IMO -- the deal is getting the middle third, the Indies to turn out and get excited. That segment is larger than either of the Dem/Rep wingers, very rejecting of the other 2 choices and looking to punish the 2 major parties for creating this bread and circus atmosphere in the 1st place.
Even in these polls -- pay attention to how the numbers add up.. Still 15 to 18% not declaring and EVERYTHING is fluid right now.. So -- what polls are worth (not much) -----
The 2016 Presidential Election Could Have Two Spoiler Candidates
In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this weekend, Hillary Clinton is leading the pack with 39% of likely voters committed to the candidate. Donald Trump came in second with 38%. Johnson took 10% of the vote and Stein received 6%.
Compare those figures with the 2012 election results, when Johnson received around 1% of the popular vote on the Libertarian ticket and Green got 0.36%.
Stein and Johnson are trying to win over voters in very different ways, though. Johnson has mostly opted to play the nice guy, praising both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and being relatively neutral towards Trump. When asked about the three individuals during CNN’s Town Hall, Johnson didn’t say anything negative about either of his opponents. Weld called Trump a “huckster,” but refrained from offering more serious criticisms of Trump’s policies.
Stein, on the other hand, has filled the role of lefty firebrand, speaking out frequently against both Clinton and Trump, often in very harsh language.
Shock CBS Poll: Trump winning Colorado millennials - Red Alert...
Trump is defeating Clinton with Coloradans under age 30, winning 33 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s abysmal 30 percent. That’s right — millennials who overwhelmingly favored (and passed) legislation to legalize marijuana are more likely to back Trump.
While Trump is over-performing, this result is mostly due to the popularity of third-party candidates. Millennials who normally vote Democrat are abandoning the party to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party Jill Stein. Johnson is winning 11 percent of the vote; Stein is winning 3 percent. “Someone else,” “won’t vote,” and “not sure” made up 23 percent of the vote.
Poll: Gary Johnson largely unknown and drawing double digits
In almost every conversation, Johnson has hitched his fate to media polling. Averaging 15 percent in the polls will get him into the presidential debates; to get there, he can't afford being dropped from the poll questions themselves. And a new poll from Morning Consult gives him the numbers he needs to stay relevant.
The poll, conducted last week among 2,001 registered voters, found Johnson polling at 10 percent in a trial heat with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the presumptive major party nominees. Just 31 percent of voters could correctly identify Johnson as a "politician," but just 18 percent knew he was running for president, and just 17 percent knew that his particular experience in politics was "governor." Just 25 percent of voters viewed him favorably and 30 percent unfavorably, with the rest either ignorant or holding no opinion.
But Johnson's 10 percent support remained solid whether he was identified as an "independent" or a "Libertarian." (In some states, like Ohio, he may appear on the ballot with the former.) His base shifted slightly with the description. As "independent," Johnson won 10 percent of "liberal" voters and 10 percent of "conservative" voters. When identified as a Libertarian, Johnson won 14 percent of liberals and 8 percent of conservatives.
In the current RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Johnson is winning 8.5 percent of the vote in a three-way contest. In 2012, his first bid for the White House, Johnson never polled above 5 percent; he won 1 percent of the final vote.
Once folks are aware of the ticket --- it will get more interesting. .With coverage like we're getting --- it won't be long. IF it's significant (and I'm not sure it is) --- that large font part about drawing MORE voters as a Libertarian from liberals --- goes against the common wisdom that we only draw from GOP candidates. But that's a not a surprise to Libertarians. We actually agree with Bernie on blasting out corporate welfare and are concerned with prison reform and more rational foreign policy. And we KNOW we "pull" from both ends.
IMO -- the deal is getting the middle third, the Indies to turn out and get excited. That segment is larger than either of the Dem/Rep wingers, very rejecting of the other 2 choices and looking to punish the 2 major parties for creating this bread and circus atmosphere in the 1st place.
Last edited:
